Four years ago, when I started work on the Tennis 128, Carlos Alcaraz was 18 years old. He was ranked 32nd on the ATP computer. Now, six(!) major titles later, I’m officially adding him to my pantheon of greats.
The algorithm I devised for the Tennis 128 was designed to measure entire careers, so it takes a herculean effort someone so young to make the cut. Since a 22-year-old can’t yet amass impressive career stats, the key is to achieve a historically great peak. That was Jannik Sinner’s path onto the list last year. Alcaraz climbed nearly as high, flirting with the 2300-Elo threshold after his US Open title this year.
With that newly-established level and one more season at the top of the game, Alcaraz debuts on the list at #83, displacing a couple of Australians, Jack Crawford and Lleyton Hewitt.
(As in the past, I’m not going to kick anybody out, so the Tennis “128” is up to 132 members.)
The Spaniard is the only big mover on the list this time around. The algorithm has three components: peak Elo, year-end Elo for a player’s five best seasons, and year-end Elo for the entirety of his or her career. Players can improve their lot by posting an additional great season, as Sinner did. But without bumping their peak Elo, there’s only so much one can do in a single season. In my view, that’s how it should be. This is, after all, a ranking of entire careers.
Three other young, active greats had already muscled their way onto the list, and all three saw modest gains in 2025:
- Aryna Sabalenka won another major–among many other titles. Her run to the final in Riyadh even nudged her Elo up to a new career peak, if only slightly. She slides just past another big hitter, Petra Kvitova, to a new place at #105.
- Jannik Sinner matched Alcaraz blow for blow, often (almost) literally. While he didn’t improve on his peak Elo, he finished the year atop the list with another near-2300 showing. He moves up to #66.
- Iga Swiatek is no longer as imperious as she was at her best. But she remains one of the top two players in the game. She gains two places to #91.
2026 might be the first year without any new additions to the list. Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev have hovered within striking distance for a few years now, but without a significant step forward–say, a 50-point increase on their peak Elo ratings–they will likely remain on the outside looking in. No other active men are close.
Coco Gauff is probably the most likely next debutante, but she has even more ground to cover. Elo doesn’t rate the current era very highly. While the Tennis 128 does apply some modest era adjustments, a string of years at number three right now isn’t going to do the job. For Gauff to join the club twelve months from now, she’ll probably need a multi-slam, year-end-number-one season.
You can see the entire, up-to-date list here.
Happy new year!
What’s about Djokovic position?? Did he moves to #2 behind Graf??
This article and the one that introduced the tennis 128 list mention these two points:
“But without bumping their peak Elo, there’s only so much one can do in a single season.”
“I’m interested in how good players were at their best, not whether they stuck around for too many seasons at the end”
Djokovic finished last year (2025) with an elo of 2090.
His peak elo sits at 2,470 (back in 2016)
So, seeing that the list is primarily based on elo ratings, I assume we might not see any movement for Djokovic. He will probably stay at #4.
Maybe if he manages to win a 25 grand slam title it could move him up.🤷🏽♂️ But I don’t know how much weight the total titles and total slams have in the tennis 128 list.
2025 didn’t change anything for him.
Interesting to see how far Alcaraz’s new peak Elo contributed to this jump up the list. I was wondering how much do big titles count towards the ranking compared to Elo rating? Since some multiple slam champions are off the list (admittedly, usually the ones not known for consistent dominance over the field).
titles don’t count at all, except in the sense that they involve winning lots of matches, which also boost elo rating.
Hi Jeff
I enjoy reading your blog and look forward to more articles in 2026. You mentioned that “Elo doesn’t rate the current era very highly”. Why is that? I also wasn’t sure if the comment was about men’s and women’s tennis or specific to women.
It’s specific to women. Elo (or any other results-based system) can’t compare distant years to each other, but it can compare adjacent years. Essentially, looking at match results will tell you whether 1982 was a stronger year than 1981, whether 2023 was stronger than 2022, etc, and by how much. Combine all those single-year increments, and you have an idea of the general trend. That’s how you end with some eras where the #1 has an Elo rating of 2500 (Steffi), and others where it’s more like 2200 (now).
Hi Jeff,
Thank you for all the amazing work and insights ! According to your Elo-rating & al, it seems that the 3-month ban really hurt Sinner’s standing as he still has been the most consistent player in 2025 according to the Elo and charting.
But Alcaraz has been more consistent than ever and is the nemesis for the time being. I am still curious to know what would have been the ELO with only the outcome of the French Open final modified to Sinner’s. I am quite sure, it would have resulted in a new ELO-peak for Sinner.
I don’t know the exact number, but you are probably right. To be clear, the ban hurt Sinner’s rating in the short term, but didn’t have much effect in the long-term — he’s very close to where he was 12 months ago, which seems about right to me.
The couple next week will be crucial for Sinner’s standing in the ranking : if he wins the AO, it is likely that he will reach a new ELO peak, and then, he might have more room to even increase it further with the US swing.
With an ELO of 2350ish, it will begin to be very high, even though the only real path to increase it is to beat Alcaraz (the era is not so highly rated in the men’s side, the other players are not in a good trend at the moment).
So Carlos is now in the 128 club!!
It was only a matter of time, but must be said, statistics love Sinner’s consistency. Just look at the AI-generated data analysis, and the Italian is omnipresent, but not the Spaniard. The future of tennis analysis lies in AI, but current models are still imperfect (just look at how poorly measure drop shots, for example).
We’ve entered a period of two-player dominance. Jeff, what would happen if one of them gets injured and the other has a super-dominant season? How would the Elo rating drop without one of them? I imagine the rating would be affected by a handicap…
pretty much impossible to predict how Elo would change by tweaking one variable. It depends too much on what else happens, like if somebody else (especially a young player like Fonseca) took a big step forward.
Hi Jeff
Please provide the top 10 best peak Elo rating by female tennis player in open era?? After 2 years of publishing the list did position in top 10 remains the same or there is a change in position?