{"id":632,"date":"2012-01-14T21:11:14","date_gmt":"2012-01-15T02:11:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=632"},"modified":"2012-01-14T21:11:14","modified_gmt":"2012-01-15T02:11:14","slug":"australian-open-mens-draw-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2012\/01\/14\/australian-open-mens-draw-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian Open Men&#8217;s Draw Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A lot has changed in the last few months of men&#8217;s tennis, yet as far as one computer is concerned, all the important things have remained the same.<\/p>\n<p>Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal limped to the finish line of the 2011 season, while Andy Murray didn&#8217;t even get through the round robin in London. \u00a0All the while, Roger Federer re-asserted his dominance, winning the last three events of the year. \u00a0For all that, my rankings can&#8217;t ignore Djokovic&#8217;s dominance over the last year, nor Nadal&#8217;s before that.<\/p>\n<p>My simulation of the Australian Open draw gives a heavy edge to Novak Djokovic, with a 25.8% chance of winning it all. \u00a0Nadal is next at 15.1%, followed by Federer at 12.7% and Murray at 9.3%. \u00a0Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, at 5.3%, is the only other man with better than a one in twenty chance of winning the slam.<\/p>\n<p>Djokovic also has the most lopsided first-round match. \u00a0Paolo Lorenzi just barely snuck into the main draw, and he&#8217;ll likely be on a flight home in a couple of days. \u00a0Almost as likely to make first-round exits are Aussie wildcards Benjamin Mitchell and James Duckworth, who play John Isner and Jurgen Zopp, respectively. \u00a0Yes, Duckworth&#8217;s resume is so sparse that my system gives him less than a one-in-ten chance of beating the Estonian qualifier. \u00a0I wouldn&#8217;t recommend running to your bookie with that one&#8211;it says more about Duckworth&#8217;s lack of high-level match play than it does about Zopp&#8217;s potential for dominance.<\/p>\n<p>As always, the first round promises to full of tight contests, even while the seeds coast through.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>My system gives Cedrik-Marcel Stebe a 70% chance of beating Lleyton Hewitt; that&#8217;s a reflection of how the Aussie&#8217;s health has hindered him for so long.<\/li>\n<li>Speaking of Aussies, Bernard Tomic is set to upset 27th seed Fernando Verdasco. \u00a0My numbers put the youngster at 52.5%.<\/li>\n<li>Ivo Karlovic is always a threat, and my system gives him a 49% chance of beating Jurgen Melzer.<\/li>\n<li>Juan Ignacio Chela keeps earning seeds, but I keep betting against him. \u00a0This time, my system gives Michael Russell a 55% chance of scoring a first-round upset over the clay-court specialist.<\/li>\n<li>The opening match between Michael Llodra and Ernests Gulbis is more likely to be lost than won. \u00a0I predict Llodra will lose it.<\/li>\n<li>Thomaz Bellucci and Dudi Sela are as close as they come. \u00a0My system gives the Israeli a tiny edge of 50.4% to 49.6%.<\/li>\n<li>Even closer are Alejandro Falla and Fabio Fognini, at 49.9%\/50.1%. \u00a0Falla is dangerous, and Fognini is a threat to himself.<\/li>\n<li>Philipp Kohlschreiber is always a dark horse, and my system suggests he&#8217;s nearly even (46.9%) with first-round opponent Juan Monaco.