{"id":694,"date":"2012-03-21T17:59:31","date_gmt":"2012-03-21T21:59:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=694"},"modified":"2012-03-21T17:59:31","modified_gmt":"2012-03-21T21:59:31","slug":"who-can-stop-john-isner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2012\/03\/21\/who-can-stop-john-isner\/","title":{"rendered":"Who Can Stop John Isner?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last week, John Isner<\/a> beat world number one Novak Djokovic<\/a>. \u00a0Earlier this year, the victim was Roger Federer<\/a>. \u00a0At least year’s French Open, Rafael Nadal<\/a> had to go to five sets to eliminate the big man. \u00a0Between Isner’s massive serve and the general improvement in his game, it seems that he can beat anybody.<\/p>\n

To beat big John, you need either a strong return game or solid tiebreaker skills. \u00a0Ideally, you’d have both. \u00a0(The only alternatives are to catch him on an off-day or to play him on a slow clay court.) \u00a0Let’s take a look at how opponents have fared against the Isner serve over the course of his career.<\/p>\n

One surprising indicator of return prowess is ace-rate-against. \u00a0We tend to think of ace rate as a function only of the server’s ability, perhaps coupled with surface speed. \u00a0 But returner’s have plenty to say about it, too. \u00a0Simply looking at Isner’s 17 tour-level matches this year<\/a>, we see a remarkable range of ace rates, from 36.6% of points against Gilles Muller<\/a> in Memphis down to 5.6% against Federer in Indian Wells. \u00a0Surface plays a role, as do a variety of other factors (maybe Isner was tired after beating Djokovic in the semifinal last week), but some players are considerably better than others at getting the ball back in play.<\/p>\n

A thorough look at that phenomenon is a subject for another day. \u00a0There’s plenty to do simply comparing performances against Isner. \u00a0As I’ve noted before, a big serve doesn’t necessarily make a player more unpredictable<\/a>, though of course such a weapon might make him a better player.<\/p>\n

63 players have faced Isner at least twice in tour-level events. \u00a0Of those, the most effective has been Lleyton Hewitt<\/a>, holding Isner’s ace rate under 10% and winning almost half of Isner’s serve points. \u00a0However, the most recent of those two matches was almost two years ago. \u00a0Still, it’s not surprising to see a world-class counterpuncher atop this list–Hewitt limits aces and service holds against just about everybody.<\/p>\n

We find more of the same near the top of the list, with Juan Ignacio Chela<\/a>, Gilles Simon<\/a>, and Nikolay Davydenko<\/a> all in the top 10, ranked by the rate of return points won. \u00a0Height might also help in handling the physics-defying bounces of the Isner serve: both Tomas Berdych<\/a> and Juan Martin Del Potro<\/a> are among the top 15, though some other tall guys (Kevin Anderson<\/a> and Ivo Karlovic<\/a> are shown below) have generally weak return games, so the argument doesn’t seem to apply to them.<\/p>\n

The unexpected contrast on this list is to find Nadal several spots below Djokovic, Federer, and Andy Murray<\/a>. \u00a0Nadal allows about\u00a0the same ace rate as Djokovic and Murray, but he doesn’t perform as well on the balls he gets back in play. \u00a0One popular theory is that because of his height, Isner is able to neutralize some of Rafa’s spin. \u00a0Regardless of the reason why, it’s even more unexpected to see Rafa so far down the list, since two of the three Nadal-Isner matches have taken place on clay.<\/p>\n

Here are some of the raw results for players who have faced Isner two or more times. \u00a0I’ve shown the 20 opponents who have won the most return points, along with ten other notable players, whose ranks (out of 63) are shown in parenthesis.<\/p>\n

Opponent                 SvPts  Matches   Ace%  SvPtsWon  \nLleyton Hewitt             124        2   8.9%     53.2%  \nTomas Berdych              300        3  11.7%     57.7%  \nThiemo De Bakker*          165        2   9.1%     60.0%  \nMikhail Youzhny            258        2  16.3%     61.6%  \nJuan Ignacio Chela         269        3   6.7%     62.1%  \nNovak Djokovic             191        2  14.1%     62.3%  \nAndy Murray                224        2  13.8%     62.5%  \nRoger Federer              243        3  11.5%     63.0%  \nGilles Simon               244        2  15.2%     63.9%  \nNikolay Davydenko          248        3  18.5%     64.1%  \n\nDavid Ferrer               326        4  14.7%     64.4%  \nViktor Troicki             234        3   9.0%     64.5%  \nJuan Martin Del Potro      201        3  16.4%     64.7%  \nRobin Haase                233        2  15.0%     64.8%  \nRafael Nadal               336        3  13.7%     64.9%  \nRichard Gasquet            221        2  19.0%     65.2%  \nMarat Safin                115        2  13.9%     65.2%  \nMardy Fish                 424        4  13.4%     65.6%  \nDavid Nalbandian           259        2  19.7%     65.6%  \nFeliciano Lopez            207        2  19.3%     66.2%  \n\n(22) Jurgen Melzer         177        2  16.4%     66.7%  \n(25) Fernando Gonzalez     185        2  16.8%     68.6%  \n(27) Gael Monfils          651        6  15.4%     69.1%  \n(29) Andy Roddick          466        5  20.0%     69.5%  \n(32) Jo Wilfried Tsonga    227        2  13.2%     70.5%  \n(40) Kevin Anderson        443        6  16.9%     71.6%  \n(41) Ivo Karlovic          289        3  15.9%     71.6%  \n(46) Lukasz Kubot          167        2  21.0%     73.1%  \n(57) Alex Bogomolov Jr     221        3  23.1%     77.4%  \n(63) Andrey Golubev        127        2   9.4%     84.3%<\/pre>\n
(De Bakker gets an asterisk because one of his two matches immediately followed Isner-Mahut, and John was playing injured.)<\/p>\n
An interesting avenue for further research is whether return quality against Isner differs much from return quality against players in general. \u00a0Sure, Isner wins more points on serve and hits more aces, but looking at the list above, it doesn’t seem to differ much from a ranking of the game’s best returners. \u00a0For all of his uniqueness, he’s simply one very big server in a game full of big servers. \u00a0As he goes deeper in more tournaments, perhaps we’ll gain a better grasp of what players need to do to stop him.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Last week, John Isner beat world number one Novak Djokovic. \u00a0Earlier this year, the victim was Roger Federer. \u00a0At least year’s French Open, Rafael Nadal had to go to five sets to eliminate the big man. \u00a0Between Isner’s massive serve and the general improvement in his game, it seems that he can beat anybody. To … Continue reading Who Can Stop John Isner?<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-research"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/694","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=694"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/694\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=694"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=694"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=694"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}