{"id":4546,"date":"2021-07-08T08:30:25","date_gmt":"2021-07-08T08:30:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4546"},"modified":"2021-07-08T08:30:25","modified_gmt":"2021-07-08T08:30:25","slug":"expected-points-july-8-aryna-sabalenka-lights-up-the-radar-gun","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/07\/08\/expected-points-july-8-aryna-sabalenka-lights-up-the-radar-gun\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, July 8: Aryna Sabalenka Lights Up the Radar Gun"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Sabalenka serves faster than many men, Denis Shapovalov steps up his return game, and Jule Niemeier is the hottest player you\u2019re not watching this week.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/556298\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today\u2019s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 37, the number of men in the singles main draw at Wimbledon whose average second serve was slower than <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ArynaSabalenka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Aryna Sabalenka<\/a>\u2019s. In her first five matches, Sabalenka\u2019s average second serve has clocked in at 153 kilometers per hour, or 95 miles per hour. Neither <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NovakDjokovic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Novak Djokovic<\/a> nor <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=HubertHurkacz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hubert Hurkacz<\/a>\u2014among many others\u2014hit their second serves as fast. Remarkably, the Belarussian doesn\u2019t even rank first among women&#8211;both <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=CamilaGiorgi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Camila Giorgi<\/a> and Liudmila Samsonova averaged a bit faster. Even in the first serve department, Sabalenka out-hits many of the men. Her average delivery registers at 177 kilometers per hour, or 110 miles per hour, second on the women\u2019s list behind <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ElenaRybakina\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Elena Rybakina<\/a>. That\u2019s only two miles per hour behind <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RogerFederer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Roger Federer<\/a>\u2019s typical first serve, and faster than Cam Norrie\u2019s average. Velocity isn\u2019t everything, but it has gotten Sabalenka to the final four, and of the men\u2019s and women\u2019s semi-finals, it\u2019s today\u2019s clash between Sabalenka and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=KarolinaPliskova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Karolina Pliskova<\/a> that is most likely to have fans oohing and aahing at the radar gun.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 41%, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DenisShapovalov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Denis Shapovalov<\/a>\u2019s rate of return points won through five rounds at Wimbledon. The 10th-seeded Shapovalov is into his first grand slam semi-final, where he\u2019ll face Novak Djokovic tomorrow. The flashy Canadian has gotten so far by performing well in what has long been the weakest part of his game. In his career at tour level, Shapovalov has won 35% of return points, an adequate fraction for a big server who is content with a top-20 ranking. In limited action on grass, he\u2019s managed a meager 32.5% off his opponents\u2019 serves. Except for a 33% mark against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=PhilippKohlschreiber\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Philipp Kohlschreiber<\/a> in the first round, the left-hander has been far better at Wimbledon. He won nearly half of return points against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AndyMurray\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Andy Murray<\/a>, and then exceeded the 50% mark against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RobertoBautistaAgut\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Roberto Bautista Agut<\/a>. Facing big-serving <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=KarenKhachanov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Karen Khachanov<\/a> yesterday, he won 40% of return points and broke the Russian five times. In six previous meetings with Djokovic, he\u2019s won only 26% on return. To dethrone the world number one, he\u2019ll need to display every bit of the defensive improvement that got him to the final four.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s third and final number is 23, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JuleNiemeier\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jule Niemeier<\/a>\u2019s win total in the last three months, against only six losses. Niemeier is a 21-year-old German who was ranked just outside the top 300 when the tour restarted last summer, and she\u2019s suddenly playing like she belongs among tour regulars. After qualifying and winning an ITF $25K in Prague in May, she qualified and reached the semi-final at the WTA event in Strasbourg. She narrowly lost to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=BarboraKrejcikova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Barbora Krejcikova<\/a> there, and in Krejcikova\u2019s 12-match winning streak at Strasbourg and Roland Garros, Niemeier was the opponent who came closest to beating her. Since then, she qualified at the grass-court event in Berlin, taking a set from eventual finalist <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=BelindaBencic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Belinda Bencic<\/a>, and reached the final round of Wimbledon qualifying, where it took a 9-7 deciding set to send her home. She\u2019s back on clay this week in Hamburg, where she upset <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=CarolineGarcia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Caroline Garcia<\/a> yesterday. Compared to the big names she\u2019s challenged lately, today\u2019s assignment against fellow wild card <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=TamaraKorpatsch\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tamara Korpatsch<\/a> sounds like a walk in the park. German fans following <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AngeliqueKerber\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Angelique Kerber<\/a>\u2019s exploits at Wimbledon should keep one eye on the rising star at their lower-profile home tournament this week.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Sabalenka serves faster than many men, Denis Shapovalov steps up his return game, and Jule Niemeier is the hottest player you\u2019re not watching this week. Scroll down for a transcript. You can subscribe &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/07\/08\/expected-points-july-8-aryna-sabalenka-lights-up-the-radar-gun\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, July 8: Aryna Sabalenka Lights Up the Radar Gun<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4546","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4546","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4546"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4546\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4546"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4546"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4546"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}