<\/li>\n<li>British qualifier James Ward lucked into a friendly draw against Blaz Kavcic. \u00a0 I give the Brit a 48.4% chance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The results of my full draw simulation are below.<\/p>\n<p>(If you&#8217;re interested in my ranking system, <a href=\"http:\/\/tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/03\/11\/indian-wells-projections\/\">click here<\/a>. \u00a0Once I have rankings, I use the draw to &#8220;play&#8221; the tournament 1,000,000 times.)<\/p>\n<pre>Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  \n(1)Novak Djokovic          96.0%  85.6%  77.8%    25.8%  \nPaolo Lorenzi               4.1%   1.1%   0.4%     0.0%  \nSantiago Giraldo           80.3%  12.2%   7.4%     0.1%  \n(q)Matteo Viola            19.7%   1.0%   0.3%     0.0%  \n(WC)Tatsuma Ito            63.7%  25.8%   3.1%     0.0%  \nPotito Starace             36.3%  10.4%   0.8%     0.0%  \nNicolas Mahut              39.3%  22.8%   3.0%     0.0%  \n(29)Radek Stepanek         60.7%  41.1%   7.4%     0.1%  \n\nPlayer                       R64    R32    R16        W  \n(23)Milos Raonic           90.5%  60.8%  35.8%     0.9%  \nFilippo Volandri            9.5%   1.7%   0.3%     0.0%  \nLukas Rosol                39.3%  12.5%   4.4%     0.0%  \nPhilipp Petzschner         60.7%  25.0%  11.3%     0.1%  \nCedrik-Marcel Stebe        70.3%  30.7%  13.9%     0.1%  \n(WC)Lleyton Hewitt         29.7%   7.4%   2.0%     0.0%  \nRobin Haase                35.6%  18.9%   8.0%     0.0%  \n(15)Andy Roddick           64.4%  43.0%  24.3%     0.6%  \n\nPlayer                       R64    R32    R16        W  \n(9)Janko Tipsarevic        68.8%  50.7%  30.5%     1.1%  \nDmitry Tursunov            31.2%  17.6%   7.3%     0.0%  \n(q)Jurgen Zopp             94.0%  31.4%  11.6%     0.0%  \n(WC)James Duckworth         6.0%   0.2%   0.0%     0.0%  \nMikhail Youzhny            64.6%  31.6%  16.4%     0.3%  \n(q)Andrey Golubev          35.4%  12.2%   4.5%     0.0%  \nAndreas Seppi              39.6%  19.6%   9.2%     0.1%  \n(17)Richard Gasquet        60.4%  36.6%  20.5%     0.5%  \n\nPlayer                       R64    R32    R16        W  \n(27)Juan Ignacio Chela     44.9%  20.6%   4.4%     0.0%  \nMichael Russell            55.1%  27.7%   6.7%     0.0%  \nIgor Kunitsyn              61.0%  34.0%   9.3%     0.0%  \nPablo Andujar              39.0%  17.6%   3.3%     0.0%  \nMatthias Bachinger         53.5%  16.6%  10.6%     0.0%  \nRyan Sweeting              46.5%  13.2%   8.0%     0.0%  \nRui Machado                10.2%   2.6%   1.0%     0.0%  \n(5)David Ferrer            89.8%  67.7%  56.8%     2.6%  \n\nPlayer                       R64    R32    R16        W  \n(4)Andy Murray             82.4%  71.1%  57.3%     9.2%  \nRyan Harrison              17.6%  10.1%   4.9%     0.0%  \nXavier Malisse             58.9%  12.4%   5.5%     0.0%  \nEdouard Roger-Vasselin     41.1%   6.5%   2.3%     0.0%  \nMichael Llodra             42.0%  24.4%   7.4%     0.1%  \nErnests Gulbis             58.0%  38.2%  13.8%     0.3%  \nDaniel Gimeno-Traver       41.4%  13.6%   2.8%     0.0%  \n(32)Alex Bogomolov Jr      58.6%  23.7%   6.1%     0.0%  \n\nPlayer                       R64    R32    R16        W  \n(19)Viktor Troicki         73.7%  43.4%  19.4%     0.3%  \nJuan Carlos Ferrero        26.3%   8.9%   2.2%     0.0%  \nGuillermo Garcia-Lopez     