{"id":4462,"date":"2021-05-25T06:53:29","date_gmt":"2021-05-25T06:53:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4462"},"modified":"2021-05-25T06:53:29","modified_gmt":"2021-05-25T06:53:29","slug":"expected-points-may-25-vera-zvonareva-aims-to-qualify-like-its-2002","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/05\/25\/expected-points-may-25-vera-zvonareva-aims-to-qualify-like-its-2002\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, May 25: Vera Zvonareva Aims To Qualify Like It\u2019s 2002"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Casper Ruud will be a top-16 seed with a top-10 game in Paris, Zvonareva is the top seed in Roland Garros qualies, and the development of Diane Parry\u2019s game is taking place is full view.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/457500\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today\u2019s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 1.9%, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=CasperRuud\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Casper Ruud<\/a>\u2019s chance of winning the French Open, according to an early forecast based on Tennis Abstract Elo ratings. With his title in Geneva last week, the Norwegian #1 improved to 16th in the ATP rankings and 10th on my Elo list. Much of Ruud\u2019s true probability of going deep will depend on the luck of the draw this week. Set to be seeded between 13 and 16, he\u2019ll line up to face a top-four seed in the fourth round. If that turns out to be <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RafaelNadal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rafael Nadal<\/a> or <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NovakDjokovic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Novak Djokovic<\/a>, it probably won\u2019t be Casper\u2019s year. If it\u2019s the clay-phobic <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DaniilMedvedev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Daniil Medvedev<\/a> or the out-of-form <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DominicThiem\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Dominic Thiem<\/a>, the door will be open. The 22-year-old is 15 and 4 on clay this spring, with six top-20 wins and pair of Masters semi-finals. In a top-heavy field where the favorites are Rafa, Rafa, and Rafa, everyone else is a dark horse. Yet aside from a handful of men with single-digit seeds next to their names, Ruud is the only underdog with a non-negligible chance to dethrone him. <\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 19, the number of years since a 17-year-old <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=VeraZvonareva\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Vera Zvonareva<\/a> qualified in her first appearance at Roland Garros. After losing to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MonicaNiculescu\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Monica Niculescu<\/a> in the final round of the feeder tournament last fall, she\u2019s the top seed in this year\u2019s qualifying draw. Yesterday, she advanced easily past <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=FrancescaJones\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Francesca Jones<\/a>, winning 6-1 6-2 in 72 minutes. Back in 2002, the Russian rode the momentum to her first deep run at a major, beating <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=FrancescaSchiavone\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Francesca Schiavone<\/a> in the third round and taking a set from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SerenaWilliams\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Serena Williams<\/a> in the fourth. Five years after giving birth and playing her busiest schedule in nearly a decade, the 36-year-old Russian is once again a threat on the Parisian clay. She\u2019s 7-3 on dirt this spring, including a win over <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=PetraKvitova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Petra Kvitova<\/a> in Rome. With an improved ranking after the Italian, if the French Open entry deadline were today, Zvonareva would merit a spot in the main draw. As it is, it\u2019s bad luck for Jones and for Miriam Bolkvadze, her next opponent. The biggest remaining obstacle in the veteran\u2019s path to the main draw is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AnnaKarolinaSchmiedlova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Anna Karolina Schmiedlova<\/a>, a sometimes dangerous player who Zvonareva defeated just last month in Madrid qualifying.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s third and final number is 218, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DianeParry\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Diane Parry<\/a>\u2019s rank on the Tennis Abstract Elo list. It\u2019s better than her position at #291 on the WTA computer, but it\u2019s nothing to be proud of: She\u2019s dead last among the 218 women with 10 or more matches at the ITF $60K level or above since the restart. The French 18-year-old with the one-handed backhand is a former junior number one, and like any promising French youngster, she\u2019s been wild-carded a slew of tour-level opportunities before her game is ready. Parry suffered an eight-match losing streak last fall, including a first-rounder at Roland Garros, and she\u2019s lost her last six matches as a wild card at all levels. She\u2019s on court today in Strasbourg, where she may have drawn an opponent she can handle: fellow qualifier <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JuleNiemeier\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jule Niemeier<\/a>, a German 21-year-old also ranked outside the top 200. If that doesn\u2019t work out, she won\u2019t have to wait long for another match: The French Open gave her a main draw wild card for the third straight year.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Casper Ruud will be a top-16 seed with a top-10 game in Paris, Zvonareva is the top seed in Roland Garros qualies, and the development of Diane Parry\u2019s game is taking place is &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/05\/25\/expected-points-may-25-vera-zvonareva-aims-to-qualify-like-its-2002\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, May 25: Vera Zvonareva Aims To Qualify Like It\u2019s 2002<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4462"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4462\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}