Here are my forecasts for the Wimbledon women’s draw. Despite Maria Sharapova’s performance at the French, my ranking system still has her third, behind both Serena and Azarenka. Also, you might also be surprised by the significant chance I give Kim Clijsters. While she hasn’t played much, she’s played well, and my system operates on the assumption that if someone takes the court, she is doing so fully healthy. (Or, at least, as healthy as she’s been other times she took the court.)
If you’re interested in the rankings behind these forecasts, click here; for more background on the system, here.
I’ll post men’s odds later today, and the forecast will be updated throughout the tournament–I’ll post those links when I have them, probably mid-day Tuesday.
Player R64 R32 R16 W
1 Maria Sharapova 89.1% 68.7% 56.4% 8.7%
Anastasia Rodionova 10.9% 3.4% 1.2% 0.0%
Vesna Dolonc 21.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Tsvetana Pironkova 78.2% 25.1% 15.9% 0.4%
Su-Wei Hsieh 51.5% 29.5% 8.0% 0.1%
Virginie Razzano 48.5% 27.0% 7.1% 0.1%
S Foretz Gacon 28.2% 7.8% 1.0% 0.0%
29 Monica Niculescu 71.8% 35.6% 9.5% 0.1%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
23 Petra Cetkovska 55.0% 38.3% 19.9% 0.3%
Vania King 45.0% 29.3% 13.8% 0.1%
Sloane Stephens 63.2% 23.1% 8.6% 0.0%
Karolina Pliskova 36.8% 9.2% 2.4% 0.0%
Bojana Jovanovski 58.0% 17.0% 6.8% 0.0%
Eleni Daniilidou 42.0% 9.9% 3.2% 0.0%
Petra Martic 32.6% 20.5% 10.2% 0.1%
15 Sabine Lisicki 67.4% 52.6% 35.2% 1.2%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
12 Vera Zvonareva 75.3% 64.2% 33.5% 2.3%
Mona Barthel 24.8% 16.3% 4.7% 0.0%
Edina Gallovits-Hall 37.5% 5.6% 0.8% 0.0%
Silvia Soler-Espinosa 62.5% 13.8% 3.0% 0.0%
Kai-Chen Chang 52.0% 7.6% 2.0% 0.0%
Andrea Hlavackova 48.0% 6.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Kim Clijsters 70.6% 63.1% 43.1% 5.4%
18 Jelena Jankovic 29.4% 22.9% 11.4% 0.3%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
28 Christina McHale 79.2% 64.0% 30.0% 0.7%
Johanna Konta 20.8% 11.0% 2.1% 0.0%
Lesia Tsurenko 59.4% 16.4% 3.4% 0.0%
Mathilde Johansson 40.6% 8.7% 1.3% 0.0%
Ekaterina Makarova 80.8% 38.2% 23.5% 0.6%
Alberta Brianti 19.2% 3.7% 1.1% 0.0%
Lucie Hradecka 19.1% 6.1% 2.3% 0.0%
8 Angelique Kerber 80.9% 52.1% 36.1% 2.1%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
3 Agnieszka Radwanska 88.4% 70.6% 50.7% 7.3%
Magdalena Rybarikova 11.6% 4.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Venus Williams 51.5% 13.3% 5.4% 0.1%
Elena Vesnina 48.5% 12.1% 4.8% 0.0%
Iveta Benesova 72.8% 35.1% 13.0% 0.3%
Heather Watson 27.2% 7.5% 1.4% 0.0%
Jamie Lee Hampton 20.8% 6.9% 1.3% 0.0%
27 Daniela Hantuchova 79.2% 50.6% 22.3% 1.0%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
20 Nadia Petrova 83.0% 56.0% 28.4% 0.4%
Maria Elena Camerin 17.0% 5.1% 1.0% 0.0%
Timea Babos 40.1% 13.3% 4.1% 0.0%
Melanie Oudin 59.9% 25.6% 9.9% 0.0%
Tamarine Tanasugarn 52.2% 11.9% 3.8% 0.0%