55.6%  27.8%  10.8%     0.1%  \nMikhail Kukushkin          44.4%  19.9%   6.8%     0.0%  \nThomaz Bellucci            49.6%  15.3%   6.9%     0.0%  \nDudi Sela                  50.4%  15.3%   6.8%     0.0%  \n(WC)Marinko Matosevic      16.9%   6.5%   2.2%     0.0%  \n(14)Gael Monfils           83.1%  62.9%  45.0%     2.6%  \n\nPlayer                       R64    R32    R16        W  \n(12)Gilles Simon           83.5%  57.3%  31.7%     1.0%  \n(q)Danai Udomchoke         16.5%   5.0%   1.1%     0.0%  \nJulien Benneteau           66.3%  28.0%  12.0%     0.1%  \nKarol Beck                 33.7%   9.7%   2.8%     0.0%  \nJoao Souza                 31.2%   5.6%   1.2%     0.0%  \nMatthew Ebden              68.8%  21.3%   7.8%     0.0%  \nStephane Robert            15.9%   6.8%   1.7%     0.0%  \n(24)Kei Nishikori          84.1%  66.3%  41.7%     1.9%  \n\nPlayer                       R64    R32    R16        W  \n(26)Marcel Granollers      75.3%  51.0%  23.6%     0.8%  \n(WC)Jesse Levine           24.7%  10.3%   2.6%     0.0%  \nFrederico Gil              23.7%   4.9%   0.8%     0.0%  \nIvan Dodig                 76.3%  33.8%  12.2%     0.1%  \n(q)Roberto Bautista-Agut   57.2%  11.1%   3.4%     0.0%  \nRicardo Mello              42.8%   6.7%   1.8%     0.0%  \nDenis Istomin              19.6%  12.3%   4.9%     0.0%  \n(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      80.4%  70.0%  50.6%     5.3%  \n\nPlayer                       R64    R32    R16        W  \n(8)Mardy Fish              77.6%  60.5%  42.1%     2.3%  \nGilles Muller              22.4%  11.1%   4.5%     0.0%  \nAlejandro Falla            49.9%  14.1%   5.6%     0.0%  \nFabio Fognini              50.1%  14.3%   5.9%     0.0%  \nAlbert Montanes            62.9%  19.0%   5.5%     0.0%  \nPere Riba                  37.1%   7.5%   1.5%     0.0%  \nPhilipp Kohlschreiber      46.9%  33.9%  15.5%     0.2%  \n(25)Juan Monaco            53.1%  39.6%  19.4%     0.3%  \n\nPlayer                       R64    R32    R16        W  \n(20)Florian Mayer          71.3%  51.0%  27.1%     0.9%  \nYen-Hsun Lu                28.7%  14.7%   4.9%     0.0%  \n(q)Florent Serra           31.9%   7.6%   1.7%     0.0%  \nSteve Darcis               68.1%  26.6%   9.8%     0.1%  \n(q)James Ward              48.4%  11.6%   4.0%     0.0%  \nBlaz Kavcic                51.6%  13.1%   4.8%     0.0%  \nAdrian Mannarino           27.2%  16.7%   7.6%     0.1%  \n(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  72.8%  58.7%  40.1%     2.6%  \n\nPlayer                       R64    R32    R16        W  \n(13)Alexandr Dolgopolov    75.2%  55.5%  29.3%     0.7%  \n(WC)Greg Jones             24.8%  12.3%   3.5%     0.0%  \nTobias Kamke               68.7%  25.4%   8.5%     0.0%  \nVictor Hanescu             31.3%   6.8%   1.3%     0.0%  \n(WC)Kenny De Schepper      18.2%   2.9%   0.7%     0.0%  \nSam Querrey                81.8%  37.5%  21.0%     0.4%  \nBernard Tomic              52.5%  31.9%  19.3%     0.5%  \n(22)Fernando Verdasco      47.5%  27.7%  16.3%     0.4%  \n\nPlayer                       R64    R32    R16        W  \n(31)Jurgen Melzer          51.0%  38.6%  10.8%     0.1%  \nIvo Karlovic               49.0%  36.5%  10.1%     0.1%  \nCarlos Berlocq             36.9%   6.9%   0.7%     0.0%  \n(q)Jesse Huta Galung       63.1%  18.0%   2.8%     0.0%  \nEric Prodon                19.8%   1.1%   0.2%     