{"id":4494,"date":"2021-06-08T08:12:07","date_gmt":"2021-06-08T08:12:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4494"},"modified":"2021-06-08T08:12:07","modified_gmt":"2021-06-08T08:12:07","slug":"expected-points-june-8-the-return-of-diego-schwartzman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/06\/08\/expected-points-june-8-the-return-of-diego-schwartzman\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, June 8: The Return of Diego Schwartzman"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Schwartzman is once again negating the server advantage, Elena Rybakina beat Serena by playing like Serena, and Daniil Medvedev aims to remain unbeaten in clay-court quarter-finals.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/471308\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today\u2019s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 28, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DiegoSebastianSchwartzman\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Diego Schwartzman<\/a>\u2019s breaks of serve in his four French Open matches so far. That\u2019s more than two per set, including 8 against the big-serving <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JanLennardStruff\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jan Lennard Struff<\/a> yesterday. Schwartzman had struggled since reached the final four in Paris last fall and carried a four-match losing streak into Roland Garros last week. But thanks to a soft draw and perhaps some good memories, El Peque has won 12 straight sets to earn a rematch of last year\u2019s semifinal with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RafaelNadal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rafael Nadal<\/a>. He\u2019s gotten this far by reviving his brilliant returning form, an aspect of his game that eluded him for much of the European clay season. In five losses in the last two months, he never won more than 37% of return points, hitting a nadir of 22% against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=CasperRuud\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Casper Ruud<\/a> in Monte Carlo. At the French so far, he\u2019s won 51% of his opponents\u2019 serve points, including 47% yesterday against Struff. It\u2019s hard to imagine Schwartzman surprising Nadal tomorrow, as Rafa leads the head-to-head 10 to 1, including a straight-setter in Paris eight months ago. But Diego looks to stand a much better chance than he would have just a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 40%, the rate at which <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ElenaRybakina\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Elena Rybakina<\/a>\u2019s first serves didn\u2019t come back on Sunday in her fourth-round match against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SerenaWilliams\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Serena Williams<\/a>. Serena was a longshot to win her 24th grand slam at Roland Garros, but few observers pegged Rybakina as the one to beat her. The 21-year-old representing Kazakhstan turned Serena\u2019s game plan against her, serving big, hitting forehand winners when the serves dared to come back, and shrugging off the inevitable errors. Rybakina\u2019s average first serve was harder than Williams\u2019s, and she hit more winners. The key was finishing so many points before they started. According to Match Charting Project data, the average tour player\u2019s first serves are unreturned less than 20% of the time on clay, and while Rybakina has occasionally approached 50% unreturned on hard court, she\u2019s sometimes below tour average on a slow surface. In the quarters today, Rybakina faces <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AnastasiaPavlyuchenkova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova<\/a>. Pavs is surely relieved to avoid Williams, who has beaten her in all six of their meetings. But the relief may not last, as this week, Rybakina is playing a bit like Serena herself.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s third and final number is 100%, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DaniilMedvedev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Daniil Medvedev<\/a>\u2019s winning percentage in clay-court quarter-finals. Medvedev finds himself in another one today as the underdog against fifth-seed <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=StefanosTsitsipas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stefanos Tsitsipas<\/a>, despite holding the #2 seed himself. Tsitsipas has excelled on the clay this season, winning Monte Carlo and nearly dethroning Rafael Nadal in Barcelona, while Medvedev\u2019s spring highlights have largely consisted of off-the-cuff remarks about how much he hates the surface. Yet the Russian has dropped only one set in the first four rounds, breaking <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ReillyOpelka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reilly Opelka<\/a> five times and easily dispatching Cristian Garin on Sunday. His career record on clay is a meager 15-20, but this isn\u2019t his first streak. In 2019, he beat Tsitsipas and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NovakDjokovic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Novak Djokovic<\/a> to reach the Monte Carlo semifinal, then backed it up with a runner-up showing the following week in Barcelona, reaching and winning the only two clay-court quarter-finals of his career. He\u2019s barely won a match on the surface since, but Medvedev has the patience and creativity to excel on slow surfaces, even if the bounce doesn\u2019t favor his flat groundstrokes. Today, fans will expect little from the Russian, but Tsitsipas surely knows better, having lost that single clay-court encounter against him.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Schwartzman is once again negating the server advantage, Elena Rybakina beat Serena by playing like Serena, and Daniil Medvedev aims to remain unbeaten in clay-court quarter-finals. Scroll down for a transcript. You can &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/06\/08\/expected-points-june-8-the-return-of-diego-schwartzman\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, June 8: The Return of Diego Schwartzman<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4494","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4494","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4494"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4494\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4494"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4494"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4494"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}