{"id":459,"date":"2011-08-15T09:45:25","date_gmt":"2011-08-15T13:45:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=459"},"modified":"2011-08-15T09:45:25","modified_gmt":"2011-08-15T13:45:25","slug":"atp-cincinnati-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/08\/15\/atp-cincinnati-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"ATP Cincinnati Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>If last week&#8217;s tournament in Montreal taught us anything, it&#8217;s that predicting the outcome of ATP matches is a fool&#8217;s errand. \u00a0With that in mind, let&#8217;s see what the draw has in store for us in Cinci!<\/p>\n<p>The draw this week is what the Master&#8217;s series is all about. \u00a0With the exception of a couple of late withdrawals (Tsonga?) that may yet come down the pike, nearly every top player in the men&#8217;s game is in Cincinnati. \u00a0Andy Roddick is trying to return from injury; David Ferrer makes his summer hard-court debut, and we&#8217;re already set for a Federer\/del Potro showdown in the second round.<\/p>\n<p>Del Potro&#8217;s mere presence makes every tournament a little more interesting. \u00a0He&#8217;s laid a couple of eggs recently, losing to Gulbis and Cilic, but he tore up the spring hard court circuit and lost only to the best of the best on clay. \u00a0My ranking system still gives him a lot of respect, keeping him within the top five, which makes Federer&#8217;s route to the semifinals (heck, the third round!) look particularly challenging.<\/p>\n<p>Djokovic (who, once again, is in Fed&#8217;s half) could face a slew of Americans on their home turf. \u00a0His probable second-round opponent is Ryan Harrison, who I favor heavily over Juan Ignacio Chela. \u00a0After that, it&#8217;s easy to see John Isner in the third round, and possibly Andy Roddick in the quarters. \u00a0It&#8217;s theoretically possible, but a <em>little<\/em> less likely that another American, James Blake, will make it through the semis to be Novak&#8217;s opponent in that round.<\/p>\n<p>Here is my full projection. \u00a0For purity&#8217;s sake, it doesn&#8217;t reflect the results of today&#8217;s two matches, in which Delpo and Blake both advanced.<\/p>\n<pre>Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  \n(1)Novak Djokovic          100.0%  90.1%  74.4%    29.61%  \n(WC)Ryan Harrison           71.5%   8.6%   3.2%     0.07%  \nJuan Ignacio Chela          28.5%   1.3%   0.3%     0.00%  \n(q)Radek Stepanek           43.6%  18.2%   3.0%     0.09%  \nJohn Isner                  56.4%  24.7%   5.0%     0.24%  \nAndrey Golubev              23.2%   8.4%   1.0%     0.02%  \n(16)Stanislas Wawrinka      76.8%  48.7%  13.0%     1.41%  \n\nPlayer                        R32    R16     QF         W  \n(11)Andy Roddick            63.7%  43.3%  23.0%     1.34%  \nPhilipp Kohlschreiber       36.3%  20.8%   9.1%     0.24%  \nJuan Carlos Ferrero         23.9%   4.3%   0.9%     0.00%  \nFeliciano Lopez             76.1%  31.6%  13.3%     0.29%  \nIvan Dodig                  39.4%  10.9%   3.9%     0.05%  \n(q)Ernests Gulbis           60.6%  24.3%  11.6%     0.32%  \n(6)Gael Monfils            100.0%  64.9%  38.2%     2.22%  \n\nPlayer                        R32    R16     QF         W  \n(3)Roger Federer           100.0%  58.9%  44.5%    10.38%  \nJuan Martin del Potro       82.9%  38.8%  27.9%     5.00%  \nAndreas Seppi               17.1%   2.4%   0.8%     0.01%  \n(WC)James Blake             23.3%   8.1%   1.1%     0.01%  \nMarcos Baghdatis            76.7%  46.2%  15.2%     1.02%  \nFabio Fognini               26.1%   7.6%   0.9%     0.01%  \n(14)Viktor Troicki          73.9%  38.1%   9.6%     0.40%  \n\nPlayer                        R32    R16     QF         W  \n(9)Nicolas Almagro          62.0%  32.1%  14.0%     0.25%  \nAlbert Montanes             38.0%  13.8%   4.0%     0.03%  \nIvo Karlovic                32.6%  14.0%   4.6%     0.04%  \nFlorian Mayer               67.4%  40.2%  18.2%     0.56%  \nTommy Haas                  13.2%   0.8%   0.1%     0.00%  \nJuan Monaco                 86.8%  28.8%  13.9%     0.21%  \n(8)Tomas Berdych           100.0%  70.4%  45.3%     2.43%  \n\nPlayer                        R32    R16     QF         W  \n(5)David Ferrer            100.0%  75.5%  44.7%     2.52%  \n(q)Marsel Ilhan             38.3%   7.5%   1.9%     0.00%  \n(WC)Grigor Dimitrov         61.7%  17.0%   6.0%     0.05%  \nJanko Tipsarevic            70.3%  31.7%  15.3%     0.43%  \n(q)Edouard Roger-Vasselin   29.7%   8.2%   2.2%     0.01%  \nJurgen Melzer               44.2%  25.0%  12.0%     0.35%  \n(10)Gilles Simon            55.8%  35.2%  17.9%     0.72%  \n\nPlayer                        R32    R16     QF         W  \n(15)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      57.2%  46.4%  19.8%     2.28%  \nMarin Cilic                 42.8%  32.7%  12.2%     0.85%  \n(q)Alex Bogomolov Jr        57.7%  13.7%   3.0%     0.04%  \n(WC)Robby Ginepri           42.3%   7.2%   1.1%     0.01%  \n(q)Kei Nishikori            46.5%  10.6%   4.5%     0.14%  \nDavid Nalbandian            53.5%  13.1%   5.9%     0.27%  \n(4)Andy Murray             100.0%  76.3%  53.6%    10.62%  \n\nPlayer                        R32    R16     QF         W  \n(7)Mardy Fish              100.0%  63.6%  42.6%     3.59%  \nNikolay Davydenko           68.5%  28.8%  16.7%     0.99%  \nSergiy Stakhovsky           31.5%   7.6%   3.0%     0.04%  \nXavier Malisse              55.4%  21.5%   6.7%     0.11%  \nKevin Anderson              44.6%  15.4%   4.5%     0.04%  \nAlexandr Dolgopolov         47.8%  29.6%  12.4%     0.39%  \n(12)Richard Gasquet         52.2%  33.4%  14.0%     0.52%  \n\nPlayer                        R32    R16     QF         W  \n(13)Mikhail Youzhny         54.6%  28.3%   7.7%     0.41%  \nMichael Llodra              45.4%  20.5%   4.9%     0.17%  \nThomaz Bellucci             36.9%  15.1%   3.1%     0.05%  \nFernando Verdasco           63.1%  36.0%  10.4%     0.61%  \nGuillermo Garcia-Lopez      60.5%  13.3%   6.3%     0.19%  \n(q)Julien Benneteau         39.5%   4.9%   1.8%     0.03%  \n(2)Rafael Nadal            100.0%  81.8%  65.8%    18.36%<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If last week&#8217;s tournament in Montreal taught us anything, it&#8217;s that predicting the outcome of ATP matches is a fool&#8217;s errand. \u00a0With that in mind, let&#8217;s see what the draw has in store for us in Cinci! The draw this week is what the Master&#8217;s series is all about. \u00a0With the exception of a couple &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/08\/15\/atp-cincinnati-predictions\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">ATP Cincinnati Predictions<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cincinnati","category-forecasting"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/459","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=459"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/459\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=459"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=459"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=459"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}