Earlier today in Hobart, Naomi Osaka lost her second-round match to Mona Barthel. Coming into the match, she was in a tricky position: If she won, she wouldn’t be able to play Australian Open qualifying. For a young player outside the top 100, a tour-level quarterfinal would be nice, but presumably Melbourne was intended to be the centerpiece of her trip to Australia.
Since she lost the match, she’ll be able to play qualifying. But what if she hadn’t? Is this a situation in which a player would benefit from losing a match?
Put another way: In a position like Osaka’s, what are the incentives? If she could choose between the International-level quarterfinal and the Slam qualifying berth, which should she pick? Or, put more crassly, should a player in this position tank?
Let’s review the scenarios. In scenario A, Osaka wins the Hobart second-rounder, reaches the quarterfinal, and has a chance to go even further. She can’t play the Australian Open in any form. In scenario B, she loses the second-rounder, enters Melbourne qualifying and has a chance to reach the main draw.
Before we go through the numbers, take a guess: Which scenario is likely to give Osaka more ranking points? What about prize money?
Scenario A is more straightforward. By reaching the quarterfinals, she earns 30 additional ranking points and US$2,590 beyond what a second-round loser makes. Beyond that, we need to calculate “expected” points and prize money, using the amounts on offer for each round and combining them with her odds of getting there.
Let’s estimate that Osaka would have about a 25% chance of winning her quarterfinal match and earning an additional 50 points and $5400. In expected terms, that’s 12.5 points and $1,350. If she progresses, we’ll give her a 25% chance of reaching the final, then in the final, a 15% chance of winning the title.
Adding up these various possibilities, from her guaranteed QF points to her 0.94% chance (25%*25%*15*) of winning the Hobart title, we see that her expected rewards in scenario A are roughly 48 ranking points and just under $4,800.
Scenario B starts in a very different place. Thanks to the recent increases in Grand Slam prize money, every player in the qualifying takes home at least US$3,150. That’s already close to Osaka’s expected financial reward from advancing in Hobart. The points are a different story, though: First-round qualifying losers only get 2 WTA ranking points.
I’ll spare you all the calculations for scenario B, but I’ve assumed that Osaka would have a 70% chance of winning qualifying round 1, a 60% chance of winning QR2, and a 50% chance of winning QR3 and qualifying. Those might be a little bit high, but if they are, consider it compensation for the possibility that she’ll reach the main draw as a lucky loser. (Also, if we knock her chances all the way down to 50%, 45%, and 40%, the conclusions are the same, even if the points and prize money in scenario B are quite a bit lower.)
Those estimated probabilities translate into an expectation of about 23 ranking points and US$11,100. Osaka isn’t guaranteed any money beyond the initial $3,150, but the rewards for qualifying are enormous, especially compared to the prize money in Hobart. A first-round main draw loser in Melbourne takes home more money than the losing finalist does in Hobart.
And, of course, if she does qualify, there’s a chance she’ll go further. Since 2000, female Slam qualifiers have reached the second round 41% of the time, the third round 9% of the time, the fourth round 1.8% of the time, and the quarterfinals 0.3% of the time. Those odds, combined with her 21% chance of reaching the main draw in the first place, translate into an additional 7 expected ranking points and $2,600 in prize money.
All told, scenario B gives us 30 expected ranking points and US$13,600 in expected prize money.
The Slam option results in far more cash, while the International route is worth more ranking points. In the long term, those ranking points would have some financial value, possible earning Osaka entry into a few higher-level events than she would otherwise qualify for. But that value probably doesn’t overcome the nearly $9,000 gap in immediate prize money.
I hope that no player ever tanks a match at a tour-level event so they can make it in time for Slam qualifying. But if one does, we’ll at least understand the logic behind it.