{"id":885,"date":"2012-08-27T11:28:22","date_gmt":"2012-08-27T15:28:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=885"},"modified":"2012-08-27T11:28:22","modified_gmt":"2012-08-27T15:28:22","slug":"2012-us-open-mens-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2012\/08\/27\/2012-us-open-mens-projections\/","title":{"rendered":"2012 US Open Men’s Projections"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here are my pre-tournament odds for the 2012 US Open. \u00a0For some background reading, follow the links for more on my player rating system<\/a>,\u00a0current rankings<\/a>, and more on how I simulate tournaments<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I’ve made one tweak to the algorithm (for men only) since last posting odds. \u00a0As many of you have noticed, I seem to underestimate the chances that the very best players will progress through the draw. \u00a0Some analysis of past results showed that this is correct, so for now, there’s a bit of a band-aid in the system, boosting the odds of the current top ten in a way that reflects how they’ve outperformed my projections in the past.<\/p>\n

Still, Federer and Djokovic both have well under 30% chances of winning the Open, and fall just short of 50% between them. \u00a0My rankings give Djokovic a very slight edge despite Federer’s big season, and the tournament draw, which places Murray in Federer’s half, firmly tilts the scales in the Serb’s favor.<\/p>\n

    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  \n1   Roger Federer           90.6%  84.0%  74.0%    23.2%  \n    Donald Young             9.4%   5.4%   2.5%     0.0%  \n    Maxime Authom           32.9%   2.3%   0.7%     0.0%  \n    Bjorn Phau              67.1%   8.3%   3.7%     0.0%  \n    Albert Ramos            50.1%  15.1%   1.7%     0.0%  \n    Robby Ginepri           49.9%  14.8%   1.7%     0.0%  \n    Rui Machado             15.1%   5.5%   0.4%     0.0%  \n25  Fernando Verdasco       84.9%  64.6%  15.4%     0.3%  \n\n    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  \n23  Mardy Fish              77.1%  50.6%  33.9%     1.3%  \n    Go Soeda                22.9%   8.8%   3.3%     0.0%  \n    Nikolay Davydenko       88.6%  39.4%  21.4%     0.2%  \n    Guido Pella             11.4%   1.2%   0.1%     0.0%  \n    Ivo Karlovic            67.5%  34.2%  14.7%     0.1%  \n    Jimmy Wang              32.5%  10.9%   3.0%     0.0%  \n    Michael Russell         35.7%  16.2%   5.4%     0.0%  \n16  Gilles Simon            64.3%  38.6%  18.1%     0.3%  \n\n    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  \n11  Nicolas Almagro         52.9%  33.6%  20.2%     0.3%  \n    Radek Stepanek          47.1%  28.5%  16.5%     0.2%  \n    Nicolas Mahut           48.7%  18.2%   8.6%     0.0%  \n    Philipp Petzschner      51.3%  19.6%   9.5%     0.0%  \n    Blaz Kavcic             45.9%  15.3%   4.8%     0.0%  \n    Flavio Cipolla          54.1%  19.8%   6.9%     0.0%  \n    Jack Sock               19.8%   7.7%   1.9%     0.0%  \n22  Florian Mayer           80.2%  57.2%  31.6%     0.5%  \n\n    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  \n27  Sam Querrey             64.9%  51.7%  27.6%     0.7%  \n    Yen-Hsun Lu             35.1%  23.9%   9.3%     0.1%  \n    Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo   31.4%   4.8%   0.8%     0.0%  \n    Somdev Devvarman        68.6%  19.6%   5.5%     0.0%  \n    Denis Istomin           62.4%  23.8%  11.8%     0.1%  \n    Jurgen Zopp             37.6%  10.2%   3.8%     0.0%  \n    David Goffin            28.7%  14.8%   6.9%     0.0%  \n6   Tomas Berdych           71.3%  51.3%  34.3%     1.7%  \n\n    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  \n3   Andy