Yesterday we saw who gained and lost from the French Open draw. \u00a0Today we get to what you really care about: Each player’s odds of progressing through the tournament.<\/p>\n
According to my ranking system, combined with the actual draw, this year’s favorite is … a tie. \u00a0How’s that for a cop out–virtually even odds for Rafael Nadal<\/a> and Novak Djokovic<\/a>, both with roughly 30% chances of winning the event. \u00a0Roger Federer<\/a> is in a distant third at 12%, with the unlikely Janko Tipsarevic<\/a> far behind him in fourth with 5.7%. \u00a0No one (including myself) cares much for Janko’s chances, but this is a man who has beaten both Djokovic and Tomas Berdych<\/a> on clay. \u00a0With the exception of David Ferrer<\/a> (languishing as 8th favorite, below 3%), no one in the following pack has shown much clay-court consistency.<\/p>\n The highest-rated non-seeds are David Nalbandian<\/a>, Thomaz Bellucci<\/a>, and Marcos Baghdatis<\/a>. \u00a0Nalbandian, of course, has a probable second-rounder with Federer, but if he gets through it, he’ll have the benefits of Federer’s easy early-round draw. \u00a0Baghdatis will have an early test in Nicolas Almagro<\/a>, a man who is in form but may have spent his energy in the wrong French city. \u00a0And Bellucci drew Viktor Troicki<\/a>, one of the weakest seeds, despite the Serb’s strong showing in Dusseldorf this week.<\/p>\n The full odds are below. \u00a0By Tuesday or Wednesday, I should have a page published that will update odds throughout the tournament.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yesterday we saw who gained and lost from the French Open draw. \u00a0Today we get to what you really care about: Each player’s odds of progressing through the tournament. According to my ranking system, combined with the actual draw, this year’s favorite is … a tie. \u00a0How’s that for a cop out–virtually even odds for … Continue reading 2012 French Open Projections<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,41],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forecasting","category-french-open"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/743","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=743"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/743\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=743"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=743"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=743"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}} Player R64 R32 R16 W \n1 Novak Djokovic 96.6% 93.4% 88.1% 30.2% \n Potito Starace 3.4% 1.8% 0.7% 0.0% \n Blaz Kavcic 78.1% 4.5% 2.0% 0.0% \nWC Lleyton Hewitt 21.