{"id":4516,"date":"2021-06-21T10:55:21","date_gmt":"2021-06-21T10:55:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4516"},"modified":"2021-06-21T10:55:21","modified_gmt":"2021-06-21T10:55:21","slug":"expected-points-june-21-liudmila-samsonova-serves-her-way-to-wimbledon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/06\/21\/expected-points-june-21-liudmila-samsonova-serves-her-way-to-wimbledon\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, June 21: Liudmila Samsonova Serves Her Way To Wimbledon"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Samsonova puts on a week-long service clinic, Ugo Humbert wins all the break points, and the newly-enlarged WTA winner\u2019s circle isn\u2019t likely to keep growing anytime soon.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/486122\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today\u2019s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 81%, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=LudmillaSamsonova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ludmilla Samsonova<\/a>\u2019s first-serve winning percentage in five main draw matches in Berlin this week. Samsonova is a 22-year-old from Russia who had never broken the top-100 or won a single tour-level grass-court match. After qualifying and sweeping through the Berlin field to her first WTA title, Samsonova is #63 in the official rankings and earned the last wild card into the Wimbledon main draw. The Russian upstart didn\u2019t exactly dominate from start to finish, squeaking through a quarter-final against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MadisonKeys\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Madison Keys<\/a> in which she won only 48% of total points. But her first-serve performance is truly impressive. For reference, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SerenaWilliams\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Serena Williams<\/a>\u2019s career first-serve winning percentage on grass is 77%, a mark that Samsonova eclipsed in three of her five main draw matches. Against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=VeronikaKudermetova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Veronika Kudermetova<\/a> in round two, she was particularly ruthless, losing only three serve points in the second set. The staggeringly deep women\u2019s field at Wimbledon just gained another player capable of an unseeded run to the second week.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 32, the number of ATP tour-level matches this year in which one player won every break point, on both serve and return. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=UgoHumbert\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ugo Humbert<\/a> did exactly that yesterday in winning the Halle final, saving both of break chances against him, and converting the single break point he earned on the otherwise outstanding serve of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AndreyRublev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Andrey Rublev<\/a>. It\u2019s not the rarest of statistical feats, but it illustrates how Humbert delivered his best when it mattered. He\u2019s no stranger to dominating service performances, once winning all of his first-serve points for an entire match. But on return, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JohnIsner\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">John Isner<\/a> is the only man in the top 50 to convert break points at a lower rate. Perhaps it\u2019s best that Humbert only needed one to secure his first grass-court title and a new career-high ranking of 25th. Big serving and tight margins define grass-court success, and sure enough, he reached the fourth round of Wimbledon in his 2019 debut. The wiped-out 2020 season makes it easy to forget which young players showed promise on the surface, but Humbert\u2019s performance in Halle this week offers an emphatic reminder.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s third and final number is 39, the WTA ranking of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NadiaPodoroska\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nadia Podoroska<\/a>. Podoroska is now the highest-ranked woman without a tour-level title to her name, after <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=OnsJabeur\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ons Jabeur<\/a> won her first WTA tournament in Birmingham. For Jabeur, it\u2019s a long-awaited, much-deserved accomplishment. For Podoroska, it\u2019s a spotlight that she\u2019s unlikely to shake anytime soon. The Argentine\u2019s top-40 ranking relies almost entirely on her shock run to last year\u2019s French Open semi-finals, and she\u2019s never come any closer to a top-level title. Despite an opening round win yesterday against an unranked wild card in Bad Homburg, she\u2019s unlikely to do better on a surface other than clay. According to the Tennis Abstract Elo rankings, Podoroska is far from the best player without a title to her name, regardless of what the WTA computer says. The relevant Elo honor belongs to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AnnLi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ann Li<\/a>, a 20-year-old American ranked 37th by the more sophisticated formula. But Li has a probable second-round date with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=PetraKvitova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Petra Kvitova<\/a> in Bad Homburg. Now that Jabeur and Ludmilla Samsonova have earned a spot in the WTA winner\u2019s circle, we\u2019ll probably have to wait a few more weeks before seeing another first-time titlist<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Samsonova puts on a week-long service clinic, Ugo Humbert wins all the break points, and the newly-enlarged WTA winner\u2019s circle isn\u2019t likely to keep growing anytime soon. Scroll down for a transcript. You &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/06\/21\/expected-points-june-21-liudmila-samsonova-serves-her-way-to-wimbledon\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, June 21: Liudmila Samsonova Serves Her Way To Wimbledon<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4516"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4516\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}