Forecasting the women’s singles event isn’t rocket science–it’s just a matter of how much you favor Serena Williams over everyone else.<\/p>\n
My algorithm gives Serena a 22.7% chance of taking home the gold. \u00a0While the draw did her a favor, placing Kim Clijsters in the other half, it wasn’t perfect: Jelena Jankovic is a relatively difficult first round match. \u00a0With a randomized draw, Serena’s chances are nearly 25%.<\/p>\n
Following the American is her very likely semifinal opponent, Victoria Azarenka, who I give a 18.4% chance of winning it all. \u00a0With an easier draw in the early rounds, Azarenka has a slightly better chance of making it to the semis (49.0% to 45.6%), but is less likely to come out of that showdown triumphant.<\/p>\n
No one else has a double-digit chance of winning the tournament. \u00a0Williams and Azarenka are followed, in order, by Maria Sharapova,\u00a0Agnieszka Radwanska, Petra Kvitova, and Clijsters.<\/p>\n
Below, find the forecast for the entire field. \u00a0To see my current hard-court rankings,\u00a0click here<\/a>, and for some background on the system,\u00a0click here<\/a>. \u00a0I’ve also posted projections for the men’s singles event<\/a>.<\/p>\n Forecasting the women’s singles event isn’t rocket science–it’s just a matter of how much you favor Serena Williams over everyone else. My algorithm gives Serena a 22.7% chance of taking home the gold. \u00a0While the draw did her a favor, placing Kim Clijsters in the other half, it wasn’t perfect: Jelena Jankovic is a relatively … Continue reading 2012 Olympics Women’s Projections<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,81,127],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-833","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forecasting","category-olympics","category-wta"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=833"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/833\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Player R32 R16 QF W \nVictoria Azarenka 92.3% 79.6% 65.3% 18.4% \nIrina-Camelia Begu 7.7% 2.6% 0.8% 0.0% \nMaria Jose Martinez Sanchez 55.6% 10.6% 4.9% 0.1% \nPolona Hercog 44.4% 7.2% 3.0% 0.0% \nAnna Tatishvili 55.5% 12.3% 1.6% 0.0% \nStephanie Vogt 44.5% 8.4% 0.9% 0.0% \nJie Zheng 49.9% 39.5% 11.6% 0.5% \nNadia Petrova 50.1% 39.8% 11.8% 0.5% \n \nPlayer R32 R16 QF W \nSara Errani 62.9% 35.8% 13.2% 0.2% \nVenus Williams 37.1% 16.3% 4.4% 0.0% \nMarina Erakovic 45.6% 20.8% 6.1% 0.1% \nAleksandra Wozniak 54.4% 27.1% 8.6% 0.1% \nGalina Voskoboeva 69.5% 23.6% 13.7% 0.4% \nTimea Babos 30.5% 5.7% 2.2% 0.0% \nPetra Cetkovska 29.5% 17.0% 10.2% 0.3% \nAngelique Kerber 70.5% 53.6% 41.8% 4.9% \n \nPlayer R32 R16 QF W \nSerena Williams 83.9% 73.9% 60.2% 22.7% \nJelena Jankovic 16.1% 9.6% 4.4% 0.2% \nMona Barthel 43.0% 6.3% 2.2% 0.0% \nUrszula Radwanska 57.0% 10.2% 4.2% 0.1% \nFrancesca Schiavone 46.9% 18.8% 4.4% 0.2% \nKlara Zakopalova 53.1% 23.1% 6.0% 0.2% \nSofia Arvidsson 28.1% 11.8% 2.3% 0.0% \nVera Zvonareva 71.9% 46.3% 16.3% 1.6% \n \nPlayer R32 R16 QF W \nNa Li 61.5% 41.9% 23.1% 2.3% \nDaniela Hantuchova 38.5% 22.0% 9.6% 0.5% \nAlize Cornet 26.5% 5.5% 1.2% 0.0% \nTamira Paszek 73.5% 30.6% 13.2% 0.6% \nAnabel Medina Garrigues 34.7% 10.3% 3.4% 0.0% \nYanina Wickmayer 65.3% 27.8% 13.3% 0.7% \nAnne Keothavong 14.5% 3.9% 0.8% 0.0% \nCaroline Wozniacki 85.5% 58.0% 35.3% 4.1% \n \nPlayer R32 R16 QF W \nSamantha Stosur 81.9% 39.2% 23.9% 2.4% \nCarla Suarez Navarro 18.1% 3.3% 0.9% 0.0% \nKim Clijsters 76.2% 48.7% 33.5% 5.6% \nRoberta Vinci 23.8% 8.8% 3.7% 0.1% \nAgnes Szavay 21.8% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% \nElena Baltacha 78.2% 16.0% 2.7% 0.0% \nChristina McHale 43.9% 35.4% 13.9% 0.7% \nAna Ivanovic 56.1% 47.2% 21.3% 1.7% \n \nPlayer R32 R16 QF W \nSabine Lisicki 95.1% 66.0% 31.5% 2.7% \nOns Jabeur 4.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% \nSimona Halep 61.6% 22.8% 7.6% 0.2% \nYaroslava Shvedova 38.4% 10.7% 2.6% 0.0% \nPetra Martic 37.2% 9.2% 3.2% 0.1% \nLucie Safarova 62.8% 21.5% 10.1% 0.5% \nShahar Peer 18.4% 7.7% 2.6% 0.0% \nMaria Sharapova 81.6% 61.6% 42.3% 7.6% \n \nPlayer R32 R16 QF W \nPetra Kvitova 80.7% 61.8% 41.0% 6.5% \nKateryna Bondarenko 19.3% 8.5% 2.8% 0.0% \nSu-Wei Hsieh 42.9% 11.3% 3.8% 0.1% \nShuai Peng 57.1% 18.4% 7.5% 0.2% \nSorana Cirstea 41.5% 16.9% 6.4% 0.2% \nFlavia Pennetta 58.5% 28.8% 13.2% 0.9% \nTsvetana Pironkova 42.8% 21.5% 9.2% 0.5% \nDominika Cibulkova 57.2% 32.8% 16.1% 1.3% \n \nPlayer R32 R16 QF W \nMaria Kirilenko 85.9% 60.6% 23.8% 1.0% \nMariana Duque-Marino 14.1% 3.8% 0.4% 0.0% \nSilvia Soler-Espinosa 45.6% 15.3% 3.2% 0.0% \nHeather Watson 54.4% 20.3% 4.8% 0.0% \nVarvara Lepchenko 73.2% 13.1% 5.0% 0.0% \nVeronica Cepede Royg 26.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% \nJulia Goerges 30.0% 23.0% 14.1% 0.7% \nAgnieszka Radwanska 70.0% 61.9% 48.2% 8.4%<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"