0.0%  \nAndreas Beck               80.2%  14.0%   6.4%     0.0%  \n(q)Alexander Kudryavtsev    9.6%   4.6%   1.7%     0.0%  \n(3)Roger Federer           90.4%  80.3%  67.4%    12.7%  \n\nPlayer                       R64    R32    R16        W  \n(7)Tomas Berdych           87.9%  72.2%  54.5%     4.3%  \nAlbert Ramos               12.1%   4.8%   1.4%     0.0%  \nOlivier Rochus             65.4%  17.1%   7.7%     0.0%  \n(q)Bjorn Phau              34.6%   5.8%   1.8%     0.0%  \nSergiy Stakhovsky          65.3%  34.3%  12.4%     0.1%  \n(q)Illya Marchenko         34.7%  13.0%   3.2%     0.0%  \n(q)Frederik Nielsen        27.4%   9.7%   2.1%     0.0%  \n(30)Kevin Anderson         72.6%  43.1%  17.0%     0.2%  \n\nPlayer                       R64    R32    R16        W  \n(21)Stanislas Wawrinka     76.0%  45.9%  31.1%     1.2%  \nBenoit Paire               24.0%   8.0%   3.2%     0.0%  \nMarcos Baghdatis           71.9%  37.4%  23.8%     0.7%  \nBenjamin Becker            28.1%   8.6%   3.4%     0.0%  \nJeremy Chardy              54.8%  29.2%  11.9%     0.1%  \nGrigor Dimitrov            45.2%  21.7%   7.8%     0.0%  \nLukasz Kubot               40.4%  17.4%   5.6%     0.0%  \n(10)Nicolas Almagro        59.6%  31.6%  13.1%     0.1%  \n\nPlayer                       R64    R32    R16        W  \n(16)John Isner             94.2%  53.0%  32.2%     0.8%  \n(WC)Benjamin Mitchell       5.8%   0.5%   0.0%     0.0%  \nJarkko Nieminen            33.2%  11.9%   5.2%     0.0%  \nDavid Nalbandian           66.8%  34.6%  20.7%     0.5%  \nFlavio Cipolla             36.4%  14.4%   4.4%     0.0%  \nNikolay Davydenko          63.6%  33.6%  14.9%     0.1%  \nLeonardo Mayer             24.8%   8.0%   1.9%     0.0%  \n(18)Feliciano Lopez        75.2%  44.1%  20.7%     0.3%  \n\nPlayer                       R64    R32    R16        W  \n(28)Ivan Ljubicic          62.6%  37.8%  10.7%     0.2%  \n(q)Lukas Lacko             37.4%  18.1%   3.7%     0.0%  \n(q)Peter Gojowczyk         19.2%   3.7%   0.4%     0.0%  \nDonald Young               80.8%  40.4%  10.3%     0.1%  \nTommy Haas                 34.1%   1.8%   0.3%     0.0%  \n(q)Denis Kudla             65.9%   6.1%   1.6%     0.0%  \n(q)Alex Kuznetsov          10.1%   6.8%   2.4%     0.0%  \n(2)Rafael Nadal            89.9%  85.3%  70.7%    15.1%<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A lot has changed in the last few months of men&#8217;s tennis, yet as far as one computer is concerned, all the important things have remained the same. Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal limped to the finish line of the 2011 season, while Andy Murray didn&#8217;t even get through the round robin in London. \u00a0All &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2012\/01\/14\/australian-open-mens-draw-predictions\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Australian Open Men&#8217;s Draw Predictions<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australian-open","category-forecasting"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/632","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=632"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/632\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=632"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=632"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=632"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}