{"id":4418,"date":"2021-04-28T09:10:32","date_gmt":"2021-04-28T09:10:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4418"},"modified":"2021-04-28T09:10:32","modified_gmt":"2021-04-28T09:10:32","slug":"expected-points-april-28-the-return-of-naomi-osaka-on-clay","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/04\/28\/expected-points-april-28-the-return-of-naomi-osaka-on-clay\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, April 28: The Return of Naomi Osaka On Clay"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Osaka\u2019s clay-court results suggest greater things in store, Corentin Moutet takes a roundabout path to victory, and Alexander Zverev looks to catch back up with his peers.\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/430372\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today\u2019s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 82%, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NaomiOsaka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Naomi Osaka<\/a>\u2019s winning percentage on clay in 2019, the last season she competed on the surface. The world #2 has made her money on hard courts, winning the Australian Open and the US Open twice each. While she has never reached the final round of any professional clay-court event, she won 9 matches against only 2 losses on the European circuit two years ago. That doesn\u2019t quite add up because there are asterisks involved: She withdrew from a Stuttgart semifinal against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AnettKontaveit\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Anett Kontaveit<\/a> and a Rome quarter versus <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=KikiBertens\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kiki Bertens<\/a>, and she played a single clay-court match in 2020, a stinker of a Fed Cup rubber against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SaraSorribesTormo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sara Sorribes Tormo<\/a> that she lost 6-0 6-3. Osaka is ready to return in Madrid this week, where main-draw action starts tomorrow. The 23-year-old opens her campaign against a qualifier and will likely face a tough test as early as the third round, where she could meet one of Kontaveit, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MariaSakkari\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Maria Sakkari<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AmandaAnisimova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Amanda Anisimova<\/a>. Perhaps Osaka watched <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AshleighBarty\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ashleigh Barty<\/a> win last week\u2019s Stuttgart and thought it could\u2019ve been her. Based on her results when she\u2019s healthy enough to play, the idea of a clay title for the Japanese star isn\u2019t so far-fetched.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 9, the number of match points required by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=CorentinMoutet\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Corentin Moutet<\/a> to put away Marcus Giron in Estoril yesterday. Moutet should\u2019ve had reason to expect a routine first-rounder, as he has multiple clay-court challenger titles to his name, and the American is playing only his second tour-level main draw on the surface. About two hours into the match, it still looked fairly straightforward: Moutet won the first set 6-4 and held a 6-2 advantage in the second-set tiebreak. Four points later, the Frenchman had lost four match points, and four points after that, Giron evened things up. Moutet nearly made a similar mess 10 games later needing five break points before he finally secured the decider, 6-4. According to Voo de Mar on Twitter, this isn\u2019t a record\u2014<a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=EvgenyKorolev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Evgeny Korolev<\/a> needed 12 match points to seal a victory back in 2008. But after three hours of play yesterday, Moutet was surely content to advance, record or not.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s third and final number is 5, the clay-court Elo ranking of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AlexanderZverev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alexander Zverev<\/a>, who leads the field this week in Munich. The 2021 exploits of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AndreyRublev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Andrey Rublev<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JannikSinner\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jannik Sinner<\/a>, and the recent clay-court successes of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=StefanosTsitsipas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stefanos Tsitsipas<\/a> have pushed the German out of the spotlight, even though the 24-year-old remains firmly in the top ten and has been winning Masters 1000 events on multiple surfaces since 2017. A little time in the background may not be unwelcome: Much of Zverev\u2019s press lately has focused on his behavior off the court, including accusations of domestic violence, a baby born to an estranged girlfriend, and a legal case regarding his shuffling of management teams. His on-court results haven\u2019t unduly suffered\u2014he won Acapulco last month, and in a six-event stretch between October and January, his only losses came against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DaniilMedvedev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Daniil Medvedev<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NovakDjokovic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Novak Djokovic<\/a>. The Tennis Abstract Elo forecast gives him a 44% chance of winning the title this week, starting with a match today against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RicardasBerankis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ricardas Berankis<\/a>, a fish out of water on clay. The 250-level title would be a good start, but to get his name back in headlines for positive reasons, he\u2019ll need some bigger results at the upcoming Masters events in Madrid and Rome.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Osaka\u2019s clay-court results suggest greater things in store, Corentin Moutet takes a roundabout path to victory, and Alexander Zverev looks to catch back up with his peers. Scroll down for a transcript. You &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/04\/28\/expected-points-april-28-the-return-of-naomi-osaka-on-clay\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, April 28: The Return of Naomi Osaka On Clay<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4418","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4418"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4418\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4418"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4418"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4418"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}