{"id":4508,"date":"2021-06-15T10:43:41","date_gmt":"2021-06-15T10:43:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4508"},"modified":"2021-06-15T10:43:41","modified_gmt":"2021-06-15T10:43:41","slug":"expected-points-june-15-the-man-who-almost-beat-both-federer-and-nadal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/06\/15\/expected-points-june-15-the-man-who-almost-beat-both-federer-and-nadal\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, June 15: The Man Who Almost Beat Both Federer and Nadal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Ilya Ivashka posts another career-best performance in a losing effort, Barbora Krejcikova has risen the ranks with unusually good clutch play, and Jannik Sinner suffered a dose of his own medicine.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/480350\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today\u2019s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 90, the ATP ranking of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=IlyaIvashka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ilya Ivashka<\/a>. Ivashka is a 27-year-old from Belarus with four challenger titles to his name, and he\u2019s hovering in the vicinity of his career-high ranking of #80. His best win came in Munich this spring, where he knocked out <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AlexanderZverev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alexander Zverev<\/a>. But his best performance might be either of two matches he\u2019s lost this year. In April, he drew <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RafaelNadal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rafael Nadal<\/a> in the second round in Barcelona, and he pushed Rafa to a third set, becoming only the 8th man to take a set from Rafa at his almost-home tournament. Challenging the King of clay on his favorite surface wasn\u2019t enough for Ivashka, who won exactly half of the points he played yesterday against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RogerFederer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Roger Federer<\/a> on grass. As in Barcelona, the underdog came up short, this time losing 7-6 7-5. Ivashka\u2019s 31-48 career record against the top 100 suggests his modest ranking is about right, but his ability to hang with the best players in the game has made him one of the names that the elites would prefer to see in the other half of the draw.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 63.3%, the rate at which <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=BarboraKrejcikova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Barbora Krejcikova<\/a> has saved break points since the restart last August. Players in the WTA top 50 average 57.5%, and in the last year, only <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NaomiOsaka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Naomi Osaka<\/a> has canceled out her opponents\u2019 break chances at a higher rate. Krejcikova has been clutch\u2014or, if you\u2019re as skeptical of that word as I am, she\u2019s been very, very lucky. The Roland Garros champion ranks 13th among women in overall serve points won, with an even 60%, yet she trails only five other players in the more impactful hold percentage category. It isn\u2019t because Krejcikova serves more effectively in the ad court, where most break points are played. 15 of her matches have been logged by the Match Charting Project, and in those, she wins four percentage points more often in the deuce court. Most players with such disproportionate success on important points eventually fall back to earth. Common sense says Krejcikova will do the same, but after watching her stare down five set points against Coco Gauff and a match point against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MariaSakkari\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Maria Sakkari<\/a> last week, it\u2019s possible for even the most hardened skeptic to believe that clutch is real.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s third and final number is 81, the number of matches <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JannikSinner\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jannik Sinner<\/a> has played in ATP tour main draws. 81 is also the number of matches he\u2019s played against older opponents. Sinner is two months away from his 20th birthday and the only teenager in the top 60, and it took him until yesterday to finally draw a younger opponent. His first-round foe at Queen\u2019s Club was <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JackDraper\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jack Draper<\/a>, a British wild card ranked 309th in the world, and four months younger than the Italian. While Sinner\u2019s record against his elders is a sterling 50-31, his record against younger players started with a loss. Sinner has more top-level match experience than any other man his age, but like many prospects who have emerged in the Covid era, he has barely played on grass. It\u2019s Draper\u2019s 6th career grass-court event to Sinner\u2019s 4th, and young Brits have easier access to grass courts during the three weeks of the year it isn\u2019t raining. In his young career, the Italian has already won tour-level events on indoor and outdoor hard courts, as well a Challenger on clay. A first grass court title may have to wait.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Ilya Ivashka posts another career-best performance in a losing effort, Barbora Krejcikova has risen the ranks with unusually good clutch play, and Jannik Sinner suffered a dose of his own medicine. Scroll down &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/06\/15\/expected-points-june-15-the-man-who-almost-beat-both-federer-and-nadal\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, June 15: The Man Who Almost Beat Both Federer and Nadal<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4508","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4508"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4508\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}