{"id":7302,"date":"2024-11-28T12:04:40","date_gmt":"2024-11-28T12:04:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=7302"},"modified":"2024-11-28T12:04:40","modified_gmt":"2024-11-28T12:04:40","slug":"how-does-jannik-sinners-season-stack-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2024\/11\/28\/how-does-jannik-sinners-season-stack-up\/","title":{"rendered":"How Does Jannik Sinner’s Season Stack Up?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Jannik Sinner, defying gravity<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Jannik Sinner just wrapped up a season for the ages. He won both hard-court majors, three Masters 1000s, and the Tour Finals. He led Team Italy to a Davis Cup championship and ended his campaign on a 26-set<\/em> winning streak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By November, the Italian was no longer competing against the field: He was gunning for a place in the record books. He went undefeated against players outside the top 20. Not a single player straight-setted him: He won at least one set in each of his 79 matches. Only Roger Federer, in 2005, had ever managed that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After Sinner won the Australian Open, I wrote that Yes, Jannik Sinner Really Is This Good<\/a>. Since then, he got even better. In the seven-month span ending in Melbourne, the Italian held 91.1% of his service games, a mark that not only led the tour but put him in the company of some of the greatest servers of all time. For the entire 2024 season, he upped that figure to 91.5%–including<\/em> thirteen matches on clay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also defied the most powerful force in all of sport, regression to the mean. Sinner’s hold percentage was aided by some sterling work saving break points. He won tons of service points, of course, but he was even better facing break point. The average top-50 player is worse: Good returners generate more break points, so it’s a tough trend to defy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the 52 weeks ending in Melbourne, Sinner had won three percentage points more<\/em> break points than overall service points. I wrote then: “I can tell you what usually happens after a season of break-point overperformance: It doesn\u2019t last.” In the Italian’s case, though, it did. In 2024 as a whole, he won 71.1% of service points, and 73.6% of break points. He would have enjoyed a productive season without repeating his break-point overperformance, but those two-and-a-half percentage points explain much of the gap between very good and historically great.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clubbable<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most players who serve so effectively are middling returners. The Italian has bucked that trend as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Late in 2023 I wrote about tennis most exclusive clubs<\/a>–Alex Gruskin’s method for identifying standout players by their rankings in the hold and break percentage categories. It’s rare for anyone to crack the top ten in both. In 2023, Sinner signaled what was coming by finishing in both top fives<\/em>. He ranked fifth by hold percentage and fourth by break percentage. Most seasons, that would have been enough for a year-end number one, but Novak Djokovic was even better, finishing in the top three on both sides of the ball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sinner, as we’ve seen, served even better this year. His 91.5% hold percentage was well clear of the pack<\/a>, even with the resurgence of countryman Matteo Berrettini and increased time on tour from rocket men Ben Shelton and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Last season, Djokovic led the tour by holding 88.9% of his service games. That’s impressive, especially for a guy known for other parts of his game, but it wouldn’t have cracked the 2024 top three. The Italian set a new standard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, his return barely flagged. He fell out of the the top five by the narrowest of margins, winning nearly as many return games as he did in 2023 but falling to sixth place. Still, a “top-six club” showing is plenty rare. The only players who have posted one since 1991 (when these stats became available) are Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and Andre Agassi. Federer only managed it once. Sinner has now done it twice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Italian’s return skills are even more impressive when we compare him the other season-best servers of the last thirty-plus years. The following table shows the hold-percentage leader for each year, along with his break percentage and his rank (among the ATP top 50) in that category:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Year  Player             Hold%   Brk%  Rank  \n1991  Pete Sampras       87.3%  25.4%    40  \n1992  Goran Ivanisevic   88.8%  20.4%    48  \n1993  Pete Sampras       89.6%  27.7%    19  \n1994  Pete Sampras       88.4%  29.3%    19  \n1995  Pete Sampras       89.0%  26.0%    25  \n1996  Pete Sampras       90.8%  20.8%    43  \n1997  Greg Rusedski      91.6%  16.7%    50  \n1998  Richard Krajicek   89.2%  21.4%    41  \n1999  Pete Sampras       89.7%  21.7%    44  \n2000  Pete Sampras       91.7%  18.4%    49  \n2001  Andy Roddick       90.4%  19.7%    45  \n2002  Greg Rusedski      88.5%  17.6%    48\n\nYear  Player             Hold%   Brk%  Rank    \n2003  Andy Roddick       91.5%  20.9%    43  \n2004  Joachim Johansson  91.9%  14.5%    48  \n2005  Andy Roddick       92.5%  20.8%    45  \n2006  Andy Roddick       90.5%  22.4%    43  \n2007  Ivo Karlovic       94.5%   9.8%    50  \n2008  Andy Roddick       91.2%  19.2%    40  \n2009  Ivo Karlovic       92.2%  10.3%    50  \n2010  Andy Roddick       91.1%  17.6%    47  \n2011  John Isner         90.7%  12.9%    50  \n2012  Milos Raonic       92.7%  15.1%    49  \n2013  Milos Raonic       91.4%  15.7%    49  \n2014  John Isner         93.1%   9.3%    49  \n\nYear  Player             Hold%   Brk%  Rank  \n2015  Ivo Karlovic       95.5%   9.6%    50  \n2016  John Isner         93.4%  10.9%    49  \n2017  John Isner         92.9%   9.6%    50  \n2018  John Isner         93.8%   9.4%    50  \n2019  John Isner         94.1%   9.7%    49  \n2020  Milos Raonic       93.9%  18.0%    44  \n2021  John Isner         91.1%   8.8%    50  \n2022  Nick Kyrgios       92.9%  19.3%    40  \n2023  Novak Djokovic     88.9%  28.8%     3  \n2024  Jannik Sinner      91.5%  28.3%     6<\/pre>\n\n\n\n
If it hadn’t been for Djokovic’s appearance at the top of last year’s list, Sinner’s 2024 campaign would be hardly recognizable. Even Pete Sampras struggled to hold on to a spot in the break-percentage top 20. Circuit-best servers simply aren’t supposed to win so many return games, yet Sinner threatens to make it the new normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Carrot yElo<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Italian’s 73 wins, including 18 against the top ten, took his Elo rating to new heights. He began the year with a career-high rating of 2,197, second on the circuit to Djokovic. He quickly took over the top spot, ultimately clearing the 2,300 mark with his victory at the Tour Finals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Elo is not a perfect measure to compare players from different eras, but in my opinion, it’s the best we’ve got. It’s the basis of my Tennis 128<\/a>, which Sinner will join as soon as I get around to updating the calculations. 2,300 is rarefied air: In the last half-century, he is only the twelfth player to reach that mark. With three singles victories to secure the Davis Cup, he nudged his rating up to 2,309<\/a>, surpassing Mats Wilander and establishing the eleventh-highest peak since the formation of the ATP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A stratospheric Elo is an indication of an outstanding player at the top of his game, but the metric is not designed to rate seasons<\/em>. The alternative is yElo, a variation I devised<\/a> for exactly this purpose. yElo works the same way as Elo does, adding or subtracting points based on wins, losses, and the quality of opposition. But unlike the more traditional measure, each player starts the season with a clean slate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By regular Elo, Sinner holds a 150-point lead over second-place Carlos Alcaraz. By yElo, with its narrower focus, the Italian is even more dominant<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
(The won-loss records are a bit different from official figures because my Elo and yElo calculations exclude matches that ended in retirement.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The two-hundred-point gap between Sinner and Djokovic is one of the largest ever. Again going back to 1973, it ranks fourth. Only 2004 and 2006 Federer (over Lleyton Hewitt and Nadal, respectively) and 1984 John McEnroe (over Wilander) outpaced the competition by such a substantial margin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By raw yElo, Sinner’s 2024 isn’t quite so historic. It’s the 26th best of the last half-century: An impressive feat, but not as close to the top of the list as some of the other trivia suggests. Here’s the list:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Year  Player              W-L  yElo  \n1979  Bjorn Borg         84-5  2499  \n1984  John McEnroe       82-3  2476  \n2015  Novak Djokovic     82-6  2458  \n1985  Ivan Lendl         82-7  2440  \n2016  Andy Murray        78-9  2416  \n2013  Novak Djokovic     74-9  2408  \n1976  Jimmy Connors      97-7  2406  \n1977  Bjorn Borg         78-6  2403  \n1977  Guillermo Vilas  133-13  2401  \n2006  Roger Federer      91-5  2399  \n1980  Bjorn Borg         70-5  2395  \n1981  Ivan Lendl        96-12  2383  \n1987  Ivan Lendl         73-7  2381  \n1982  Ivan Lendl        105-9  2380  \n1978  Jimmy Connors      66-5  2379  \n\nYear  Player              W-L  yElo  \n2013  Rafael Nadal       74-7  2373  \n1986  Ivan Lendl         74-6  2369  \n2011  Novak Djokovic     63-4  2367  \n2005  Roger Federer      80-4  2364  \n2014  Novak Djokovic     61-8  2363  \n2012  Novak Djokovic    73-12  2360  \n1978  Bjorn Borg         79-6  2359  \n2008  Rafael Nadal      81-10  2352  \n1986  Boris Becker      69-13  2347  \n1982  John McEnroe       71-9  2341  \n2024  Jannik Sinner      72-6  2339  \n1983  Mats Wilander     80-11  2338  \n1974  Jimmy Connors      94-5  2332  \n1989  Boris Becker       64-8  2329  \n2015  Roger Federer     62-11  2329<\/pre>\n\n\n\n
