The Indian Wells draw is out. \u00a0With my latest hard-court rankings, I’ve run simulations on the draw. \u00a0Qualifiers aren’t yet placed, so I set all of the qualifiers equal to the 100th-ranked player.<\/p>\n
I’d like to have some flashy, controversial projections, but the numbers don’t look much different than they did before the Australian Open. \u00a0Djokovic has a 27% chance of winning, Nadal 13.2%, with Murray a bit ahead of Federer. \u00a0Murray not only rates a bit higher in my ranking system after his latest win over Novak, but he has a somewhat easier draw here.<\/p>\n
Here are the full projections:<\/p>\n
Player R64 R32 R16 W \n(1)Novak Djokovic 100.0% 92.2% 78.9% 27.2% \nQualifier1 50.0% 3.9% 1.3% 0.0% \nQualifier2 50.0% 3.9% 1.3% 0.0% \nMatthias Bachinger 34.5% 13.1% 1.7% 0.0% \nPhilipp Kohlschreiber 65.5% 35.2% 7.3% 0.2% \n(29)Kevin Anderson 100.0% 51.6% 9.5% 0.2% \n \nPlayer R64 R32 R16 W \n(18)Florian Mayer 100.0% 69.5% 37.6% 0.7% \nRobin Haase 72.5% 25.8% 10.4% 0.0% \nPablo Andujar 27.5% 4.7% 1.0% 0.0% \nAlbert Ramos 36.8% 6.7% 1.6% 0.0% \n(WC)Jesse Levine 63.2% 17.8% 6.3% 0.0% \nRichard Gasquet 100.0% 75.5% 43.1% 1.0% \n \nPlayer R64 R32 R16 W \n(12)Nicolas Almagro 100.0% 56.8% 23.8% 0.3% \nQualifier3 33.1% 10.6% 2.8% 0.0% \n(WC)Sam Querrey 66.9% 32.6% 13.1% 0.1% \nSantiago Giraldo 80.6% 23.1% 10.2% 0.1% \n(WC)Jack Sock 19.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% \n(17)Kei Nishikori 100.0% 75.1% 49.8% 2.3% \n \nPlayer R64 R32 R16 W \n(30)Andy Roddick 100.0% 62.1% 26.4% 0.6% \nIvo Karlovic 54.8% 22.0% 7.4% 0.1% \nLukasz Kubot 45.2% 15.9% 4.6% 0.0% \nAlex Bogomolov Jr. 48.3% 11.3% 4.6% 0.0% \nSergiy Stakhovsky 51.7% 12.8% 5.3% 0.0% \n(7)Tomas Berdych 100.0% 75.8% 51.7% 3.8% \n \nPlayer R64 R32 R16 W \n(4)Andy Murray 100.0% 83.3% 64.7% 10.0% \nGuillermo Garcia Lopez 80.3% 15.5% 7.3% 0.1% \nRui Machado 19.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% \nFlavio Cipolla 40.2% 13.9% 2.7% 0.0% \nRyan Harrison 59.8% 26.5% 6.8% 0.1% \n(25)Viktor Troicki 100.0% 59.6% 18.2% 0.3% \n \nPlayer R64 R32 R16 W \n(23)Stanislas Wawrinka 100.0% 79.2% 48.0% 1.8% \nQualifier4 61.7% 14.7% 4.9% 0.0% \n(WC)Robby Ginepri 38.3% 6.1% 1.5% 0.0% \nQualifier5 42.6% 11.7% 3.5% 0.0% \nDudi Sela 57.4% 19.3% 6.8% 0.0% \n(13)Gilles Simon 100.0% 69.1% 35.4% 0.8% \n \nPlayer R64 R32 R16 W \n(11)John Isner 100.0% 73.7% 46.1% 1.2% \nQualifier6 50.0% 13.2% 5.0% 0.0% \nQualifier7 50.0% 13.1% 5.0% 0.0% \nQualifier8 48.0% 15.5% 5.0% 0.0% \nNicolas Mahut 52.0% 17.8% 6.1% 0.0% \n(22)Juan Monaco 100.0% 66.7% 32.9% 0.4% \n \nPlayer R64 R32 R16 W \n(32)Julien Benneteau 100.0% 69.1% 29.4% 0.4% \nQualifier9 54.2% 17.7% 4.7% 0.0% \nIgor Kunitsyn 45.8% 13.2% 3.1% 0.0% \nAndreas Seppi 56.1% 18.0% 9.4% 0.1% \nOlivier Rochus 43.9% 12.0% 5.5% 0.0% \n(8)Mardy Fish 100.0% 70.0% 48.0% 2.5% \n \nPlayer R64 R32 R16 W \n(5)David Ferrer 100.0% 67.6% 51.5% 2.2% \nIvan Dodig 54.9% 18.8% 11.7% 0.1% \nGrigor Dimitrov 45.1% 13.6% 7.9% 0.0% \nYen-Hsun Lu 40.7% 26.7% 7.7% 0.0% \nDenis Istomin 59.3% 43.7% 16.0% 0.1% \n(31)Juan Ignacio Chela 100.0% 29.6% 5.2% 0.0% \n \nPlayer R64 R32 R16 W \n(19)Fernando Verdasco 100.0% 62.3% 23.1% 0.4% \nCedrik-Marcel Stebe 56.1% 22.5% 6.5% 0.0% \nRyan Sweeting 43.9% 