{"id":830,"date":"2012-07-26T09:47:30","date_gmt":"2012-07-26T13:47:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=830"},"modified":"2012-07-26T09:47:30","modified_gmt":"2012-07-26T13:47:30","slug":"2012-olympics-mens-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2012\/07\/26\/2012-olympics-mens-projections\/","title":{"rendered":"2012 Olympics Men’s Projections"},"content":{"rendered":"

The draw is out. \u00a0Roger Federer<\/a> is in one half, and everybody else is in the other.<\/p>\n

Maybe that’s a harsh assessment of the 31 men who share the Olympic singles bracket<\/a> with the world number one, but it’s a tough conclusion to avoid. \u00a0In the other half, Novak Djokovic<\/a> is slated to meet Andy Murray<\/a> in a semi, while Roger’s likely opponents are David Ferrer<\/a> and Juan Martin Del Potro<\/a>, \u00a0against whom he is on a combined 10-match winning streak<\/a>. \u00a0Jo Wilfried Tsonga<\/a> and Tomas Berdych<\/a>—two men who I noted could derail Fed’s quest for the gold<\/a>–are also in the bottom half, with Tsonga lined up against Djokovic and Berdych against Murray.<\/p>\n

The only thing that could count against Federer are some past near-misses<\/a>. \u00a0In the first round, he’ll face Alejandro Falla<\/a>, and in the second, he could see Julien Benneteau<\/a>. \u00a0Both men have taken him to five sets on the Wimbledon grass–in both cases, winning the first two sets. \u00a0In a best-of-three event, there isn’t quite so much wiggle room. \u00a0But even in the quarterfinals, Fed’s likely opponents are John Isner<\/a>, David Nalbandian<\/a>, and Janko Tipsarevic<\/a>. \u00a0He couldn’t have drawn it up any better if they had let him.<\/p>\n

This is a rare occasion where the draw does make a difference. \u00a0According to jrank<\/a>, Djokovic still has a moderate edge over Federer on hard courts. \u00a0If the draw were randomized, Novak would have a 23.8% chance of winning the gold, while Roger would be a close second at 21.9%. \u00a0With the actual draw, the difference is more than halved. \u00a0Federer’s chances stay the same, with Novak’s dropping to 22.7%.<\/p>\n

After the top two, Murray is the clear-cut choice for the bronze, with a 12.1% chance of winning the tournament outright. \u00a0Ferrer and Delpo follow, in position to take advantage of the weaker top half should Federer fall.<\/p>\n

Below, find the forecast for the entire field. \u00a0To see my current hard-court rankings, click here<\/a>, and for some background on the system, click here<\/a>. \u00a0Women’s Olympic singles forecasts will be posted in a little while.<\/p>\n

Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  \n(1)Roger Federer          88.0%  69.8%  59.5%    21.9%  \nAlejandro Falla           12.0%   4.1%   1.8%     0.0%  \nJulien Benneteau          43.9%  10.5%   5.9%     0.3%  \nMikhail Youzhny           56.1%  15.6%   9.9%     0.9%  \n(WC)Adrian Ungur          20.2%   2.9%   0.2%     0.0%  \nGilles Muller             79.8%  32.2%   6.2%     0.1%  \nDenis Istomin             44.3%  27.5%   6.4%     0.2%  \n(14)Fernando Verdasco     55.7%  37.5%  10.2%     0.6%  \n\nPlayer                      R32    R16     QF        W  \n(10)John Isner            72.9%  54.2%  31.4%     2.6%  \nOlivier Rochus            27.1%  14.4%   5.1%     0.1%  \nYen-Hsun Lu               56.4%  19.1%   6.5%     0.1%  \n(WC)Malek Jaziri          43.6%  12.4%   3.5%     0.0%  \nLukas Lacko               40.8%  13.7%   5.7%     0.1%  \nIvo Karlovic              59.2%  25.1%  12.6%     0.4%  \nDavid Nalbandian          50.3%  30.8%  17.7%     1.2%  \n(7)Janko Tipsarevic       49.7%  30.4%  17.5%     1.1%  \n\nPlayer                      R32    R16     QF        W  \n(4)David Ferrer           82.6%  59.4%  41.0%     6.8%  \n(WC)Vasek Pospisil        17.4%   6.5%   2.1%     0.0%  \nPhilipp Kohlschreiber     75.7%  29.7%  15.4%     0.9%  \n(WC)Blaz Kavcic           24.3%   4.5%   1.1%     0.0%  \nRadek Stepanek            50.3%  21.5%   7.8%     0.3%  \nNikolay Davydenko         49.7%  20.9%   7.5%     0.2%  \nBernard Tomic             43.8%  23.6%   9.4%     0.5%  \n(15)Kei Nishikori         56.2%  34.0%  15.7%     1.2%  \n\nPlayer                      R32    R16     QF        W  \n(12)Gilles Simon          62.9%  36.4%  16.3%     0.8%  \nMikhail Kukushkin         37.1%  16.7%   5.6%     0.1%  \nLukasz Kubot              48.1%  22.1%   8.1%     0.2%  \nGrigor Dimitrov           51.9%  24.7%   9.5%     0.3%  \nAndreas Seppi             56.2%  17.5%   8.2%     0.2%  \nDonald Young              43.8%  11.6%   4.7%     0.1%  \nIvan Dodig                25.3%  13.5%   6.3%     0.1%  \n(8)Juan Martin Del Potro  74.7%  57.3%  41.4%     5.9%  \n\nPlayer                      R32    R16     QF        W  \n(6)Tomas Berdych          70.7%  49.7%  33.6%     3.0%  \nSteve Darcis              29.4%  14.6%   6.9%     0.1%  \nSantiago Giraldo          44.9%  15.0%   6.6%     0.1%  \nRyan Harrison             55.1%  20.7%  10.2%     0.2%  \nAlex Bogomolov Jr.        70.9%  27.3%   9.9%     0.1%  \nCarlos Berlocq            29.1%   5.9%   1.2%     0.0%  \nViktor Troicki            45.0%  29.1%  13.0%     0.4%  \n(11)Nicolas Almagro       55.0%  37.7%  18.5%     0.8%  \n\nPlayer                      R32    R16     QF        W  \n(16)Richard Gasquet       67.9%  39.9%  15.0%     0.9%  \nRobin Haase               32.1%  12.9%   3.1%     0.0%  \nGo Soeda                  33.8%  12.5%   2.9%     0.0%  \nMarcos Baghdatis          66.2%  34.7%  12.1%     0.6%  \n(WC)Somdev Devvarman      33.6%   4.8%   1.4%     0.0%  \nJarkko Nieminen           66.4%  16.1%   7.4%     0.2%  \nStanislas Wawrinka        26.2%  17.1%   9.6%     0.6%  \n(3)Andy Murray            73.8%  62.1%  48.5%    12.1%  \n\nPlayer                      R32    R16     QF        W  \n(5)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     78.7%  54.8%  38.2%     5.1%  \n(WC)Thomaz Bellucci       21.3%   8.4%   3.2%     0.0%  \nTatsuma Ito               28.1%   6.5%   2.2%     0.0%  \nMilos Raonic              71.9%  30.3%  16.8%     0.9%  \nDmitry Tursunov           36.6%  13.9%   4.3%     0.1%  \nFeliciano Lopez           63.4%  32.6%  13.5%     0.6%  \nDavid Goffin              40.0%  19.0%   6.6%     0.2%  \n(9)Juan Monaco            60.0%  34.6%  15.2%     0.8%  \n\nPlayer                      R32    R16     QF        W  \n(13)Marin Cilic           56.2%  43.0%  13.1%     1.2%  \nJurgen Melzer             43.8%  31.4%   8.2%     0.5%  \n(WC)Lleyton Hewitt        31.7%   5.2%   0.4%     0.0%  \n(WC)Sergiy Stakhovsky     68.3%  20.3%   3.1%     0.1%  \nAndy Roddick              78.0%  22.3%  13.6%     1.5%  \nMartin Klizan             22.0%   2.6%   0.8%     0.0%  \nFabio Fognini              9.0%   2.7%   0.9%     0.0%  \n(2)Novak Djokovic         91.0%  72.4%  59.9%    22.7%<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The draw is out. \u00a0Roger Federer is in one half, and everybody else is in the other. Maybe that’s a harsh assessment of the 31 men who share the Olympic singles bracket with the world number one, but it’s a tough conclusion to avoid. \u00a0In the other half, Novak Djokovic is slated to meet Andy … Continue reading 2012 Olympics Men’s Projections<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,81],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forecasting","category-olympics"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=830"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/830\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}