{"id":4490,"date":"2021-06-04T08:48:38","date_gmt":"2021-06-04T08:48:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4490"},"modified":"2021-06-04T08:48:38","modified_gmt":"2021-06-04T08:48:38","slug":"expected-points-june-4-iga-swiatek-races-into-the-history-books","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/06\/04\/expected-points-june-4-iga-swiatek-races-into-the-history-books\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, June 4: Iga Swiatek Races Into the History Books"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Iga sets her sights on an impressive record held by Justine Henin, Philipp Kohlschreiber might just make it to Tokyo, and a pair of extreme longshots set up lopsided battles in the men\u2019s third round.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/467089\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today\u2019s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 40, the consecutive sets won by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JustineHenin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Justine Henin<\/a> at Roland Garros between 2005 and 2010. After dropping the second set to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SvetlanaKuznetsova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Svetlana Kuznetsova<\/a> in the fourth round of the \u201905 French Open, Henin wouldn\u2019t lose another set until she played <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MariaSharapova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Maria Sharapova<\/a> in the third round in 2010. She won that match, too, though Sam Stosur finally stopped her in the following round. Between those two blips, the Belgian won 19 consecutive straight-setters, claiming three titles. Now, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=IgaSwiatek\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Iga Swiatek<\/a> is on a streak of her own, with 18 straight sets won at Roland Garros after dispatching <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RebeccaPeterson\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rebecca Peterson<\/a> last night. Her streak is seventh longest at the tournament among Open Era women, and she can move up two more places with a win against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AnettKontaveit\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Anett Kontaveit<\/a> this weekend. Should Swiatek manage another blemish-free title and extend her streak to 28, she\u2019ll overtake <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SteffiGraf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Steffi Graf<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ArantxaSanchezVicario\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ArantxaSanchez\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arantxa Sanchez<\/a> Vicario, each of whom ran off 26 straight sets and are currently tied for the second-longest French Open streak. It\u2019s a bit early to start placing odds on whether Iga will ultimately tie Henin at 40, but even if she stumbles against Kontaveit, she\u2019s already played her way into elite company.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 2, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=PhilippKohlschreiber\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Philipp Kohlschreiber<\/a>\u2019s win total against top-100 players since the restart last summer. Both of those wins have come in the last three days, as Kohlschreiber knocked out <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=FernandoVerdasco\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fernando Verdasco<\/a> and 24th seed <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AslanKaratsev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Aslan Karatsev<\/a> to reach the Roland Garros third round. The German hadn\u2019t won back-to-back matches at a tour level event since Rome two years ago, and it\u2019s his first grand slam third round since the US Open in 2018. At age 37, Kohlschreiber\u2019s recent descent out of the top 100 and into Challenger draws appeared permanent, as he has missed time to a hip injury and struggled to string wins together even against second-tier competition. But he has one near-term motivation: to qualify for the Tokyo Olympics. At the moment, he\u2019s ranked fifth among Germans, which isn\u2019t good enough. In an interview at the Heilbronn Challenger last month, he said that a French Open quarter-final would get him into position. Outlandish as it sounded at the time, his math was right. He\u2019s two wins away from overtaking <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=YannickHanfmann\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Yannick Hanfmann<\/a> as the German #4 and possibly earning that trip to Japan.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s third and final number is 251st, Kwon Soonwoo\u2019s ranking in my clay-only Elo ratings. Kwon, a 23-year-old from Korea, has played only 21 professional clay-court matches, losing more than half of them. All of this makes him the biggest surprise in this year\u2019s French Open third round after overcoming veterans <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=KevinAnderson\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kevin Anderson<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AndreasSeppi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Andreas Seppi<\/a>. Kwon\u2019s unexpected run will surely end soon, as he faces 9th seed <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MatteoBerrettini\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Matteo Berrettini<\/a> in the third round. But according to my forecast, he isn\u2019t the man with the most hopeless odds of reaching the round of 16. That honor belongs to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RicardasBerankis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ricardas Berankis<\/a>, a hard-court specialist who knocked out the even more clay-phobic <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=UgoHumbert\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ugo Humbert<\/a> in the opening round. Like Kwon, Berankis ranks outside the top 100 in my clay-specific ratings, but his biggest problem tomorrow will be the man on the other side of the net, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NovakDjokovic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Novak Djokovic<\/a>. Berankis and Djokovic met in the Roland Garros second round last fall, and the contest\u2014if you can call it that\u2014lasted all of 83 minutes. For either Berankis or Kwon, reaching the 90-minute mark on Saturday will mean it\u2019s been a good day on the clay.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Iga sets her sights on an impressive record held by Justine Henin, Philipp Kohlschreiber might just make it to Tokyo, and a pair of extreme longshots set up lopsided battles in the men\u2019s &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/06\/04\/expected-points-june-4-iga-swiatek-races-into-the-history-books\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, June 4: Iga Swiatek Races Into the History Books<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4490","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4490","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4490"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4490\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4490"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4490"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4490"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}