{"id":4475,"date":"2021-05-28T07:47:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-28T07:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4475"},"modified":"2021-05-28T07:47:00","modified_gmt":"2021-05-28T07:47:00","slug":"expected-points-may-28-the-draw-gods-smile-on-stefanos-tsitsipas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/05\/28\/expected-points-may-28-the-draw-gods-smile-on-stefanos-tsitsipas\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, May 28: The Draw Gods Smile on Stefanos Tsitsipas"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Tsitsipas is the favorite to reach the Roland Garros final from the bottom half of the bracket, Aryna Sabalenka leads a long list of women with a good shot to win a first major title, and Carlos Taberner looks to ride a dominant qualifying performance into the main draw.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/460614\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today\u2019s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 62%, the probability that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=StefanosTsitsipas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stefanos Tsitsipas<\/a> or <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AlexanderZverev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alexander Zverev<\/a> will reach the Roland Garros final, according to the Elo-based Tennis Abstract forecast for the tournament. Favorites <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NovakDjokovic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Novak Djokovic<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RafaelNadal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rafael Nadal<\/a> both landed in the top half, and while two-time runner-up <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DominicThiem\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Dominic Thiem<\/a> is in the bottom, his recent form hardly guarantees another trip to the title match. The biggest winner is Tsitsipas, who is still seeking his first grand slam final and has been outstanding on clay this season. Overcoming the obstacles in his path is literally a tall order: He could face 20-year-old <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SebastianKorda\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sebastian Korda<\/a> in the second round, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JohnIsner\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">John Isner<\/a> in the third, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MilosRaonic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Milos Raonic<\/a> in the fourth, and one of the many players who could emerge from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DaniilMedvedev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Daniil Medvedev<\/a>\u2019s section to face Tsitsipas in the quarters is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ReillyOpelka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reilly Opelka<\/a>. And then, if all goes according to the script as written by Elo, it\u2019ll be a Zverev-Tsitsipas semifinal. The winner gets bragging rights, and\u2014let\u2019s be honest\u2014a chance to maybe take a set from Nadal in the final.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 41%, the chance that the French Open women\u2019s draw will deliver a first-time grand slam champion. 2018 champion <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SimonaHalep\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Simona Halep<\/a> is out with injury, but that still leaves 14 former major titlists in the draw, including six women who have won at Roland Garros. Sportsbooks give the nod to defending champ <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=IgaSwiatek\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Iga Swiatek<\/a>, while my Elo-based model prefers 2019 winner <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AshleighBarty\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ashleigh Barty<\/a>, crediting the Australian with a one-in-four chance of hoisting the trophy in two weeks\u2019 time. The Tennis Abstract forecast identifies eight women still seeking a slam whose chance of ascending the peak in Paris is at least one-in-100, a threshold that 9 of the former major winners don\u2019t meet. Foremost among the aspirants is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ArynaSabalenka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Aryna Sabalenka<\/a>, third favorite overall with a 10% chance of coming out on top, and not far down the list is 17-year-old Coco Gauff, a one-in-37 longshot. Thanks to Barty\u2019s outstanding clay-court season, the field isn\u2019t quite the free-for-all of some recent slams. But the talent pool is so deep that it\u2019s almost even odds that yet another debutante will triumph.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s third and final number is 6, the number of games lost by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=CarlosTaberner\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Carlos Taberner<\/a> in three rounds of qualifying this week. Taberner, a 23-year-old Spaniard ranked 137th in the world, was playing his sixth career grand slam qualifying draw, and has advanced to the main event for only the second time. In 2018, he fought through two three-setters just to earn a first-round match against Stefanos Tsitsipas, in which he eked out one set. In the intervening three years, he\u2019s only faced 10 top-100 opponents, losing more than half the time. This week, he\u2019s been a completely different player. Taberner won 6-1, 6-2, 6-2, 6-0, 6-1, 6-0, averaging less than 70 minutes per match against opponents including grand slam veterans <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MartinKlizan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Martin Klizan<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ThomasFabbiano\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Thomas Fabbiano<\/a>. Qualifying play isn\u2019t complete, so while Taberner has earned his main draw spot, his next challenge has yet to be determined. Potential first-rounders include meetings with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AslanKaratsev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Aslan Karatsev<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MatteoBerrettini\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Matteo Berrettini<\/a>, or <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RogerFederer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Roger Federer<\/a>, all of whom would be favored against a guy with a triple-digit ranking. Yet even a top-ten player would prefer that the qualifier placed next to him in the draw isn\u2019t someone playing quite this well.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Tsitsipas is the favorite to reach the Roland Garros final from the bottom half of the bracket, Aryna Sabalenka leads a long list of women with a good shot to win a first &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/05\/28\/expected-points-may-28-the-draw-gods-smile-on-stefanos-tsitsipas\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, May 28: The Draw Gods Smile on Stefanos Tsitsipas<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4475","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4475"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4475\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4475"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4475"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4475"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}