Category: Davis Cup

Thursday Topspin: Wins for 18-year-olds

We’ll resume the Davis Cup previews in a bit, but first, I want to send out a salute to the guy who found this site yesterday by googling “Arnaud Clement v Stefan Seifert preview.”  I knew you were out there, crazy men’s tennis fans, and I’m glad you found me.

As it happened, Seifert (remember, ranked outside of the top thousand two weeks ago) defeated Clement in straight sets.  He’ll face Stephane Robert today.

In Dallas: It continues to be a successful week for American youngsters.  Yesterday, Jack Sock had an easy time getting past Bjorn Phau, a match I had expected to go the almost exact opposite way.  Sock will advance to the quarterfinals and next face Matthew Ebden, and you have to figure the American has a good shot at going even further.

Denis Kudla also has a chance to make further inroads, matching up with Australian Greg Jones later today.

Mighty Milos: Carl Bialik in the Wall Street Journal writes about Milos Raonic‘s epic serving of late–he’s on a pace to take down the all-time single-season ace record, among other things.

In light of my discussion yesterday of the career trajectory of tall, big-serving players, one wonders just how much farther Raonic can go.  Certainly he hasn’t reached his peak yet, but is he a top-10 player?  Personally, I think he has a huge amount of development left.  By the time he’s done, he’ll be less of a one-trick serving pony and more like Andy Roddick in his prime, a huge server with a game that (mostly) backs it up.

Speaking of Milos: Raonic is one of the five men awarded a wild card into the main draw at Indian Wells.  With his ranking in the 30’s, he certainly deserves to be there, but the entry list was determined before he started reeling off match wins, so he just missed the initial cut.

Other WC’s go to James Blake (of course), Ryan Harrison (ditto), Bernard Tomic, and Kei Nishikori.  We’ll have to see about Tomic’s status, as he retired from yesterday’s singles match in Dallas.

Futures update: Here’s one player to watch who isn’t in the draw in Dallas: Australian 18-year-old Benjamin Mitchell.  Mitchell has strung together some success of late, reaching the final of Australia F13 in November, then winning five matches in January to qualify for and reach the quarters of the Burnie challenger before losing to Tomic.  He’s among the top 10 ranked players in the world aged 18 or younger.

This week, he’s the 5th seed at Australia F2 and has had two easy matches to reach another quarterfinal.

Oh, and the tournament, in Berri, Australia, is played on grass.

Davis Cup update: Before we preview two more ties, a quick update: The Serbia-India tie has gone from “lopsided but still mildly interesting” to “why bother?”  Novak Djokovic is out, as are Leander Paes and Mahesh Bhupathi.  I guess the one positive is that Rohan Bopanna will get to play doubles.

Preview: Croatia vs. Germany: This one should be fun.  The Croats have Marin Cilic, who matches up favorably with both Phillip Kohlschreiber and Florian Mayer, the German singles players.  But Kohlschreiber and Mayer both outrank the other Croatian singles nominee, Ivan Dodig, and the German doubles team of Phillipp Petzschner and Christopher Kas looks better than any pairing the Croats can come up with.

And while Cilic is the superior player, he’s hardly known for his steel under pressure.  Dodig, while new to the top 100, won a title last month and played well in Delray Beach.  I’m going to predict Croatia, 3-2, but I can imagine it going as far as 4-1 in either direction.

Austria vs. France: Like Robin Soderling for Sweden, Jurgen Melzer needs to have a big weekend if Austria is to get out of the first round.  France is weakened by injury, missing Gael Monfils, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Richard Gasquet, but they still sport one of the best Davis Cup squads in the world.

Melzer is slated to play all three days, and he’ll have to win every match he plays.  The singles are within reach, as he’s scheduled to match up with Gilles Simon and Jeremy Chardy.  The doubles could be tougher, and the French are sending out a team of Julien Benneteau and Michael Llodra.

It’s a tall order for any player, and Melzer hasn’t had any major recent success since October, when he beat Rafael Nadal and won Vienna in successive weeks.  I’ll predict France, 3-2.

See you tomorrow!

Wednesday Topspin: Young Americans

Before we continue with our Davis Cup preview, let’s start with the young Americans in Dallas.

Harrison and Kudla: Nothing came easy, but it has been a good tournament so far for the local teens.  Yesterday afternoon, Denis Kudla beat Izak van der Merwe, looking strong as he served out the third set.  That’s a big result for someone outside the top 400.  In fact, it’s Kudla first match win at the challenger level.

After one set, it didn’t look nearly as rosy for Ryan Harrison.  Robert Kendrick was serving well, crushing forehands all over the court.  Ultimately, Ryan wore him down, serving a little better and playing more consistently while Kendrick did the opposite.  Harrison took the match in a lopsided (7-1) third-set tiebreak.

