2012 US Open Women’s Projections

Here are my pre-tournament odds for the 2012 US Open.  For some background reading, follow the links for more on my player rating systemcurrent rankings, and more on how I simulate tournaments.

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
1   Victoria Azarenka            92.6%  83.5%  70.0%    12.5%  
    Alexandra Panova              7.4%   3.2%   1.0%     0.0%  
    Barbora Zahlavova Strycova   46.8%   6.0%   2.1%     0.0%  
    Kirsten Flipkens             53.2%   7.3%   2.7%     0.0%  
    Su-Wei Hsieh                 56.4%  24.1%   5.4%     0.0%  
    Magdalena Rybarikova         43.6%  16.0%   2.9%     0.0%  
    Virginie Razzano             41.4%  22.8%   5.2%     0.0%  
28  Jie Zheng                    58.6%  37.1%  10.6%     0.2%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
18  Julia Goerges                80.7%  66.0%  37.5%     0.8%  
    Kristyna Pliskova            19.3%  10.1%   2.6%     0.0%  
    Mandy Minella                50.2%  12.0%   3.0%     0.0%  
    Olivia Rogowska              49.8%  11.9%   2.9%     0.0%  
    Stephanie Foretz Gacon       43.0%   7.4%   2.0%     0.0%  
    Anna Tatishvili              57.0%  12.4%   4.0%     0.0%  
    Sorana Cirstea               40.3%  30.8%  16.9%     0.2%  
16  Sabine Lisicki               59.7%  49.4%  31.2%     0.8%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
9   Na Li                        85.7%  75.7%  41.9%     4.6%  
    Heather Watson               14.3%   8.0%   1.6%     0.0%  
    Lesia Tsurenko               45.0%   6.6%   1.0%     0.0%  
    Casey Dellacqua              55.0%   9.7%   1.8%     0.0%  
    Samantha Crawford            14.0%   0.5%   0.0%     0.0%  
    Laura Robson                 86.0%  14.2%   3.6%     0.0%  
    Victoria Duval                0.9%   0.1%   0.0%     0.0%  
23  Kim Clijsters                99.1%  85.3%  50.1%     5.5%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
31  Varvara Lepchenko            66.9%  44.1%  15.7%     0.0%  
    Mathilde Johansson           33.1%  16.1%   3.7%     0.0%  
    Anastasia Rodionova          55.9%  23.4%   5.9%     0.0%  
    Julia Cohen                  44.1%  16.4%   3.5%     0.0%  
    Edina Gallovits-Hall         44.2%   7.1%   2.7%     0.0%  
    Stefanie Voegele             55.8%  10.8%   4.7%     0.0%  
    Petra Martic                 25.5%  17.6%  10.7%     0.0%  
7   Samantha Stosur              74.5%  64.5%  53.0%     2.1%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
3   Maria Sharapova              86.5%  77.7%  67.0%     9.3%  
    Melinda Czink                13.5%   7.9%   4.1%     0.0%  
    Lourdes Dominguez Lino       48.9%   6.9%   3.0%     0.0%  
    Sesil Karatantcheva          51.1%   7.4%   3.3%     0.0%  
    Timea Bacsinszky             70.8%  19.4%   2.5%     0.0%  
    Mallory Burdette             29.2%   3.9%   0.3%     0.0%  
    Lucie Hradecka               38.0%  27.1%   5.7%     0.0%  
27  Anabel Medina Garrigues      62.0%  49.6%  14.1%     0.1%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
19  Nadia Petrova                67.0%  36.1%  19.5%     0.2%  
    Jarmila Gajdosova            33.0%  12.0%   4.4%     0.0%  
    Simona Halep                 49.9%  25.8%  12.8%     0.1%  
    Iveta Benesova               50.1%  26.1%  13.0%     0.1%  
    Alexandra Cadantu            21.3%   4.5%   1.0%     0.0%  
    Aleksandra Wozniak           78.7%  37.7%  18.7%     0.2%  
    Melanie Oudin                30.9%  13.9%   5.3%     0.0%  
15  Lucie Safarova               69.1%  43.9%  25.4%     0.4%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
11  Marion Bartoli               78.4%  46.4%  28.9%     1.2%  
    Jamie Hampton                21.6%   6.4%   2.1%     0.0%  
    Romina Oprandi               24.5%   7.1%   2.3%     0.0%  
    Andrea Petkovic              75.5%  40.2%  23.9%     0.7%  
    Kristina Mladenovic          37.5%   7.2%   1.4%     0.0%  
    Marina Erakovic              62.5%  17.6%   4.9%     0.0%  
    Daniela Hantuchova           48.8%  36.5%  17.6%     0.4%  
17  Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova     51.2%  38.7%  18.9%     0.5%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
25  Yanina Wickmayer             82.8%  64.6%  26.3%     0.6%  
    Julia Glushko                17.2%   7.3%   1.2%     0.0%  
    Pauline Parmentier           45.4%  11.9%   2.1%     0.0%  
    Michaella Krajicek           54.6%  16.2%   3.3%     0.0%  
    Nicole Gibbs                 23.5%   1.7%   0.3%     0.0%  
    Alize Cornet                 76.5%  15.0%   5.8%     0.0%  
    Polona Hercog                15.7%   9.2%   3.9%     0.0%  
5   Petra Kvitova                84.3%  74.0%  57.1%     6.9%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
8   Caroline Wozniacki           85.1%  72.5%  52.5%     4.1%  
    Irina-Camelia Begu           14.9%   7.6%   2.4%     0.0%  
    Silvia Soler-Espinosa        57.0%  12.3%   4.3%     0.0%  
    Alla Kudryavtseva            43.0%   7.6%   2.2%     0.0%  
    Tsvetana Pironkova           68.7%  48.3%  22.8%     0.5%  
    Camila Giorgi                31.3%  16.4%   5.2%     0.0%  
