{"id":4426,"date":"2021-05-04T07:42:23","date_gmt":"2021-05-04T07:42:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4426"},"modified":"2021-05-04T07:42:23","modified_gmt":"2021-05-04T07:42:23","slug":"expected-points-may-4-albert-ramos-dominates-his-own-kind","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/05\/04\/expected-points-may-4-albert-ramos-dominates-his-own-kind\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, May 4: Albert Ramos Dominates His Own Kind"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Ramos wins his third ATP title against left-handed competition, Petra Kvitova guns for another upset in Madrid, and Marcos Giron is the hardest-working man on the Iberian peninsula.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/435657\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today\u2019s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 64.5%, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AlbertRamos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Albert Ramos<\/a>\u2019s career winning percentage against lefties. While a couple dozen active players have more success against southpaws, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RafaelNadal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rafael Nadal<\/a> is the only active left-hander with a better record against same-side opponents. Nadal\u2019s mark isn\u2019t so much a handedness preference as a tendency to dominate everyone, so Ramos stands out for the discrepancy between his win rates against lefties and righties. Ramos wins fewer than 45% of his tour-level matches against righties, and all three of his ATP titles\u2014including his victory on Sunday in Estoril\u2014have come against fellow portsiders. The Estoril Open draw was tailor-made for the Spaniard: three of his five opponents were lefties, from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=FernandoVerdasco\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fernando Verdasco<\/a> in the first round to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=CorentinMoutet\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Corentin Moutet<\/a> in the quarters to Cam Norrie in the title match. Unfortunately for the latest member of the ATP winner\u2019s circle, lefties are only slightly more common on tour than in the population in general. And even worse, some of them have Ramos figured out. His previous final was in Cordoba, where he lost to the 19-year-old southpaw <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JuanManuelCerundolo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Juan Manuel Cerundolo<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 32, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=PetraKvitova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Petra Kvitova<\/a>\u2019s career main-draw win total in Madrid. The Czech\u2019s boom-or-bust game style is better associated with grass courts, where she has won two major titles, but the moderate altitude and quick clay in Madrid seems to be the next-best thing. Kvitova won the title here in 2011, 2015, and 2018, and owns a 5-3 record against the top ten at the event, including upsets of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SerenaWilliams\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Serena Williams<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=VictoriaAzarenka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Victoria Azarenka<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/wplayer.cgi?p=NaLi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Li Na<\/a>. The six-foot lefty faced her first test of this year\u2019s tournament yesterday, coming through against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=VeronikaKudermetova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Veronika Kudermetova<\/a> in three sets to earn a place in the quarter-finals and chance for another Madrid upset against world #1 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AshleighBarty\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ashleigh Barty<\/a>. The two slam winners have played nine times, but none of their previous meetings seem particularly relevant: eight are on hard courts, and the ninth was in 2012, when Barty was still dreaming of a career in professional cricket. The Australian is now the better player, regardless of surface, and the Tennis Abstract forecast gives her a 65% edge tomorrow. Yet Madrid has always been the least dirtbally of the big European clay stops, a quirkiness that seems to play right into Petra\u2019s strengths.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s third and final number is 6, the number of tiebreaks played by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MarcosGiron\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Marcos Giron<\/a> in the last week. Giron, a 27-year-old American ranked 91st in the world, has been the hardest working man on the Iberian peninsula over the last seven days, with three matches in Estoril and Madrid running over the three-hour mark, and a fourth lasting two hours before Yoshi Nishioka retired at the start of a third set. Yesterday\u2019s match against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=PabloAndujar\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pablo Andujar<\/a> was the longest of the bunch, at three hours, 21 minutes, and it illustrates the most impressive aspect of Giron\u2019s run. A man with little experience on European clay is keeping up with guys like Andujar, Corentin Moutet, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ThiagoMonteiro\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Thiago Monteiro<\/a> who know it well. The American\u2019s margins are small, as is clear from yesterday\u2019s 6-7, 7-6, 7-5 scoreline, but expectations are low: Any U.S. player gets automatic respect for showing up to a non-mandatory clay-court event, and Giron\u2019s three wins in Madrid already set a high bar for other American aspirants to clear. Anything he does in the next round is gravy, which is for the best, since he\u2019ll go head-to-head with two-time French Open runner-up <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DominicThiem\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Dominic Thiem<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Ramos wins his third ATP title against left-handed competition, Petra Kvitova guns for another upset in Madrid, and Marcos Giron is the hardest-working man on the Iberian peninsula. Scroll down for a transcript. &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/05\/04\/expected-points-may-4-albert-ramos-dominates-his-own-kind\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, May 4: Albert Ramos Dominates His Own Kind<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4426","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4426","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4426"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4426\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4426"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4426"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4426"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}