Kendrick is always frustrating to watch–such big shots, so little to show for it.  He can play a string of points that makes you wonder why he never cracked the top 20, and then, as we saw last night, he starts playing (and acting) like a frustrated rookie.  With a bit of recent success and a strong history in Dallas, I thought he would overcome Harrison.

American tennis: What follows is all speculation.  I’d love to be able to prove it, but I’m not sure how.

There’s been a lot of hand-wringing of late about the dearth of strong young American tennis players–with the exception of Harrison, of course.  John Isner and Sam Querrey are solid, but it’s tough to see them making it much further than they have already.  Yet, there always seem to be young Americans have some success; we just haven’t seen anyone take it to the top 10 since Andy Roddick and James Blake.

Here’s my theory.  The rigid structure of youth tennis in the U.S. allows fast-developing (often tall, big-serving) players to win early, which in turn encourages them to keep playing, and attracts the attention of coaches.  That’s how you have Querrey.  That’s how Isner got good in a relatively short period of time.  You see the same thing in Australia, I think, with the likes of Carsten Ball, Chris Guccione, and Greg Jones.

The problem isn’t attracting kids to tennis–it’s keeping them.  As a 13-year-old, I lost my share of matches to guys who were way bigger than I was, and would win service games at love while I waved hopelessly at their serves.  The big guys have skills that will lead to success in juniors, in college, and for some, a degree of success in the pros, but will only take them so far.

What I will figure out a way to study is this: What are the career patterns of very tall (and/or big-serving) players?  It seems that they rise fast, stagnate, and retire young.  A generation ago, someone like Mark Philippoussis could live on only a serve; now, the return game has been forced to improve, meaning that the big servers themselves have to improve the rest of their game.  If my theory about the career patterns of this sort of player is true, American tennis is a breeding ground for kids who will be impressive 21-year-olds and fizzle early.

That’s what’s gratifying about watching the 6’0″ Harrison and the 5’11” Kudla win matches–they don’t fit that mold.

Back to Davis Cup!

Davis Cup: Czech Republic vs. Kazakhstan: When Kazakhstan is in the world group, you know things have changed.  They dominated a Federer-less Swiss team last fall, and they might get lucky again this weekend.

The Czech team is already without Radek Stepanek, and you have to wonder about the availability of Tomas Berdych, who was forced to retire in the semifinals of Dubai.  Without Stepanek, it’s possible Kazakhstan could beat a Czech team with Berdych.

The Kazakhs feature Andrey Goloubev and Mikhail Kukushkin, both 21-year-olds on the way up.  Both have proven they will show up in Davis Cup play, having defeated Stanislas Wawrinka in their last tie.  There’s no obvious doubles team, but neither does the Czech team have one.

Perhaps more than any other tie this weekend, this contest rests in the hands of one player: Berdych.  If he’s healthy, he will probably be asked to play two singles matches and a doubles match.  If he does, the Czechs will probably win.  If he only plays his two singles matches, that leaves the door open for Kazakhstan; if he can’t play two singles matches, then we can look forward to the unlikely event of Kazakhstan in the world group quarterfinals.

My prediction: Czech Republic, 3-2.

Belgium vs. Spain: This reminds me of those matches I mentioned earlier, when I was 13, losing comprehensively to kids who were six inches taller than I was.  I can identify with the Belgians.

Rafael Nadal playing Davis Cup is good for Spain and good for the sport.  But this week, it’s just rubbing salt in the wound.  Spain boasts three players in the top 10, plus a very good singles and doubles player in Feliciano Lopez.  Belgium has a 30-year-old Xavier Malisse.

You’ll be shocked to find that I predict: Spain, 5-0.

Serbia update: Apparently, Novak Djokovic may not play this weekend.  That has to give India a bit of hope, but Serbia’s other singles players will still prove too strong.

Tomorrow, we’ll take a look at the remaining European ties and keep tabs on the challenger action.  See you then!

Tuesday Topspin: Davis Cup and Dallas

The first round of the 2011 Davis Cup begins Friday.  This week, I’ll be previewing the eight Davis Cup World Group ties.  Let’s start at the top of the draw:

Serbia vs. India: If it were the Davis Cup of doubles, India would be in good shape.  As it is, the defending champions from Serbia are good enough to beat anybody, let alone a side with only one singles player in the top 500.

India does boast one of the best doubles teams in Davis Cup play, with Leander Paes and Mahesh Bhupathi.  That’s one rubber.  If Somdev Devvarman has a great day, he might be able to beat Janko Tipsarevic or Viktor Troicki.  That’s two rubbers–maybe.  No matter how you slice it, you’re not going to come up with any more.