    Ayumi Morita                 37.6%  10.7%   2.6%     0.0%  
26  Monica Niculescu             62.4%  24.5%   8.0%     0.0%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
22  Francesca Schiavone          55.4%  41.9%  18.9%     0.2%  
    Sloane Stephens              44.6%  31.9%  12.9%     0.1%  
    Akgul Amanmuradova           52.9%  14.2%   3.3%     0.0%  
    Tatjana Malek                47.1%  12.0%   2.5%     0.0%  
    Kimiko Date-Krumm            29.2%   5.8%   1.8%     0.0%  
    Sofia Arvidsson              70.8%  25.3%  13.4%     0.1%  
    Elina Svitolina              13.8%   4.5%   1.4%     0.0%  
12  Ana Ivanovic                 86.2%  64.4%  45.8%     1.6%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
14  Maria Kirilenko              67.6%  50.9%  31.6%     0.6%  
    Chanelle Scheepers           32.4%  19.5%   8.6%     0.0%  
    Agnes Szavay                 16.2%   1.4%   0.2%     0.0%  
    Greta Arn                    83.8%  28.2%  11.2%     0.0%  
    Galina Voskoboeva            59.1%  30.2%  15.0%     0.1%  
    Arantxa Rus                  40.9%  17.3%   7.1%     0.0%  
    Andrea Hlavackova            30.0%  11.4%   4.0%     0.0%  
24  Klara Zakopalova             70.0%  41.1%  22.3%     0.2%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
32  Shuai Peng                   57.6%  25.3%   5.2%     0.1%  
    Elena Vesnina                42.4%  15.8%   2.6%     0.0%  
    Ekaterina Makarova           80.0%  52.4%  14.9%     0.8%  
    Eleni Daniilidou             20.0%   6.5%   0.8%     0.0%  
    Mirjana Lucic                35.6%   3.0%   0.8%     0.0%  
    Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez  64.4%   8.7%   3.4%     0.0%  
    Coco Vandeweghe               8.2%   4.1%   1.3%     0.0%  
4   Serena Williams              91.8%  84.2%  70.9%    26.1%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
6   Angelique Kerber             88.6%  65.7%  48.5%     6.0%  
    Anne Keothavong              11.4%   3.3%   1.0%     0.0%  
    Bethanie Mattek-Sands        30.1%   6.3%   2.4%     0.0%  
    Venus Williams               69.9%  24.7%  13.9%     0.4%  
    Johanna Konta                42.7%  10.2%   1.6%     0.0%  
    Timea Babos                  57.3%  16.6%   3.3%     0.0%  
    Olga Govortsova              18.2%   8.4%   1.4%     0.0%  
29  Tamira Paszek                81.8%  64.8%  27.9%     1.1%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
21  Christina McHale             75.7%  61.4%  41.8%     1.0%  
    Kiki Bertens                 24.3%  14.2%   6.0%     0.0%  
    Olga Puchkova                39.7%   7.9%   2.4%     0.0%  
    Irina Falconi                60.3%  16.5%   6.5%     0.0%  
    Vera Dushevina               68.3%  27.2%  10.4%     0.0%  
    Nastassja Burnett            31.7%   7.5%   1.7%     0.0%  
    Garbine Muguruza             36.1%  20.5%   7.9%     0.0%  
10  Sara Errani                  63.9%  44.9%  23.3%     0.2%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
13  Dominika Cibulkova           73.9%  54.9%  35.7%     1.3%  
    Johanna Larsson              26.1%  13.2%   5.2%     0.0%  
    Bojana Jovanovski            44.2%  13.1%   4.8%     0.0%  
    Mona Barthel                 55.8%  18.8%   8.0%     0.0%  
    Vania King                   54.1%  25.1%  11.3%     0.1%  
    Yaroslava Shvedova           45.9%  19.7%   8.2%     0.0%  
    Urszula Radwanska            45.1%  23.7%  10.9%     0.1%  
20  Roberta Vinci                54.9%  31.5%  15.9%     0.2%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
30  Jelena Jankovic              60.9%  40.0%  14.4%     0.2%  
    Kateryna Bondarenko          39.1%  21.7%   6.0%     0.0%  
    Lara Arruabarrena-Vecino     25.7%   5.6%   0.7%     0.0%  
    Shahar Peer                  74.3%  32.6%   9.1%     0.0%  
    Ksenia Pervak                47.1%  10.4%   4.7%     0.0%  
    Carla Suarez Navarro         52.9%  12.6%   6.1%     0.0%  
    Nina Bratchikova             11.3%   4.2%   1.4%     0.0%  
2   Agnieszka Radwanska          88.7%  72.7%  57.6%     6.7%

4 thoughts on “2012 US Open Women’s Projections”

  1. Jeff – not to add to your workload, but is there any way of creating and posting a sortable list by different variables? I’m imagining some kind of WordPress plugin for sorting tables using Java and/or Ajax that maybe somebody already built, ha ha.

    What I’m wanting to be able to do is sort by the last column, W, so I can see at a glance where the top 10 fall. I guess I could do this easily enough if I just copied and pasted into Excel – often a pain, but usually doable – or if I took the time to cook up a simple Python script to handle the paste-as-text instead of Excel. Unfortunately, since I don’t script much any more, and Python syntax has moved on in some odd ways since I used to use it regularly, “cooking up a simple Python script” would take a bunch of hours. Sigh – oh well, just a wish but not important. Thanks for the forecasts.

    1. That would be nice. It’s on my list to develop an easier way to make sortable tables (like the player pages on tennisabstract) on the fly, but my list is long…

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