{"id":512,"date":"2011-08-27T17:50:11","date_gmt":"2011-08-27T21:50:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=512"},"modified":"2011-08-27T17:50:11","modified_gmt":"2011-08-27T21:50:11","slug":"us-open-womens-draw-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/08\/27\/us-open-womens-draw-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"US Open Women’s Draw Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Serena Williams dominates my most recent WTA hard court rankings<\/a>, so it’s no surprise that she’s favored to win the U.S. Open<\/a>. \u00a0As was the case before Wimbledon<\/a>, it’s remarkable to see how chaotic the women’s field is. \u00a0While Novak Djokovic has a 28% chance of winning the men’s event, Serena is the only woman in double digits, at 14.2%.<\/p>\n

Because of Serena’s low seeding at #28, a decisive match may take place in the first week. \u00a0Assuming some easy wins for both Williams and Victoria Azarenka, the two ladies will face off in the third round. \u00a0My algorithm gives the American a 59% chance of winning that match, meaning it could be the toughest test she faces in the entire tournament.<\/p>\n

Behind Serena, Carolina Wozniacki has a 9.8% chance of winning the U.S. Open, followed by Maria Sharapova at 9.2%. \u00a0Next up are Petra Kvitova at 8.0% and Vera Zvonareva at 7.9%. \u00a0An amazing 21 women (compared to 13 men) have at least a 1% chance of going home a champion. \u00a0These include the unseeded Venus Williams (1.8%) and the 32nd seeded Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez (1.0%, or 0.25% per name).<\/p>\n

The conspiracy-minded among you might note that top seeds Wozniacki and Zvonareva have the most favorable first-round odds, despite my system ranking them only 3rd and 7th on hard courts. \u00a0Their opening opponents,\u00a0Nuria Llagostera Vives and\u00a0Stephanie Foretz Gacon, are the 16th and 23rd weakest players in the draw, according to the current WTA rankings. \u00a0(My system isn’t as reliable that far down the WTA list.) \u00a0Caro and Vera are the only two players with a better-than-90% chance of winning their openers, though both Sharapova, Marion Bartoli, and Andrea Petkovic are at an even 90%.<\/p>\n

Here are a few interesting first-rounders. \u00a0In each of these, my system gives neither player a better than 55% chance of advancing, with the favorite in bold<\/strong>:<\/p>\n