The Men Are Old, and The Best Men Are Even Older

It’s been one of the main talking points in men’s tennis for years now: The sport is getting older. Every year, a bigger slice of Grand Slam draws are taken up by thirty-somethings, and now, the entire big four has entered their fourth decades.

I don’t want to belabor the point. But my interest was piqued by an observation from commentator Chris Fowler this week:

When we talk about the sport getting older, this is what we really mean — the best guys are getting up in years.

When we calculate the average age of a draw, or the number of 30-somethings, we weight every player equally. Democratic as it is, it gives most of the weight to guys who are looking for flights home before middle Sunday. As substantial as the overall age shift has been over the last decade, the shift at the top of the game has been even more dramatic.

To quantify the shift, I calculated what I’ll call the “projected winner age” (PWA) of every Wimbledon men’s field from 1991 to 2017. This captures in one number the notion that Fowler is hinting at. We take a weighted average of all 128 men in the main draw, weighted by their chances of winning the tournament, as determined by grass-court Elos at the start of the event.

For example, last year’s Wimbledon men’s draw had an average age of 28.5 years, but a projected winner age of 30.0. We don’t yet know the exact average age of this year’s draw (it looks to be about the same, maybe a tiny bit younger), but we can already say that the PWA is 31.4.

An observer a decade ago would’ve thought such a number was insane. Here are the average ages and PWAs for the last 27 Wimbledons men’s events:

As recently as 2011, there wasn’t much difference between average age and PWA. Until 2015, the difference had never been greater than two years. Now, the difference is almost three years, and the point of comparison–average age–is nearly its own all-time high.

A lot of this, of course, is thanks to the big four. Even as the aging curve has shifted, allowing for late bloomers such as Stan Wawrinka, the biggest stars of the late ’00s–Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal–have declined even less than the revised aging curve would imply. In a sport hungry for new winners, we might have to settle for winners who are newly in their 30s.