Novak Djokovic, fresh off another victory in Dubai, is just about unbeatable on hard courts, and no one’s going to challenge that this weekend.  My not-very bold prediction: Serbia wins, 4-1.

Russia vs. Sweden: This one is a little more interesting.  I wrote last week about Russia’s solid Davis Cup team a few years down the road, but this year things don’t look so rosy.  The Russian side is relatively deep, but with Nikolay Davydenko and Mikhail Youhzny sitting it out, they don’t have a singles player currently inside the top 75.  Igor Andreev has had some doubles success, but the Russians are lacking in doubles expertise, as well.

Sweden is the exact opposite.  The presence of Robin Soderling would make any squad a fearsome one, but beyond that, you get the impression that they didn’t quite know how to find three more players.  Among those three are two doubles specialists, Simon Aspelin and Robert Lindstedt.

It all pivots on the doubles match.  Soderling gives the Swedes two easy victories.  Joachim Johansson, at this point in his career, will probably not beat any of the Russians in a singles match.  That leaves Aspelin/Lindstedt against Andreev and maybe Igor Kunitsyn.  It could go either way, but I’ll pick Sweden, 3-2.

Challengers: There’s a free live stream for the Dallas challenger this week, which gave me the opportunity to watch some truly mediocre tennis yesterday.  I missed the one notable result from yesterday’s action, in which American 18-year-old Jack Sock took down Rik De Voest, a veteran South African currently ranked 160th.  Straight sets, no less.

If you’re a fan of American tennis, today’s card is for you.  Five of the seven singles matches scheduled are between two U.S. players, including the main event: #1 seed Robert Kendrick against super-teenager Ryan Harrison.  Also of interest is the second match, pitting South African Izak van der Merwe against another American teen, Denis Kudla.

Only two other challenger results worth mentioning.  Grigor Dimitrov had an easy time advancing over David Guez to the second round in Cherbourg, while in Salinas, Horacio Zeballos needed a third-set tiebreak to overcome American wildcard Eric Nunez.

See you tomorrow!

Saturday Topspin: Roger, Novak, and Evgeny

The rematch: Once again, it’s Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic in a big match.  Last time they played, of course, was in Melbourne, when Djokovic scored a big win in straight sets.  The previous three matches, however, went Federer’s way.

I’ve watched pieces of all of Roger’s matches this week, and it’s amazing how much he pushes opponents around the court.  The commentators talked continuously about how far back Richard Gasquet was playing.  Djokovic (along with Juan Martin Del Potro) is one of the few guys with the guts and the skill to hold his ground near the baseline.

Neither player has had a particularly challenging road to the final.  Federer hasn’t played a seeded opponent, and the second set against Gasquet yesterday was the first time this week he was pushed to 5-5.  (In fact, Gasquet served for the second set at 5-4.)  Djokovic faced tough matches against Feliciano Lopez and Tomas Berdych, but the latter match was ultimately decided by injury.

Today, I’m betting on Federer.

Czech out: Another day, another Davis Cup withdrawal.  The Czech team is in trouble, as Radek Stepanek is out with the flu.  Berdych’s status must be in doubt, as well, after retiring from yesterday’s match in Dubai.

The 3rd-ranked nation suddenly looks very weak; if Berdych can’t play, their top singles player is 102nd-ranked Jan Hajek.

More young Russians: Yesterday I mentioned the strong future of Russian men’s tennis, with two players under 21 inside the top 250.  Just missing that cut was another up-and-comer, Evgeny Donskoy.  Currently ranked #259, he won’t turn 21 until May.

And he’s about to get a boost in the rankings.  He had to play qualifying at the Casablanca challenger, and has now won seven matches there.  He’s set to face Alessio Di Mauro in the final.  If he loses, he’ll be up around #225; if he wins, he’ll just miss the top 200.

Oddly enough, while Donskoy was one of the youngest players in the Casablanca draw, Di Mauro was the oldest, at age 33.

Di Mauro is also a clay specialist; he only played 1 of his 46 matches last year on a hard court.  Donskoy had more success on clay last year, as well.  I’m working on surface-specific rankings, and for 2010, I have Di Mauro as #133 on clay and Donskoy as #139.

Acupulco: Can David Ferrer stop Nicholas Almagro?  Ferrer dropped the first set to Alexander Dolgopolov last night, but came charging back, ultimately winning 5-7 6-1 6-1.  Almagro played a tight contest with Thomaz Bellucci, triumphing in straight sets for his 13th straight victory.  He’ll try to make it three straight titles tonight.

Delray Beach: For all of the withdrawals and upsets in Florida this week, everything went according to plan in yesterday’s quarterfinals.  Today, Kei Nishikori will face Janko Tipsarevic, while Mardy Fish will play Del Potro.  The latter match should another interesting test for the Argentine, as Fish plays a style of game that he hasn’t seen for a while.

