64 men are out of the draw, with the usual handful of first-round surprises. Murray’s quarter has gotten even weaker with the early exit of Nicolas Almagro, while Berdych’s 1st-round defeat doesn’t affect Djokovic’s odds much.
Oddly enough, there are more very-lopsided matchups in the 2nd round than there were in the first. Nadal, del Potro, and Djokovic all have a 93% chance of advancing to the third round, while Federer is above 91%. The only two ultra-tight matchups this round are in Melzer’s section, where Kevin Anderson and Juan Ignacio Chela are close to dead even, and Carlos Berlocq is roughly equal with qualifer Lukasz Kubot.
Remarkably, 8 of the 16 qualifiers got through to the second round, while 2 of the 6 lucky losers did so. 3 of the 8 wild cards advanced, though one of those was a foregone conclusion, as two WCs faced off in the first round.
Here are the odds for the rest of the tournament:
Player R32 R16 QF W
(1)Rafael Nadal 93.9% 75.0% 63.5% … 22.0%
Pablo Andujar 6.1% 1.7% 0.4% … 0.0%
(q)Antonio Veic 17.7% 1.2% 0.3% … 0.0%
(28)Nikolay Davydenko 82.3% 22.1% 12.4% … 0.7%
(24)Sam Querrey 41.4% 16.6% 2.9% … 0.1%
Ivan Ljubicic 58.6% 27.4% 6.3% … 0.2%
Xavier Malisse 23.7% 8.6% 1.2% … 0.0%
(16)Fernando Verdasco 76.3% 47.4% 13.0% … 0.9%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(10)Mardy Fish 71.1% 42.1% 17.5% … 0.7%
Robin Haase 28.9% 10.7% 2.6% … 0.0%
Jeremy Chardy 35.0% 13.6% 3.7% … 0.0%
(18)Gilles Simon 65.0% 33.7% 12.8% … 0.4%
(27)Marcos Baghdatis 67.8% 24.1% 12.6% … 0.3%
(q)Leonardo Mayer 32.2% 6.1% 1.9% … 0.0%
(q)Albert Ramos 10.1% 2.8% 0.6% … 0.0%
(5)Robin Soderling 89.9% 67.0% 48.3% … 5.3%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(4)Andy Murray 89.1% 80.3% 64.1% … 8.8%
(LL)Simone Bolelli 10.9% 5.9% 2.1% … 0.0%
(WC)Arnaud Clement 41.3% 4.8% 1.2% … 0.0%
Michael Berrer 58.7% 8.9% 3.1% … 0.0%
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov 66.2% 33.7% 10.3% … 0.2%
Andreas Haider-Maurer 33.8% 12.2% 2.6% … 0.0%
Tobias Kamke 26.6% 9.6% 1.8% … 0.0%
(15)Viktor Troicki 73.4% 44.5% 14.9% … 0.3%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(q)Lukasz Kubot 50.6% 16.0% 4.1% … 0.0%
Carlos Berlocq 49.4% 15.6% 4.0% … 0.0%
(q)Alejandro Falla 24.1% 11.9% 2.8% … 0.0%
(20)Florian Mayer 75.9% 56.6% 27.0% … 0.5%
(32)Kevin Anderson 51.4% 14.4% 6.3% … 0.0%
Juan Ignacio Chela 48.6% 14.2% 6.1% … 0.0%
(q)Lukas Rosol 15.3% 5.8% 2.1% … 0.0%
(8)Jurgen Melzer 84.7% 65.6% 47.6% … 2.5%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(7)David Ferrer 77.4% 53.7% 34.7% … 2.4%
Julien Benneteau 22.6% 9.0% 3.3% … 0.0%
Kei Nishikori 68.8% 29.3% 15.2% … 0.3%
(31)Sergiy Stakhovsky 31.2% 8.0% 2.7% … 0.0%
(q)Steve Darcis 30.0% 6.0% 1.0% … 0.0%
Philipp Petzschner 70.0% 24.1% 7.8% … 0.0%
(WC)Guillaume Rufin 17.0% 6.8% 1.4% … 0.0%
(9)Gael Monfils 83.0% 63.1% 33.9% … 1.4%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka 75.3% 43.0% 15.1% … 0.6%
(q)Thomas Schoorel 24.7% 8.0% 1.4% … 0.0%
Igor Andreev 25.5% 7.3% 1.1% … 0.0%
(17)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 74.5% 41.7% 14.5% … 0.6%
(29)Janko Tipsarevic 68.9% 15.1% 6.5% … 0.1%
Pere Riba 31.1% 4.0% 1.0% … 0.0%
(WC)Maxime Teixeira 8.2% 2.8% 0.6% … 0.0%
(3)Roger Federer 91.8% 78.1% 59.8% … 11.5%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(q)Stephane Robert 32.4% 9.3% 2.4% … 0.0%
Fabio Fognini 67.6% 29.0% 11.7% … 0.0%
(LL)Marsel Ilhan 31.9% 15.3% 5.3% … 0.0%
(30)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 68.1% 46.4% 25.8% … 0.2%
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo 21.4% 5.0% 1.4% … 0.0%
Albert Montanes 78.6% 39.3% 22.0% … 0.2%
Mikhail Kukushkin 31.2% 12.9% 5.3% … 0.0%
(12)Mikhail Youzhny 68.8% 42.8% 26.1% … 0.3%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(13)Richard Gasquet 79.7% 55.2% 11.7% … 1.5%
Marcel Granollers 20.3% 7.8% 0.6% … 0.0%
Andreas Seppi 33.0% 8.6% 0.6% … 0.0%
(23)Thomaz Bellucci 67.0% 28.4% 4.0% … 0.2%
(25)Juan Martin Del Potro 93.4% 35.1% 27.6% … 9.8%
Blaz Kavcic 6.6% 0.3% 0.1% … 0.0%
Victor Hanescu 4.1% 0.4% 0.1% … 0.0%
(2)Novak Djokovic 95.9% 64.2% 55.4% … 27.6%