Murray             87.6%  76.3%  63.9%    13.7%  \n    Alex Bogomolov Jr.      12.4%   6.3%   2.7%     0.0%  \n    Hiroki Moriya           22.9%   1.8%   0.4%     0.0%  \n    Ivan Dodig              77.1%  15.7%   7.8%     0.1%  \n    Thomaz Bellucci         65.9%  29.0%   6.6%     0.1%  \n    Pablo Andujar           34.1%   9.9%   1.4%     0.0%  \n    Robin Haase             31.9%  15.6%   3.0%     0.0%  \n30  Feliciano Lopez         68.1%  45.5%  14.1%     0.3%  \n\n    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  \n24  Marcel Granollers       63.8%  37.7%  19.2%     0.2%  \n    Denis Kudla             36.2%  16.4%   6.3%     0.0%  \n    Lukas Lacko             46.7%  20.6%   8.4%     0.0%  \n    James Blake             53.3%  25.2%  10.8%     0.1%  \n    Paul-Henri Mathieu      45.6%  14.3%   5.9%     0.0%  \n    Igor Andreev            54.4%  19.2%   8.7%     0.0%  \n    Santiago Giraldo        30.9%  16.5%   7.7%     0.0%  \n15  Milos Raonic            69.1%  50.0%  33.0%     1.0%  \n\n    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  \n12  Marin Cilic             70.6%  56.4%  31.1%     0.9%  \n    Marinko Matosevic       29.4%  18.6%   6.5%     0.0%  \n    Daniel Brands           70.6%  20.5%   6.0%     0.0%  \n    Adrian Ungur            29.4%   4.5%   0.7%     0.0%  \n    Tim Smyczek             53.1%  15.1%   5.8%     0.0%  \n    Bobby Reynolds          46.9%  12.1%   4.3%     0.0%  \n    Guido Andreozzi          5.7%   0.9%   0.1%     0.0%  \n17  Kei Nishikori           94.3%  71.9%  45.6%     1.7%  \n\n    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  \n32  Jeremy Chardy           84.1%  55.5%  23.6%     0.3%  \n    Filippo Volandri        15.9%   4.3%   0.7%     0.0%  \n    Tatsuma Ito             44.6%  16.6%   4.5%     0.0%  \n    Matthew Ebden           55.4%  23.6%   7.3%     0.0%  \n    Martin Klizan           42.3%   8.7%   3.2%     0.0%  \n    Alejandro Falla         57.7%  14.7%   6.4%     0.0%  \n    Karol Beck              16.7%   8.2%   3.2%     0.0%  \n5   Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      83.3%  68.5%  51.2%     3.9%  \n\n    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  \n8   Janko Tipsarevic        81.6%  69.4%  49.7%     1.9%  \n    Guillaume Rufin         18.4%  10.4%   3.8%     0.0%  \n    Brian Baker             40.9%   7.1%   1.8%     0.0%  \n    Jan Hajek               59.1%  13.1%   4.5%     0.0%  \n    Grega Zemlja            55.9%  22.5%   8.1%     0.0%  \n    Ricardo Mello           44.1%  15.5%   4.7%     0.0%  \n    Cedrik-Marcel Stebe     39.2%  21.6%   8.2%     0.0%  \n29  Viktor Troicki          60.8%  40.4%  19.2%     0.2%  \n\n    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  \n19  Philipp Kohlschreiber   54.1%  32.9%  16.2%     0.3%  \n    Michael Llodra          45.9%  26.1%  11.9%     0.2%  \n    Grigor Dimitrov         54.9%  23.7%   9.8%     0.1%  \n    Benoit Paire            45.1%  17.4%   6.4%     0.0%  \n    Mikhail Kukushkin       46.2%  14.5%   6.0%     0.0%  \n    Jarkko Nieminen         53.8%  18.3%   8.2%     0.1%  \n    Xavier Malisse          33.7%  19.2%   9.6%     0.1%  \n9   John Isner              66.3%  48.0%  31.9%     1.6%  \n\n    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  \n13  Richard Gasquet         82.1%  51.9%  27.6%     0.9%  \n    Albert Montanes         17.9%   5.3%   1.3%     0.0%  \n    Jurgen Melzer           82.7%  39.6%  18.1%     0.3%  \n    Bradley Klahn           17.3%   3.1%   0.5%     0.0%  \n    Steve Johnson           35.5%   5.3%   1.1%     0.0%  \n    Rajeev Ram              64.5%  15.4%   4.7%     0.0%  \n    Ernests Gulbis          27.6%  18.4%   7.6%     0.0%  \n21  Tommy Haas              72.4%  60.9%  39.1%     2.5%  \n\n    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  \n28  Mikhail Youzhny         68.2%  49.4%  22.9%     0.6%  \n    Gilles Muller           31.8%  17.4%   5.2%     0.0%  \n    Tobias Kamke            48.9%  15.9%   4.2%     0.0%  \n    Lleyton Hewitt          51.1%  17.2%   4.6%     0.0%  \n    Igor Sijsling           69.4%  17.1%   7.3%     0.0%  \n    Daniel Gimeno-Traver    30.6%   4.0%   1.0%     0.0%  \n    Kevin Anderson          27.6%  18.3%   9.8%     0.1%  \n4   David Ferrer            72.4%  60.6%  44.9%     3.9%  \n\n    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  \n7   Juan Martin Del Potro   70.1%  55.3%  45.2%     4.6%  \n    David Nalbandian        29.9%  18.4%  12.2%     0.3%  \n    Benjamin Becker         48.9%  12.7%   7.0%     0.0%  \n    Ryan Harrison           51.1%  13.6%   7.7%     0.1%  \n    Lukasz Kubot            71.1%  38.8%  11.8%     0.1%  \n    Leonardo Mayer          28.9%  10.0%   1.5%     0.0%  \n    Tommy Robredo           31.0%  11.8%   2.1%     0.0%  \n26  Andreas Seppi           69.0%  39.5%  12.5%     0.1%  \n\n    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  \n20  Andy Roddick            89.4%  57.3%  36.9%     1.1%  \n    Rhyne Williams          10.6%   2.0%   0.4%     0.0%  \n    Carlos Berlocq          23.0%   5.2%   1.5%     0.0%  \n    Bernard Tomic           77.0%  35.5%  19.7%     0.3%  \n    Edouard Roger-Vasselin  44.4%  14.4%   4.3%     0.0%  \n    Fabio Fognini           55.6%  21.1%   7.3%     0.0%  \n    Guillermo Garcia-Lopez  38.8%  22.5%   8.9%     0.0%  \n10  Juan Monaco             61.2%  41.9%  21.0%     0.4%  \n\n    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  \n14  Alexandr Dolgopolov     61.8%  36.8%  19.6%     0.3%  \n    Jesse Levine            38.2%  18.1%   7.7%     0.0%  \n    Marcos Baghdatis        67.8%  34.5%  17.2%     0.2%  \n    Matthias Bachinger      32.2%  10.6%   3.5%     0.0%  \n    Steve Darcis            59.5%  23.6%  10.8%     0.1%  \n    Malek Jaziri            40.5%  12.6%   4.6%     0.0%  \n    Sergiy Stakhovsky       28.8%  14.1%   5.8%     0.0%  \n18  Stanislas Wawrinka      71.2%  49.8%  30.9%     0.8%  \n\n    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  \n31  Julien Benneteau        64.7%  43.7%   9.6%     0.3%  \n    Olivier Rochus          35.3%  18.7%   2.8%     0.0%  \n    Dennis Novikov          34.1%   9.6%   1.0%     0.0%  \n    Jerzy Janowicz          65.9%  28.1%   4.4%     0.0%  \n    Rogerio Dutra Silva     39.5%   2.5%   0.6%     0.0%  \n    Teymuraz Gabashvili     60.5%   5.4%   1.9%     0.0%  \n    Paolo Lorenzi            6.4%   3.6%   1.2%     0.0%  \n2   Novak Djokovic          93.6%  88.6%  78.5%    26.5%<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Here are my pre-tournament odds for the 2012 US Open. \u00a0For some background reading, follow the links for more on my player rating system,\u00a0current rankings, and more on how I simulate tournaments. I’ve made one tweak to the algorithm (for men only) since last posting odds. \u00a0As many of you have noticed, I seem to … Continue reading 2012 US Open Men’s Projections<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,118],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-885","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forecasting","category-u-s-open"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/885","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=885"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/885\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=885"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=885"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=885"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}