You Can’t Win Over Our Aussie Sam Stosur … Or Can You?

With the possible exception of the first movement of Schubert’s Bb major piano sonata (D960), the greatest work of art to emerge from the western musical tradition is, of course, “Sam vs OVAs.”

After the six or seven hundredth time through this song, I untied my dancing shoes, put my tennis statistician hat back on, and wondered: Is the conventional wisdom valid? Is it true that players whose names end in “ova” can’t win over Sam Stosur?

Let’s delve into the database and find out.

“Sam vs OVAs” lists 24 potential opponents: 23 Ovas and 1 Galina Voskoboeva. Stosur has faced 21 of the 24 in her career, missing only Nina Bratchikova, Barbora Zahlavova Strycova, and Kristyna Pliskova. (For the record, Sam has faced Kristyna’s sister Karolina, losing in their one meeting.)

Sure enough, Ovas usually don’t win over Sam Stosur. The Aussie owns winning records against 13, has losing records against 7, and is even with 1, Yaroslava Shvedova.

Despite all those positive head-to-heads, the numbers aren’t so rosy upon closer inspection. Only 5 of 21 truly “can’t win” over Sam Stosur–Sam has lost at least once to 16 others. (That group of 16 includes Anastasia Rodionova and Jarmila Gajdosova, so the song is correct in those cases.) And while she has a positive aggregate record against the players in the song–holding at 56-52 as we head into the 2015 season–it is heavily weighed down by poor performances against Maria Sharapova (2-14), Petra Kvitova (1-7), and Lucie Safarova (2-9).

However, in Sam’s defense, the song’s lyricist didn’t cherry-pick in her favor. Stosur has faced 36 Ovas (plus Voskoboeva) in her career, 16 of whom weren’t named in the song. Against those players, she is undefeated against 10, and her overall record is a slightly better 15-12. Take out her abysmal 0-6 mark against Nicole Vaidisova, and you could put together a compelling (if biased) case that, as we have been led to believe, Ovas can’t win over Sam Stosur.

As my mother always taught me, a song can only reach its true potential once you thoroughly¬†fact-check it. With that in mind, let’s listen again!