One factor holding back Jannik’s 2024 is the number of matches played. Elo, in part, reflects the confidence we have in a rating. Winning 90% of 100 matches (or almost 150, in the case of Vilas) gives us more confidence in an assessment than 90% of 80 matches. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another issue is that Elo has opinions about strong and weak eras. Going 70-5 in 1980 doesn’t look much different than 72-6 today, but Elo considers Bjorn Borg’s peers to have been stronger than Sinner’s. If Sinner and Alcaraz continue to improve and a couple of their peers emerge as superstars in their own right, then<\/em> a 72-6 season might rank much higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The asphalt jungle<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
A couple of months ago, pundits started mulling where Sinner’s 2024 stood among the greatest hard-court<\/em> seasons of all time. Since then, he piled on so many more wins that the qualifier wasn’t needed. Yet it remains a valid question. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Italian’s highlights came almost entirely on hard courts. He won 53 of 56 matches, 42 of them in straight sets. He’s plenty skilled on natural surfaces, but given a predictable bounce and conditions that emphasize his power and penetration, opponents don’t stand a chance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I don’t publish surface-specific yElo ratings, because they have limited usefulness for much of the year. For our purposes, though, hard-court yElo–same algorithm, limited to matches on one surface–is just the ticket. By this measure, Sinner’s 2024 is the eighth-best of all time:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Year  Player          Hard W-L  Hard yElo  \n2015  Novak Djokovic      59-5       2426  \n2013  Novak Djokovic      53-5       2413  \n2012  Novak Djokovic      48-5       2377  \n2005  Roger Federer       49-1       2374  \n2006  Roger Federer       59-2       2373  \n1995  Andre Agassi        52-3       2370  \n2016  Andy Murray         48-6       2363  \n2024  Jannik Sinner       52-3       2353  \n2010  Roger Federer       45-7       2338  \n2014  Novak Djokovic      40-6       2334 \n\nYear  Player          Hard W-L  Hard yElo   \n2014  Roger Federer       56-7       2333  \n1985  Ivan Lendl          29-3       2332  \n1987  Ivan Lendl          33-2       2325  \n1996  Pete Sampras        46-4       2319  \n2015  Roger Federer       38-6       2318  \n1981  Ivan Lendl          41-3       2317  \n2011  Roger Federer       45-7       2314  \n2009  Novak Djokovic     53-10       2309  \n1985  John McEnroe        25-1       2309  \n1986  Ivan Lendl          30-2       2298<\/pre>\n\n\n\n
So, um, peak Djokovic was pretty good, huh?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even though Elo doesn’t hold the rest of the 2024 field in particularly high regard, Sinner’s season was so dominant that he does well by this measure. A year that would rate as Djokovic’s fourth-best, Federer’s third, or Agassi’s second, is truly something worth celebrating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Italian still has some ground to cover before he challenges Novak, Roger, and the rest for all-time hard-court dominance. But he has already upped the standard for the 2020s and posted one of the most remarkable two-year spans in the game’s history. Sinner has built an enormous gap between himself and the field, and it is increasingly difficult to see how his peers will close it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Jannik Sinner just wrapped up a season for the ages. He won both hard-court majors, three Masters 1000s, and the Tour Finals. He led Team Italy to a Davis Cup championship and ended his campaign on a 26-set winning streak. By November, the Italian was no longer competing against the field: He was gunning for … Continue reading How Does Jannik Sinner’s Season Stack Up?<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,91,97,105],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7302","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elo-ratings","category-rankings","category-return-stats","category-serve-statistics"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7302","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7302"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7302\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7306,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7302\/revisions\/7306"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}