{"id":4460,"date":"2021-05-24T08:26:50","date_gmt":"2021-05-24T08:26:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4460"},"modified":"2021-05-24T08:26:50","modified_gmt":"2021-05-24T08:26:50","slug":"expected-points-may-24-denis-shapovalov-serves-big-on-clay","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/05\/24\/expected-points-may-24-denis-shapovalov-serves-big-on-clay\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, May 24: Denis Shapovalov Serves Big On Clay"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Shapo falls short of the Geneva title despite some outstanding first-strike tennis, Ana Konjuh takes an unlikely step in her comeback, and it was a big weekend for the Shelton family at the NCAA championships.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/455701\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today\u2019s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 35%, the fraction of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DenisShapovalov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Denis Shapovalov<\/a>\u2019s serves\u2014first and second\u2014that didn\u2019t come back in Saturday\u2019s Geneva final against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=CasperRuud\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Casper Ruud<\/a>. Except for five double faults, Shapo\u2019s pure serving performance was outstanding for a clay court, as he won another 18% of his serve points with his second shot. Alas, everything else went the way of the Norwegian, with Ruud winning 62% of points four strokes or longer and more than holding his own on serve, not allowing the Canadian a single break point. It\u2019s tough to say whether Shapovalov is truly adapting to the clay\u2014he couldn\u2019t outslug Ruud from the baseline, and he lost 8 of his 12 net approaches. Yet the results suggest he\u2019s getting there: This week was his first final on the surface, and it included wins over more traditional dirtballers <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MarcoCecchinato\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Marco Cecchinato<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=LasloDjere\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Laslo Djere<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=PabloCuevas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pablo Cuevas<\/a>. Unfortunately, the momentum will go to waste: Shapovalov withdrew from the French Open yesterday, resting an ailing shoulder and saving his bullets for friendlier surfaces.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 79%, the rate at which <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AnaKonjuh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ana Konjuh<\/a> has won clay-court matches since the restart. The 23-year-old Croatian has always preferred fast courts, entering the spring with just 22 clay contests out of 133 tour-level matches. Yet recent results may inspire her to shift her priorities. She kicked off her comeback last September with a title on clay at an ITF $25K in Zagreb, reached a quarter-final in Istanbul last month, and set a new career-best on the surface by qualifying and reaching the final in Belgrade last week. All told, it\u2019s 15 wins against only four losses. Her triumphant week in Belgrade ended with a whimper, as she retired down a set and a break to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=PaulaBadosa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Paula Badosa<\/a> in the final. But having gone nearly 3 years without a tour-level win due to injury before March, her takeaways from Serbia are overwhelmingly positive. She knocked out two top-50 players in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=YuliaPutintseva\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Yulia Putintseva<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NadiaPodoroska\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nadia Podoroska<\/a>, and perhaps most important, her body held up through six wins in eight days, a challenge enhanced by rain delays throughout the week. The resilient Croatian may never become a force on dirt, but if the surprise clay-court showing is any indication, she could eventually regain a spot in the top 20. <\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s third and final number is 33 years, the span of time since <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=BryanShelton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bryan Shelton<\/a> was named an All-American for his tennis performance at Georgia Tech. After a professional career that included two Newport titles and a fourth-round result at Wimbledon in 1994, Shelton coached the women\u2019s team at his alma mater, leading the Yellow Jackets to a national title in 2007. He\u2019s now the head coach of the men\u2019s squad at the University of Florida, which won the NCAA team championship on Saturday. Clinching the title for the Gators over the Baylor Bears was freshman Ben Shelton, Bryan\u2019s son, playing #5 singles. The elder Shelton was a rarity in the 1990s, a tour-level player with a college degree. While diplomas remain unusual in today\u2019s ATP, players with collegiate experience abound. Concurrent with the American team event, two NCAA products\u2014Cam Norrie of Britain and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ArthurRinderknech\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arthur Rinderknech<\/a> of France\u2014battled for a semi-final spot in Lyon, and Norrie ultimately reached his second clay-court final of the season. The gap between #5 singles in Gainesville and top-50 in the world is enormous, but Ben Shelton has at least one advantage: an excellent coach.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Shapo falls short of the Geneva title despite some outstanding first-strike tennis, Ana Konjuh takes an unlikely step in her comeback, and it was a big weekend for the Shelton family at the &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/05\/24\/expected-points-may-24-denis-shapovalov-serves-big-on-clay\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, May 24: Denis Shapovalov Serves Big On Clay<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4460","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4460"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4460\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4460"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4460"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4460"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}