Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: The fast-rising Russian extends his array of win streaks, Sabalenka and Mertens win a farewell title, and Naomi Osaka looks ahead to yet another match against a player ranked outside of the top ten.
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The first number is 173,598, the most recent census count of the Greek Australian population in Melbourne. At times during the men’s semi-final today between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev, it sounded like all of them were right there in Rod Laver Arena. Tsitsipas, whose heroics brought him back from a two-set deficit to Rafael Nadal in the quarters, couldn’t make it happen this time for the home-away-from-home crowd. Medvedev, the 25-year-old Russian fourth seed, advanced in straight sets, hitting more than twice as many winners as unforced errors, winning 50 of 57 first-serve points, and extending his increasingly impressive array of streaks. It’s 20 match victories in a row, and 12 straight against the top ten. Medvedev has shown that he can thrive against a hostile crowd, whether it’s Greeks in Australia or disapproving New Yorkers. He’ll face another crowd favorite on Sunday, when he tries to beat eight-time Australian Open champ Novak Djokovic for the fourth time in eight career meetings.
Our second number is 5. Five is the number of doubles titles won in the last two years by the team of Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens, who won their second major today against the third seeded Czech team of Katerina Siniakova and Barbora Krejcikova. The title moves Sabalenka and Mertens into the top two spots on the doubles ranking table, but it is a bit bittersweet for fans of the power-hitting duo. Sabalenka, in particular, is quickly becoming one of the best singles players in the game, a top-tenner who ranks third on the Tennis Abstract Elo list. They’ll shift their focus to singles and no longer pair up at slams. At their best, the now-top-ranked team is unstoppable, with straight set wins in their last three rounds in Melbourne, including the loss of just five games in the final. Two of their titles together came at the Sunshine double of Indian Wells and Miami in 2019, tournaments that often coax occasional doubles players to compete in multiple events. Fingers crossed that, whenever the American tournaments are next able to be staged, Sabalenka and Mertens will attempt to defend their crowns.
Today’s third and final number is 24, the number of consecutive matches Naomi Osaka has played without facing a top-ten opponent. Tomorrow’s final against 24th-ranked Jennifer Brady will make it 25, and in this span, which dates back to early January of last year, she has also withdrawn from two matches against lower-ranked players. This isn’t a knock on the Japanese star—aside from the walkovers, she has lost only twice, and she hasn’t entered any second-tier events. It’s just the way the draws have shaken out. It is also a reminder that the official rankings, calculated using a modified formula during the pandemic, are slower than usual to catch up with reality. Osaka’s last six months include Thursday’s win versus Serena Williams and two over Victoria Azarenka, and even if Brady wins the Melbourne title, she will still be stuck at number 12 in the rankings. Remarkably, Osaka’s string of sub-top-ten opponents is far from the record—in 2018, Caroline Wozniacki played 37 matches in a row against opponents ranked 11 and below, and excluding one retirement, you have to go back to 2019 to find Simona Halep’s last match against a fellow top-tenner. Fortunately the women’s tour is deep enough that we’ve gotten plenty of great matches anyway.