{"id":4544,"date":"2021-07-07T08:29:31","date_gmt":"2021-07-07T08:29:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4544"},"modified":"2021-07-07T08:29:31","modified_gmt":"2021-07-07T08:29:31","slug":"expected-points-july-7-novak-djokovic-usually-beats-these-guys","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/07\/07\/expected-points-july-7-novak-djokovic-usually-beats-these-guys\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, July 7: Novak Djokovic Usually Beats These Guys"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Djokovic holds an encouraging record against the rest of the quarter-final field, Ashleigh Barty has gotten here without many top-ten wins, and a Swedish doubles specialist excels in his first grand slam.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/555006\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today\u2019s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 94%, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NovakDjokovic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Novak Djokovic<\/a>\u2019s career winning percentage against the men remaining in the Wimbledon draw, if we exclude <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RogerFederer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Roger Federer<\/a>. Djokovic sports a 27-23 record against Fed, and you probably already knew that. Novak\u2019s history against the other six men in the draw rarely shows up in broadcast graphics. He\u2019s won both previous meetings against today\u2019s quarter-final opponent, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MartonFucsovics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Marton Fucsovics<\/a>, though he did drop a set at the 2018 US Open. All told, he\u2019s 16-1 against the remaining non-Federer field, with a single loss to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=KarenKhachanov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Karen Khachanov<\/a> in the 2018 Paris Masters final. Since then, Djokovic has beaten the Russian three times running without the loss of a set. He\u2019s 2-0 against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MatteoBerrettini\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Matteo Berrettini<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=HubertHurkacz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hubert Hurkacz<\/a>, 6-0 against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DenisShapovalov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Denis Shapovalov<\/a>, and has yet to face <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=FelixAugerAliassime\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Felix Auger Aliassime<\/a>. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but in this case, head-to-head results seem like an awfully good predictor of the rest of the week for Novak Djokovic.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 1, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AshleighBarty\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ashleigh Barty<\/a>\u2019s career win total against top-ten players at grand slams. At the 2019 Roland Garros, the site of her one major title, the highest-ranked opponent she faced was #14 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MadisonKeys\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Madison Keys<\/a> in the quarter-finals. At Wimbledon this year, she\u2019s played no one ranked higher than <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=BarboraKrejcikova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Barbora Krejcikova<\/a>\u2019s #17, and she drew 75th-ranked <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AjlaTomljanovic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ajla Tomljanovic<\/a> in the quarters. In 75 matches over the course of a decade, Barty has faced only six top-ten players at slams, with a single victory over <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=PetraKvitova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Petra Kvitova<\/a> at last year\u2019s Australian Open. The world number one\u2019s path through the second tier of the rankings won\u2019t change tomorrow, as she faces #28 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AngeliqueKerber\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Angelique Kerber<\/a> in the semi-finals. But rather than reflecting a run of good luck, the Kerber matchup reflects the increasing meaninglessness of rankings, with dozens of players in the field able to make deep runs at the biggest events. The German is at her best on grass, and she might be the most dangerous opponent for Barty out of the 128-woman field, regardless of her ranking.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s third and final number is $121,777, the career prize money earned by Swedish doubles specialist <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AndreGoransson\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Andre Goransson<\/a>. If this is the first you\u2019re hearing of Goransson, I don\u2019t blame you. The 27-year-old has never held a top-700 ranking in singles, and he only cracked the doubles top 100 in February of last year. He\u2019s partnering fellow Scandinavian <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=CasperRuud\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Casper Ruud<\/a> at Wimbledon this week in his first grand slam appearance. The Nordic duo have reached the quarter-finals in their second outing together, slipping past the Spanish pair of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=FelicianoLopez\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Feliciano Lopez<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MarcLopez\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Marc Lopez<\/a> in the first round with an 11-9 final set. The doubles prize purse at Wimbledon is a pittance compared to singles, but it blows away the checks Goransson is accustomed to at Challenger level. Goransson is set to earn 30,000 pounds, or about $41,000, if he and Ruud lose today. Even in that worst-case scenario, his Wimbledon earnings will represent a quarter of the money he\u2019s made in ten years on the circuit. But why stop there? Two more wins and he\u2019ll exceed his career haul in one go. On the ATP doubles tour, overnight successes are often a decade in the making.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Djokovic holds an encouraging record against the rest of the quarter-final field, Ashleigh Barty has gotten here without many top-ten wins, and a Swedish doubles specialist excels in his first grand slam. Scroll &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/07\/07\/expected-points-july-7-novak-djokovic-usually-beats-these-guys\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, July 7: Novak Djokovic Usually Beats These Guys<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4544","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4544","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4544"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4544\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4544"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4544"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4544"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}