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% \nq Filip Krajinovic 59.1% 18.6% 1.1% 0.0% \nq Nicolas Devilder 40.9% 9.9% 0.4% 0.0% \nq Michael Berrer 30.1% 17.8% 1.2% 0.0% \n30 Jurgen Melzer 69.9% 53.7% 6.5% 0.0% \n \n Player R64 R32 R16 W \n22 Andreas Seppi 56.5% 33.5% 16.1% 0.0% \n Nikolay Davydenko 43.5% 23.0% 9.8% 0.0% \n Mikhail Kukushkin 49.4% 21.3% 8.4% 0.0% \n Ernests Gulbis 50.6% 22.2% 8.9% 0.0% \nq Igor Sijsling 51.1% 15.2% 6.2% 0.0% \n Gilles Muller 48.9% 14.3% 5.7% 0.0% \n Steve Darcis 24.1% 12.3% 5.1% 0.0% \n14 Fernando Verdasco 75.9% 58.2% 39.9% 0.2% \n \n Player R64 R32 R16 W \n11 Gilles Simon 73.8% 59.4% 32.4% 0.3% \n Ryan Harrison 26.2% 15.7% 5.1% 0.0% \n Xavier Malisse 70.7% 20.5% 6.0% 0.0% \nWC Brian Baker 29.3% 4.4% 0.7% 0.0% \n Pablo Andujar 57.2% 13.7% 4.5% 0.0% \n Victor Hanescu 42.8% 8.3% 2.3% 0.0% \n Flavio Cipolla 15.4% 7.4% 2.1% 0.0% \n18 Stanislas Wawrinka 84.6% 70.6% 46.8% 0.8% \n \n Player R64 R32 R16 W \n28 Viktor Troicki 41.9% 25.6% 6.2% 0.0% \n Thomaz Bellucci 58.1% 39.7% 11.8% 0.0% \n Fabio Fognini 54.9% 20.2% 3.9% 0.0% \nWC Adrian Mannarino 45.1% 14.5% 2.4% 0.0% \n Cedrik-Marcel Stebe 58.0% 9.3% 3.9% 0.0% \n Joao Souza 42.0% 5.2% 1.8% 0.0% \nq Andrey Kuznetsov 10.2% 5.1% 2.0% 0.0% \n5 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 89.8% 80.5% 68.0% 4.5% \n \n Player R64 R32 R16 W \n3 Roger Federer 93.5% 81.7% 73.8% 12.0% \n Tobias Kamke 6.5% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% \n Adrian Ungur 24.7% 2.0% 0.8% 0.0% \n David Nalbandian 75.3% 14.1% 9.0% 0.1% \n Frank Dancevic 43.6% 17.7% 2.1% 0.0% \n Martin Klizan 56.4% 25.9% 3.8% 0.0% \n Nicolas Mahut 27.8% 11.0% 1.0% 0.0% \n26 Andy Roddick 72.2% 45.4% 8.7% 0.0% \n \n Player R64 R32 R16 W \n23 Radek Stepanek 46.6% 27.7% 13.2% 0.0% \nLL David Goffin 53.4% 33.8% 17.3% 0.0% \nWC Arnaud Clement 36.0% 10.9% 3.3% 0.0% \n Alex Bogomolov Jr. 64.0% 27.5% 11.8% 0.0% \n Karol Beck 33.9% 9.3% 3.1% 0.0% \n Lukasz Kubot 66.1% 27.4% 13.6% 0.0% \nq Florent Serra 26.0% 11.9% 4.7% 0.0% \n15 Feliciano Lopez 74.0% 51.4% 32.9% 0.0% \n \n Player R64 R32 R16 W \n9 Juan Martin Del Potro 87.7% 78.8% 63.9% 3.2% \n Albert Montanes 12.3% 6.7% 2.6% 0.0% \n E. Roger-Vasselin 50.0% 7.3% 2.6% 0.0% \n Vasek Pospisil 50.0% 7.2% 2.5% 0.0% \n Juan Carlos Ferrero 63.6% 27.3% 6.6% 0.0% \nWC J. Dasnieres De Veigy 36.4% 11.3% 2.0% 0.0% \nq D. Munoz-De La Nava 21.4% 7.9% 1.2% 0.0% \n21 Marin Cilic 78.6% 53.5% 18.5% 0.1% \n \n Player R64 R32 R16 W \n31 Kevin Anderson 70.0% 50.1% 15.9% 0.0% \n Rui Machado 30.0% 15.8% 2.9% 0.0% \nWC Eric Prodon 41.2% 12.2% 1.8% 0.0% \nq Horacio Zeballos 58.8% 21.9% 4.3% 0.0% \n Michael Llodra 46.9% 10.0% 5.2% 0.0% \n Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 53.1% 12.5% 6.8% 0.0% \n Dudi Sela 12.3% 4.8% 2.1% 0.0% \n7 Tomas Berdych 87.7% 72.6% 61.0% 2.3% \n \n Player R64 R32 R16 W \n6 David Ferrer 84.0% 70.2% 55.9% 2.4% \n Lukas Lacko 16.0% 7.8% 3.4% 0.0% \n Benoit Paire 