15.2% 3.8% 0.0% \nQualifier10 50.1% 7.9% 2.7% 0.0% \nQualifier11 49.9% 7.9% 2.7% 0.0% \n(9)Juan Martin Del Potro 100.0% 84.2% 61.3% 6.3% \n \nPlayer R64 R32 R16 W \n(14)Gael Monfils 100.0% 72.9% 51.1% 2.8% \nNikolay Davydenko 65.9% 20.6% 10.7% 0.1% \nQualifier12 34.1% 6.5% 2.4% 0.0% \nLukas Rosol 42.2% 13.4% 3.2% 0.0% \nThomaz Bellucci 57.8% 22.6% 6.9% 0.0% \n(20)Jurgen Melzer 100.0% 64.0% 25.6% 0.3% \n \nPlayer R64 R32 R16 W \n(27)Milos Raonic 100.0% 74.4% 28.2% 1.0% \nCarlos Berlocq 26.0% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% \nBenoit Paire 74.0% 22.2% 4.9% 0.0% \nDmitry Tursunov 49.9% 8.4% 3.0% 0.0% \n(WC)Denis Kudla 50.1% 8.3% 3.0% 0.0% \n(3)Roger Federer 100.0% 83.4% 60.7% 8.7% \n \nPlayer R64 R32 R16 W \n(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 100.0% 71.2% 56.0% 4.6% \nMichael Llodra 46.4% 12.6% 7.4% 0.1% \nErnests Gulbis 53.6% 16.1% 9.9% 0.1% \nXavier Malisse 56.9% 27.0% 7.2% 0.0% \nQualifier13 43.1% 17.4% 3.7% 0.0% \n(28)Radek Stepanek 100.0% 55.6% 15.8% 0.1% \n \nPlayer R64 R32 R16 W \n(24)Marin Cilic 100.0% 60.1% 30.6% 0.9% \nPotito Starac 17.1% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% \nDavid Nalbandian 82.9% 37.4% 17.3% 0.3% \nBernard Tomic 74.2% 38.0% 20.7% 0.7% \nGilles Muller 25.8% 7.0% 2.1% 0.0% \n(10)Janko Tipsarevic 100.0% 55.0% 29.1% 0.9% \n \nPlayer R64 R32 R16 W \n(15)Feliciano Lopez 100.0% 47.8% 24.2% 0.3% \nJeremy Chardy 36.0% 15.5% 6.8% 0.0% \nMarcos Baghdatis 64.0% 36.7% 21.2% 0.6% \nDonald Young 54.1% 21.5% 9.0% 0.1% \nSteve Darcis 45.9% 16.6% 6.2% 0.0% \n(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov 100.0% 61.9% 32.5% 0.7% \n \nPlayer R64 R32 R16 W \n(26)Marcel Granollers 100.0% 67.6% 20.2% 0.6% \nJarkko Nieminen 85.5% 31.1% 6.5% 0.0% \nTommy Haas 14.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% \nAlejandro Falla 68.3% 10.0% 3.9% 0.0% \nLeonardo Mayer 31.7% 2.4% 0.5% 0.0% \n(2)Rafael Nadal 100.0% 87.7% 68.8% 13.2%<\/pre>\n(For those eagle-eyed readers, qualifiers don’t all have identical chances against each other because I’m running a Monte Carlo simulation, running the bracket 100,000 times. This method occasionally results in slight errors, or tiny changes from one simulation to the next.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The Indian Wells draw is out. \u00a0With my latest hard-court rankings, I’ve run simulations on the draw. \u00a0Qualifiers aren’t yet placed, so I set all of the qualifiers equal to the 100th-ranked player. I’d like to have some flashy, controversial projections, but the numbers don’t look much different than they did before the Australian Open. … Continue reading 2012 Indian Wells Draw Predictions<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-664","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forecasting","category-indian-wells"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/664","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=664"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/664\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=664"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=664"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=664"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}