Italian translation at settesei.it
With a three-set win today over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Danielle Collins became the first woman into the 2019 Australian Open semi-finals. She was already the biggest surprise of the eight quarter-finalists. A week ago, most pundits (myself included) would’ve picked dozens of players more likely to find themselves in the final four.
Collins, a 25-year-old American, has doubled her grand slam match experience at a single tournament. She first made a name for herself as a stellar collegiate player, winning national titles in 2014 and 2016, which earned her wild cards into her first two majors. While she gave Simona Halep a scare by taking a set in their 2014 US Open encounter, no wins resulted from either of the wild cards. After her run to the Miami semi-finals last year, she earned her way into three more slams, but she drew seeds at all three and had to settle for first-round loser’s checks. All told, Collins’s experience at majors amounted to five main draws, five first-round losses, and a couple of wins in qualifying.
There’s simply no precedent for what she has done in Melbourne. She opened by narrowly upsetting 14th seed Julia Goerges, then won six sets in a row to knock out Sachia Vickery, 19th seed Caroline Garcia, and 2nd seed Angelique Kerber, needing barely one hour per match. Today’s contest took a bit longer, but the end result was the same: a 2-6 7-5 6-1 victory over Pavlyuchenkova, who was playing in her fifth major quarter-final.
A berth in a major semi-final with no previous grand slam match wins: that’s something worth a database query. Since 1980, only three other women have done the same: Monica Seles at the 1989 French Open, Jennifer Capriati at the 1990 French, and Alexandra Stevenson in 1999 at Wimbledon. Collins doesn’t exactly fit in with that trio: Seles and Capriati were playing their first majors, and neither had reached their 16th birthdays. Stevenson was 18 years old, playing only her third slam main draw. The closest comp for Collins is found in the men’s game, where 25-year-old Marco Cecchinato reached the semis at Roland Garros last year despite recording no wins in his previous attempts at majors.
Reaching the final four in one’s sixth slam isn’t as rare. 12 different women have done so, including Seles, Capriati, and Stevenson, along with Venus Williams and Eugenie Bouchard. But again, Collins’s time at the University of Virginia sets her apart from this group: all but one were teenagers, and the only other exception, Clarisa Fernandez, was 20 years old when she reached the 2002 Roland Garros semi-final. The least experienced 25-year-old semi-finalist was Fabiola Zuluaga, who made it to the 2004 Australian Open semis in her 17th major, with 22 match wins in her first 16 tries.
History offers few precedents for Collins. While male collegiates such as Kevin Anderson and John Isner have established themselves in the top ten and gone deep at majors, the women’s game has always skewed younger. Yes, the days of 15-year-old sensations like Capriati and Seles are behind us, but the most recent major title went to 20-year-old Naomi Osaka, and the same year that Collins won her first national title for Virginia, Bouchard–who is two months younger than the American–reached the Wimbledon final. The greatest success story in women’s collegiate tennis belongs to Lisa Raymond, who is best known for her exploits on the doubles court.
Perhaps Collins’s success will change that, much as Anderson–whose first major semi-final came at age 31, in his 34th slam–has shown that college can fit in the plans of a would-be ATP star. With 20% of the WTA top 100 in their thirties, there’s more for a late starter to look forward to than ever before. It’s unreasonable to expect that Collins will be a regular feature at the tail end of grand slams, but it’s possible she’ll outdo Raymond, who peaked at 15th in the singles rankings. Next time we see her in the second week of a major, we won’t be so surprised.