A couple of days ago, I wrote about how the cluster of players after the big four was itself cementing its hold on the next few ranking spots. Since then, Ferrer, Berdych, and Tsonga have all lost. Oops!
Of that group, only Juan Martin del Potro has survived, and according to my numbers, he poses a serious challenge to Roger Federer tomorrow. But that isn’t the tightest match. That honor goes to Isner/Simon, the most dramatic contrast of playing styles in the quarterfinals. They’ve played once before, at last year’s US Open, when Isner won in four sets, including three tiebreaks. It was even closer than it sounds–Simon won more than half of the points that day.
Here are the full odds for the rest of the tournament:
Player SF F W (1)Novak Djokovic 84.8% 69.0% 44.5% (12)Nicolas Almagro 15.2% 6.7% 1.6% (13)Gilles Simon 48.1% 11.5% 3.4% (11)John Isner 51.9% 12.8% 4.0% (9)Juan Martin Del Potro 44.6% 21.0% 8.9% (3)Roger Federer 55.4% 29.2% 13.9% David Nalbandian 23.3% 6.5% 1.8% (2)Rafael Nadal 76.7% 43.2% 21.9%