{"id":4499,"date":"2021-06-09T09:04:56","date_gmt":"2021-06-09T09:04:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4499"},"modified":"2021-06-09T09:04:56","modified_gmt":"2021-06-09T09:04:56","slug":"expected-points-june-9-matteo-berrettini-seeks-revenge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/06\/09\/expected-points-june-9-matteo-berrettini-seeks-revenge\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, June 9: Matteo Berrettini Seeks Revenge"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Berrettini was crushed by Novak Djokovic last time they played, today\u2019s women\u2019s quarterfinals feature a quartet of players who cruised through their last matches, and the WTA ranking system is barely rewarding this week\u2019s stars.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/471956\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today\u2019s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 288 minutes, the amount of time it took to play four fourth-round women\u2019s matches on Monday. By contrast, Tuesday\u2019s slate featured only the two bottom-half quarter-finals, a pair of marathons that combined to last 16 minutes longer, a total of 5 hours and 4 minutes. With the exception of defending champion <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=IgaSwiatek\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Iga Swiatek<\/a>, Monday\u2019s top-half winners were hardly obvious favorites. Doubles star <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=BarboraKrejcikova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Barbora Krejcikova<\/a> brushed aside former slam champ <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SloaneStephens\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sloane Stephens<\/a> in 70 minutes, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MariaSakkari\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Maria Sakkari<\/a> beat another major titlist, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SofiaKenin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sofia Kenin<\/a>, in 69, and Coco Gauff needed less than an hour to get past dropshot master <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=OnsJabeur\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ons Jabeur<\/a>. The four speedy winners are back on court today. They\u2019re unlikely to deliver anything quite like yesterday\u2019s quarter-final slate, in which both matches went past 6-all in the decider. But the pairings of Swiatek-Sakkari and Gauff-Krejcikova feature in-form players who won\u2019t let each other off easily. Maria Sakkari is particularly reliable when it comes to putting up a fight: Her last four losses went three sets, and she hasn\u2019t dropped a straight-setter since early March, when Krejcikova beat her in Dubai. The way Iga is playing, keeping that three-set streak going would be just as impressive as an easy win against anyone else.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 65.9%, the fraction of total points won by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NovakDjokovic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Novak Djokovic<\/a> in his one previous meeting with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MatteoBerrettini\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Matteo Berrettini<\/a>. The pair will have a rematch in the night session today. The first Djokovic-Berrettini encounter came at the 2019 Tour Finals, where the Italian was a newcomer and found himself overmatched by Novak, losing 6-2 6-1 in 63 minutes. Djokovic won 57 matches that year, but the lopsided contest in London was one of only three in which he won at least 65% of total points. Berrettini has become known for an effective brand of two-strike tennis: If his serve doesn\u2019t beat you, the next shot will. According to Match Charting Project data, he wins 40% of his serve points on his first or second shot, and is nearly as decisive on clay. Against Djokovic in 2019, he won fewer than one-fifth of serve points on his first or second shot. The world #1 has a way of doing that to opponents, though the effect is not often so extreme. Of the two men\u2019s quarter-finals today, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RafaelNadal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rafael Nadal<\/a>&#8211;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DiegoSebastianSchwartzman\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Diego Schwartzman<\/a> tilt looks more lopsided, but Berrettini has a lot of ground to make up to challenge Djokovic. <\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s third and final number is 0, the number of women currently set to crack the WTA top 20 based on breakout performances at Roland Garros. Six of the eight quarter-finalists reached the final eight in Paris for the first time, and five of them started the fortnight ranked outside the top 20. Yet due to the hybrid post-pandemic ranking system, a French Open quarter-final isn\u2019t worth as much as usual. The stat could change by the end of day: if Coco Gauff wins, she\u2019ll move up to a provisional #17 from her previous career best of 25. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AnastasiaPavlyuchenkova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova<\/a> could return to the top 20 with one more win, and Barbora Krejcikova could join the club if she reaches the final. Remarkably, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=TamaraZidansek\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tamara Zidansek<\/a>, a semifinalist after yesterday\u2019s marathon victory, can\u2019t climb any higher than 23rd even if she wins the whole tournament. The rankings desperately need a post-pandemic reboot, but of equal import is the unpredictability of the field. Call it \u201cdepth\u201d if you approve, \u201cchaos\u201d if you don\u2019t\u2014with all these streaking players ranked so low, we can expect an upset-filled summer in which seeds are little more than reminders of long-ago triumphs.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Berrettini was crushed by Novak Djokovic last time they played, today\u2019s women\u2019s quarterfinals feature a quartet of players who cruised through their last matches, and the WTA ranking system is barely rewarding this &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/06\/09\/expected-points-june-9-matteo-berrettini-seeks-revenge\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, June 9: Matteo Berrettini Seeks Revenge<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4499","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4499"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4499\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4499"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4499"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}