{"id":4537,"date":"2021-07-05T08:27:44","date_gmt":"2021-07-05T08:27:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4537"},"modified":"2021-07-05T08:27:44","modified_gmt":"2021-07-05T08:27:44","slug":"expected-points-july-5-alexander-zverevs-favorite-matchup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/07\/05\/expected-points-july-5-alexander-zverevs-favorite-matchup\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, July 5: Alexander Zverev\u2019s Favorite Matchup"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Hubert Hurkacz has been unbreakable, Madison Keys is poised for a grass-court breakthrough, and Zverev couldn\u2019t ask for a better fourth-round draw.\t\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/545697\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today\u2019s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 42, the number of service games that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=HubertHurkacz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hubert Hurkacz<\/a> has held through the first three rounds at Wimbledon without giving up a single break, according to Chris Oddo on Twitter. He\u2019s faced only four break points and made plenty of inroads in his own return games. Against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=LorenzoMusetti\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Lorenzo Musetti<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MarcosGiron\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Marcos Giron<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AlexanderBublik\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alexander Bublik<\/a>, he\u2019s won nine of nine sets and been pushed to only a single tiebreak. Thanks to a ranking boost after his title in Miami, Hurkacz is seeded 14th, suggesting he belongs in the fourth round. Yet it\u2019s his first time in the second week of a major, and he remains one of the longest shots to win this title. The Tennis Abstract forecast gives him only a 14% chance of upsetting <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DaniilMedvedev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Daniil Medvedev<\/a> today and one-in-one-thousand odds of winning his first slam. That\u2019s reasonable enough for a player who entered the fortnight with a 4-6 career record on grass. But no one else in the bottom half of the draw got through the first week so convincingly. Bookies put long odds on Hurkacz back in Miami, as well.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 1, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MadisonKeys\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Madison Keys<\/a>\u2019s number of first-round losses at WTA events on grass. Since Keys\u2019s first appearance at Wimbledon as a 17-year-old nine years ago, the American has played 16 grass-court tournaments. The only woman to knock her out of an opening-round match was in Eastbourne in 2015, when <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=BelindaBencic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Belinda Bencic<\/a> straight-setted her and went on to win the tournament. Keys has had her share of missed opportunities on turf, losing to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=CamilaGiorgi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Camila Giorgi<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=EvgeniyaRodina\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Evgeniya Rodina<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=PolonaHercog\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Polona Hercog<\/a> in her last three appearances at the All England Club. But thanks to a pair of titles and the dearth of early exits, she has won nearly three-quarters of her career matches on grass. That fast-court prowess makes Keys the favorite today to reach her first-ever Wimbledon quarter-final, as she takes on one of the tournament\u2019s many fourth-round surprises, 66th-ranked <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ViktorijaGolubic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Viktorija Golubic<\/a>. The American is coming off a straight-set win over <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=EliseMertens\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Elise Mertens<\/a>, making three of four slams where she has beaten the Belgian. She won her only previous meeting against Golubic as well, so the stars are aligned for Keys to finally reach her grass-court potential.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s third and final number is 60.3%, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AlexanderZverev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alexander Zverev<\/a>\u2019s rate of total points won in three career matches against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=FelixAugerAliassime\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Felix Auger Aliassime<\/a>. Zverev continues to benefit from the ATP\u2019s lack of any domestic violence policy, as he ignores lingering accusations and maintains a full schedule on tour. In his career, he has played at least three matches against 63 different opponents, and his record against Auger Aliassime is his best. He\u2019s won 71% of serve points against the Canadian and more than half on return, a remarkable success rate against a strong server when two of the matches have come on hard courts. So while it\u2019s good news for Auger Aliassime that he\u2019s reached his first Wimbledon fourth round, the bad news is that his opponent today is Zverev. The Elo-based Tennis Abstract forecast ignores the head-to-head and gives Auger Aliassime ample credit for his six wins in eight matches on grass in warm-up events last month, including a victory over <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RogerFederer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Roger Federer<\/a>. That leaves Zverev as a modest 53% favorite. The German will surely show up today with more confidence than that, and for good reason.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Hubert Hurkacz has been unbreakable, Madison Keys is poised for a grass-court breakthrough, and Zverev couldn\u2019t ask for a better fourth-round draw. Scroll down for a transcript. You can subscribe on iTunes, Spotify, &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/07\/05\/expected-points-july-5-alexander-zverevs-favorite-matchup\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, July 5: Alexander Zverev\u2019s Favorite Matchup<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4537","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4537","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4537"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4537\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}