Australian Open Men’s R32 Projections

The top seven seeds are still alive, so in the big picture, not much has changed since I posted pre-tournament odds.   The big names have all seen their chances of winning creep up a little bit,  largely because they’ve gotten past the dangers of the first two rounds.  Some upsets elsewhere in the draw have helped, as well.

The biggest winner on that score is Juan Martin del Potro, whose chances have jumped from 2.6% to 4.2%, as he’s been granted what should be two easy matches before a quarterfinal showdown with Roger Federer.

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W
(1)Novak Djokovic          91.9%  76.3%  59.2%    26.7%
Nicolas Mahut               8.1%   2.6%   0.7%     0.0%
(23)Milos Raonic           79.8%  19.3%   9.0%     1.1%
(WC)Lleyton Hewitt         20.2%   1.8%   0.3%     0.0%
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        54.6%  28.4%   8.9%     1.3%
(17)Richard Gasquet        45.4%  21.7%   5.9%     0.7%
(27)Juan Ignacio Chela     13.9%   2.3%   0.2%     0.0%
(5)David Ferrer            86.1%  47.7%  15.8%     2.7%  

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W
(4)Andy Murray             81.4%  55.6%  34.5%    10.4%
Michael Llodra             18.6%   6.6%   2.0%     0.1%
Mikhail Kukushkin          23.8%   4.8%   1.2%     0.0%
(14)Gael Monfils           76.2%  33.0%  16.3%     2.9%
Julien Benneteau           31.6%   8.8%   2.3%     0.1%
(24)Kei Nishikori          68.4%  29.6%  12.4%     1.8%
Frederico Gil               8.8%   1.5%   0.1%     0.0%
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      91.2%  60.1%  31.3%     7.3%  

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W
Alejandro Falla            35.9%   9.6%   1.9%     0.1%
Philipp Kohlschreiber      64.1%  24.7%   7.3%     0.5%
Yen-Hsun Lu                21.6%   9.1%   1.8%     0.1%
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  78.4%  56.5%  26.4%     4.6%
(13)Alexandr Dolgopolov    49.2%  16.3%   8.3%     0.9%
Bernard Tomic              50.8%  17.2%   8.7%     1.0%
Ivo Karlovic               18.4%   7.0%   2.8%     0.2%
(3)Roger Federer           81.6%  59.5%  42.8%    13.2%  

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W
(7)Tomas Berdych           71.3%  44.9%  20.9%     4.4%
(30)Kevin Anderson         28.7%  12.0%   3.3%     0.2%
(21)Stanislas Wawrinka     64.6%  31.0%  12.3%     1.8%
(10)Nicolas Almagro        35.4%  12.2%   3.3%     0.2%
(16)John Isner             55.1%  17.1%   7.7%     0.9%
(18)Feliciano Lopez        44.9%  12.4%   5.0%     0.5%
(q)Lukas Lacko             13.2%   4.4%   1.2%     0.0%
(2)Rafael Nadal            86.8%  66.1%  46.4%    16.1%

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