Giant-killers: The doubles team of Feliciano Lopez and Jeremy Chardy beat yet another top seed yesterday, eking by Michael Llodra and Nenad Zemonjic 10-8 in a super-tiebreak.  To get to the finals, they had to win three matches, two against the 2nd and 3rd seeds, the third against Bopanna/Qureshi.

They’ve just taken the first set from the similarly-unheralded team of Mikhail Youhzny and Sergiy Stakhovsky.

See you tomorrow!

Friday Topspin: Resurgence, Opportunity, and Russia

The big man is back: Juan Martin Del Potro reached the semifinals in his last two tournaments, but it took a 6-1 6-1 drubbing of Teymuraz Gabashvili to convince me that he is back in form.  I didn’t expect the Russian to win, or even to take Del Potro to a third set, but if the Argentine is winning 69% of points against a credible opponent, that tells me a return to the top ten is just a matter of time.

It was a surprisingly quick day in Delray Beach, as none of the four second-round matches went to a third set–and no set even went as far as 5-5!  Mardy Fish is easily through to a quarterfinal matchup with Colombian lefty Alejandro Falla.

While the finalist from the bottom half looks like it will be either Del Potro or Fish, the top half of the draw offers an opportunity to a handful of remaining players.  Ivan Dodig will have to get past Janko Tipsarevic to stay alive; in the other quarter, Ryan Sweeting takes on Kei Nishikori.  It’s a big chance for guys whose original draw put them in the same half as Andy Roddick, Sam Querrey, and James Blake.

Youhzny out of Davis Cup: Mikhail Youhzny has announced that he’s no longer playing Davis Cup.  After what feels like a generation of Russia near the top of the Davis Cup rankings, the guard is changing.  Nikolay Davydenko is still a dangerous player, but now a less consistent one.  The next Russians in the rankings are Gabashvili, Igor Andreev, and Igor Kunitsyn.  Not exactly the fearsome team Russia could put on the court five years ago.

Looking forward a few years, there is something to look forward to in Russian tennis.  Two of the most promising youngsters in the game, Andrey Kuznetsov and Alexander Lobkov, are potential team members in another year or two.  Ranked 230 and 249, respectively, neither has reached his 21st birthday; Kuznetsov just turned 20 on Tuesday.  That makes them two of the top 15 under-21s in the game.

In the meantime, Russia could suffer the ignominy of losing to a squad like the Ukraine’s (Alexander Dolgopolov and Sergiy Stakhovsky) or Kazakhstan’s (Andrey Golubev and Mikhail Kukushkin).

What Youhzny’s recovering from: It would be understandable if Youhzny made his announcement after reached the semifinal in Dubai, but no, he lost to Gilles Simon in the first round.  With Stakhovsky, he has had more success in doubles, reaching the final earlier today over Dick Norman and Marcel Granollers.

The other semifinal is taking place later today, between the team of Michael Llodra and Nenad Zimonjic and the team of Jeremy Chardy and Feliciano Lopez.  Chardy/Lopez doesn’t sound like a world-beating doubles team, but they’ve already taken out Mariusz Fyrstenburg/Marcin Matkowski and Rohan Bopanna/Aisam Qureshi.  An impressive week, even if they don’t go any further.

Other results: Semifinalists were determined in both Dubai and Acupulco yesterday.  Each one features a set of usual suspects plus one outsider.  In Dubai, Richard Gasquet beat Simon to set up a match today with Roger Federer.  In Acupulco, Thomaz Bellucci snuck through another match to set up a semifinal with the master of the Golden Swing, Nicholas Almagro.

I watched a good chunk of the Stanislas Wawrinka/Dolgopolov match last night.  Dolgopolov wasn’t in absolute top form, but playing the way he is at age 22, you have to wonder if we’re looking at a future French Open winner.  He can play from the baseline like a South American, but he isn’t afraid to move around the court.  The commentators were getting down on him for some bad volley errors, but what I saw was a player who was creating opportunities for himself at the net.  He’s got time to iron out the wrinkles in that part of his game.

Today: If your goal is to watch beautiful tennis strokes, the match of the day is between Federer and Gasquet.  They’re playing for a spot in the finals against Novak Djokovic.

If you want the potential for a long, hard-fought match that could go either way, the obvious choice is in Acupulco, between Dolgopolov and David Ferrer.  The two have played twice, both on hard courts last summer.  Ferrer won in straight sets at the US Open, but Dolgo took him to three in Cincinnati.  On a different surface, and as well as the Russian has played of late, I think we can throw those results away.

See you tomorrow!