{"id":4533,"date":"2021-07-01T08:42:45","date_gmt":"2021-07-01T08:42:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4533"},"modified":"2021-07-01T08:42:45","modified_gmt":"2021-07-01T08:42:45","slug":"expected-points-july-1-madison-brengle-is-happy-to-wait","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/07\/01\/expected-points-july-1-madison-brengle-is-happy-to-wait\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, July 1: Madison Brengle Is Happy To Wait"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Everything is going Karolina Pliskova\u2019s way, Denis Kudla pushes his grass-court experience to the max, and Brengle finds a pair of opponents willing to beat themselves.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/519560\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today\u2019s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 13, the WTA ranking of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=KarolinaPliskova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Karolina Pliskova<\/a>. Pliskova is the 8th seed at Wimbledon, but for the first time since 2016, she enters a tournament with a ranking outside the top 10. But based on her early results at the All England Club, she may regain a single-digit ranking quickly. After a first-round win over French Open semi-finalist <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=TamaraZidansek\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tamara Zidansek<\/a>, Pliskova whipped past <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DonnaVekic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Donna Vekic<\/a>, 6-2 6-2 in 68 minutes. The best news for the Czech was what happened in the other matches in her section. The draw lined her up for a potential fourth-round match with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JessicaPegula\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jessica Pegula<\/a>, the American who has beaten her four times this season, three of them handily. But Berlin champion Liudmila Samsonova earned herself a place on Pliskova\u2019s Christmas card list by ousting Pegula. The coast is hardly clear, with Samsonova and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SloaneStephens\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sloane Stephens<\/a> in her section, but should Pliskova keep winning, she won\u2019t face a seed until the quarter-finals, and she\u2019ll be the higher-ranked player until at least the semi-finals. With a stature and a serve built for grass, Pliskova can\u2019t afford to miss this opportunity to turn things around.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 71, Denis Kudla\u2019s career win total on grass. For a player who has spent much of his career on the fringes of the top 100, amassing so much experience on turf indicates quite a commitment. Kudla is a 28-year-old American, and he has played 11 grass-court challengers and entered another 15 tour-level qualifying draws since his first appearance as a 17-year-old at Den Bosch in 2010. He advanced through Wimbledon qualifying last week at Roehampton and has kept the momentum going. He kicked off his main-draw campaign with a five-set upset of 30th-seed <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AlejandroDavidovichFokina\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alejandro Davidovich Fokina<\/a>, and took it relatively easy yesterday with a straight-set, 91-minute defeat of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AndreasSeppi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Andreas Seppi<\/a>. It\u2019s not his best showing at Wimbledon, having reached the fourth round in 2015, and unfortunately, it\u2019s likely to stop tomorrow. His reward for the Seppi win is a third-round date with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NovakDjokovic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Novak Djokovic<\/a>, the same man who stopped him in the second round at Wimbledon in 2019. Since dropping the first set of the tournament on Monday to British wild card <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JackDraper\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jack Draper<\/a>, Djokovic has cruised. Alas, no amount of experience would get Kudla over this next hump.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s third and final number is 117, the number of unforced errors committed by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MadisonBrengle\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Madison Brengle<\/a>\u2019s two opponents at Wimbledon this week. Brengle is possibly the most passive player in all of women\u2019s tennis. The Aggression Score metric, devised by Lowell West, calculates what fraction of a player\u2019s shots end the point, for good or bad. 0 is average, and the most extreme players are around positive and negative 100. In 16 matches logged by the Match Charting Project, Brengle\u2019s Aggression Score is negative 141. She battled past <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ChristinaMchale\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Christina McHale<\/a> in the first round, hitting 13 winners and 26 unforced to McHale\u2019s 57 and 71. Yesterday she overcame <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SofiaKenin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sofia Kenin<\/a> in straights, hitting only 6 winners and 7 unforced errors, while Kenin hit 20 and 41. Brengle\u2019s career-best ranking is 35th, and she has spent more time in the vicinity of her current position in the 80s. But when an opponent is having a bad day, she\u2019s wait\u2026 and wait\u2026 and wait for her to hand over the match. While Brengle will be the underdog in every match she plays, there\u2019s no shortage of players on tour with the ability to beat themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Everything is going Karolina Pliskova\u2019s way, Denis Kudla pushes his grass-court experience to the max, and Brengle finds a pair of opponents willing to beat themselves. Scroll down for a transcript. You can &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/07\/01\/expected-points-july-1-madison-brengle-is-happy-to-wait\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, July 1: Madison Brengle Is Happy To Wait<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4533","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4533"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4533\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4533"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4533"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4533"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}