Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Simona Halep is one of the many singles stars who are doubling up in Miami this year, Marton Fucsovics is a race-to-Turin top tenner flying under the radar, and it was a rough opening day for American women yesterday.
Scroll down for a transcript.
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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode
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Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 9, the number of top-16 singles seeds in the Miami Open women’s draw who are also playing doubles. The choice to go double-duty started at the top, with number one seed Ashleigh Barty partnering with 13th seed Jennifer Brady. The Australian is an outstanding doubles player, with a grand slam title to her name, but other teams have more of an exhibition feel. At the top of that list is singles #3 seed Simona Halep, who is paired with Angelique Kerber. If the draw was rigged, popcorn salesman were probably behind any malfeasance—Halep and Kerber play their opening-round against top-ranked doubles team Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens, themselves both top-16 seeds in singles. Another of the many teams worth watching are Iga Swiatek and doubles stalwart Bethanie Mattek Sands, who open against the equally head-scratching duo of Monica Niculescu and Anna Blinkova. Women doubles rarely gets the attention it deserves, so even though most of the singles stars will be gone after a round or two, perhaps they’ll redirect a few fans toward an underrated event.
Our second number is 555, the number of ATP Race points amassed so far this year by Marton Fucsovics. The 29-year-old is enjoying a breakthrough season, with a point total good enough for 7th place on the in-season ranking list. My single-season Elo measure, called yElo, bumps Fucsovics up even further, to the 5th position. He’s 14 and 4 on the year, including wins over Stan Wawrinka in Australia and Borna Coric earlier this month in Rotterdam, where he qualified and reached the final. The Hungarian’s only problem this year is Andrey Rublev, who simply won’t get out of the way. Rublev was the opponent who finally stopped him in Rotterdam, and then they drew each other in the Doha quarterfinals the following week. Fucsovics withdrew, only to come back in Dubai the next week and find Rublev again in the round of eight. In Miami, he is seeded 29th and gets a first-round bye, after which he plays the winner of a match between qualifiers. Assuming he gets through that, you get three guesses to predict the top five seed likely to await him in the third round. Your first two guesses don’t count—of course, it’s Andrey Rublev.
Today’s third and final number is 6, the number of American women who lost in main draw opening round play in Miami yesterday. The only winner representing the home country was Shelby Rogers, who faced fellow local Madison Brengle. Two of the losers were wild cards Robin Montgomery and Katrina Scott, of whom expectations were modest, but the other early exiters had betters shots to stick around. Montgomery was the only American loser to win a set, while Venus Williams gave the crowd a bit of excitement, pushing Zarina Diyas to a 22-point tiebreak before losing in straights. For all of the opening-day carnage, there are still plenty of locals to root for. 18 women in the WTA top 100 have USA next to their names, and there are 12 home hopes left in the Miami draw, starting with 4th seed Sofia Kenin. A late addition to the group was Hailey Baptiste, a 19-year-old who was the only American woman to come through qualifying. Baptiste will play fellow qualifier Kristina Kucova, and if she wins, she gets a second-round meeting with top seed Ashleigh Barty.