49.1% 10.7% 4.7% 0.0% \n Albert Ramos 50.9% 11.2% 5.0% 0.0% \n Ivan Dodig 56.2% 31.3% 10.5% 0.0% \n Robin Haase 43.8% 21.6% 6.2% 0.0% \n James Blake 31.1% 10.6% 2.0% 0.0% \n27 Mikhail Youzhny 68.9% 36.5% 12.2% 0.0% \n \n Player R64 R32 R16 W \n20 Marcel Granollers 66.9% 44.7% 22.7% 0.1% \nq Joao Sousa 33.1% 16.4% 5.9% 0.0% \n Malek Jaziri 45.3% 16.6% 5.6% 0.0% \n Philipp Petzschner 54.7% 22.3% 8.6% 0.0% \nWC Paul-Henri Mathieu 50.0% 11.4% 3.7% 0.0% \n Bjorn Phau 50.0% 11.4% 3.6% 0.0% \nq Rogerio Dutra Silva 18.5% 9.7% 3.4% 0.0% \n10 John Isner 81.5% 67.5% 46.5% 0.5% \n \n Player R64 R32 R16 W \n16 Alexandr Dolgopolov 70.8% 58.8% 27.9% 0.2% \n Sergiy Stakhovsky 29.3% 19.4% 5.7% 0.0% \n Filippo Volandri 62.9% 15.5% 3.2% 0.0% \nq Tommy Haas 37.1% 6.2% 0.9% 0.0% \n Donald Young 43.2% 9.8% 3.8% 0.0% \n Grigor DiMitrov 56.8% 15.5% 6.8% 0.0% \nq Jurgen Zopp 17.8% 8.5% 3.3% 0.0% \n17 Richard Gasquet 82.2% 66.2% 48.5% 1.4% \n \n Player R64 R32 R16 W \n25 Bernard Tomic 73.8% 47.6% 17.1% 0.1% \nq Andreas Haider-Maurer 26.2% 10.4% 1.9% 0.0% \n Santiago Giraldo 63.3% 29.5% 8.5% 0.0% \n Alejandro Falla 36.7% 12.5% 2.4% 0.0% \n Jarkko Nieminen 48.3% 8.4% 3.2% 0.0% \n Igor Andreev 51.7% 9.8% 3.8% 0.0% \n Tatsuma Ito 8.9% 3.4% 0.9% 0.0% \n4 Andy Murray 91.1% 78.4% 62.1% 3.8% \n \n Player R64 R32 R16 W \n8 Janko Tipsarevic 82.5% 72.8% 64.6% 5.7% \n Sam Querrey 17.5% 10.7% 6.7% 0.0% \n Jeremy Chardy 64.0% 12.2% 6.9% 0.0% \n Yen-Hsun Lu 36.0% 4.3% 1.8% 0.0% \n Dmitry Tursunov 49.3% 17.2% 2.5% 0.0% \n Go Soeda 50.7% 17.9% 2.5% 0.0% \nq Mischa Zverev 34.1% 18.6% 3.1% 0.0% \n29 Julien Benneteau 65.9% 46.3% 11.8% 0.0% \n \n Player R64 R32 R16 W \n24 Philipp Kohlschreiber 70.5% 47.1% 23.0% 0.1% \n Matthew Ebden 29.5% 13.5% 3.9% 0.0% \n Olivier Rochus 41.2% 14.2% 4.1% 0.0% \n Leonardo Mayer 58.8% 25.1% 9.2% 0.0% \n Juan Ignacio Chela 29.5% 9.0% 3.6% 0.0% \n Marcos Baghdatis 70.5% 34.8% 21.1% 0.1% \n Paolo Lorenzi 21.6% 7.0% 2.5% 0.0% \n12 Nicolas Almagro 78.4% 49.2% 32.5% 0.2% \n \n Player R64 R32 R16 W \n13 Juan Monaco 69.3% 48.7% 23.3% 0.1% \nWC Guillaume Rufin 30.7% 15.7% 4.9% 0.0% \n Lukas Rosol 52.5% 19.2% 6.0% 0.0% \n Carlos Berlocq 47.5% 16.4% 4.9% 0.0% \nq Jesse Levine 50.8% 10.1% 3.2% 0.0% \n Benjamin Becker 49.2% 9.6% 2.9% 0.0% \n Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo 13.4% 6.3% 1.8% 0.0% \n19 Milos Raonic 86.6% 74.0% 52.9% 0.6% \n \n Player R64 R32 R16 W \n32 Florian Mayer 71.3% 50.2% 7.5% 0.1% \n Daniel Gimeno-Traver 28.7% 13.8% 1.0% 0.0% \nq Eduardo Schwank 43.4% 14.2% 1.0% 0.0% \n Ivo Karlovic 56.6% 21.8% 1.9% 0.0% \n Igor Kunitsyn 31.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% \n Denis Istomin 68.3% 4.9% 2.2% 0.0% \n Simone Bolelli 3.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.0% \n2 Rafael Nadal 96.2% 92.1% 85.3% 30.4%<\/pre>\n