Anna Tatishvili 47.8% 10.1% 3.0% 0.0%
Camila Giorgi 18.9% 10.2% 3.6% 0.0%
16 Flavia Pennetta 81.1% 67.9% 46.1% 1.7%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
11 Na Li 77.1% 60.0% 44.4% 3.8%
Ksenia Pervak 22.9% 11.8% 5.7% 0.0%
Sorana Cirstea 69.4% 22.5% 11.9% 0.1%
Pauline Parmentier 30.6% 5.6% 2.0% 0.0%
Naomi Broady 43.8% 10.4% 1.7% 0.0%
L Dominguez Lino 56.2% 16.1% 3.4% 0.0%
Alexandra Cadantu 15.1% 6.1% 0.9% 0.0%
17 Maria Kirilenko 84.9% 67.4% 29.9% 0.6%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
30 Shuai Peng 80.2% 54.1% 23.5% 0.4%
Sandra Zaniewska 19.8% 6.8% 1.3% 0.0%
Jarmila Gajdosova 59.4% 25.3% 7.9% 0.0%
Ayumi Morita 40.6% 13.9% 3.4% 0.0%
Arantxa Rus 52.1% 10.3% 3.7% 0.0%
Misaki Doi 47.9% 9.1% 3.1% 0.0%
Carla Suarez Navarro 17.6% 9.9% 4.0% 0.0%
5 Samantha Stosur 82.4% 70.7% 53.1% 4.2%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
6 Serena Williams 90.4% 80.9% 67.2% 16.1%
B Zahlavova Strycova 9.6% 4.6% 1.7% 0.0%
Johanna Larsson 43.5% 5.7% 2.0% 0.0%
Melinda Czink 56.5% 8.8% 3.6% 0.0%
Vera Dushevina 47.7% 19.1% 3.9% 0.0%
Aleksandra Wozniak 52.3% 22.2% 4.7% 0.0%
Stephanie Dubois 18.9% 5.7% 0.7% 0.0%
25 Jie Zheng 81.1% 53.0% 16.2% 0.4%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
19 Lucie Safarova 80.1% 57.6% 39.9% 0.8%
Kiki Bertens 19.9% 7.7% 2.7% 0.0%
Chanelle Scheepers 49.7% 17.2% 7.9% 0.0%
Yaroslava Shvedova 50.3% 17.6% 8.3% 0.0%
Laura Pous-Tio 35.9% 9.4% 2.2% 0.0%
Anne Keothavong 64.1% 24.9% 8.7% 0.0%
Coco Vandeweghe 33.8% 18.7% 6.6% 0.0%
10 Sara Errani 66.2% 47.0% 23.7% 0.2%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
13 Dominika Cibulkova 64.4% 53.7% 38.7% 1.5%
Klara Zakopalova 35.6% 26.2% 15.6% 0.1%
Olga Govortsova 50.6% 10.2% 3.6% 0.0%
Annika Beck 49.4% 9.9% 3.5% 0.0%
Polona Hercog 64.5% 28.1% 10.0% 0.0%
Kristyna Pliskova 35.5% 10.8% 2.7% 0.0%
Laura Robson 31.3% 15.2% 4.6% 0.0%
24 Francesca Schiavone 68.7% 45.9% 21.3% 0.2%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
31 A Pavlyuchenkova 64.0% 50.0% 18.4% 0.5%
Sofia Arvidsson 36.0% 24.0% 6.4% 0.0%
P Mayr-Achleitner 34.2% 6.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Varvara Lepchenko 65.8% 19.8% 3.9% 0.0%
Elena Baltacha 64.5% 10.0% 3.5% 0.0%
Karin Knapp 35.5% 3.5% 0.8% 0.0%
A Amanmuradova 9.4% 4.7% 1.4% 0.0%
4 Petra Kvitova 90.6% 81.7% 64.8% 9.0%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
7 Caroline Wozniacki 82.7% 71.2% 50.1% 5.0%
Tamira Paszek 17.3% 9.7% 3.3% 0.0%
Alize Cornet 55.1% 11.2% 3.3% 0.0%
Nina Bratchikova 44.9% 7.9% 2.0% 0.0%
Greta Arn 34.0% 9.8% 2.6% 0.0%
Galina Voskoboeva 66.0% 29.3% 11.6% 0.2%
Yanina Wickmayer 50.0% 30.4% 13.5% 0.3%
32 Svetlana Kuznetsova 50.0% 30.5% 13.6% 0.3%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
21 Roberta Vinci 81.4% 50.9% 22.1% 0.2%
Ashleigh Barty 18.6% 5.2% 0.9% 0.0%
Urszula Radwanska 48.3% 21.1% 7.0% 0.0%
Marina Erakovic 51.7% 22.9% 7.7% 0.0%
Mirjana Lucic 49.0% 8.2% 2.4% 0.0%
Alexandra Panova 51.0% 8.8% 2.6% 0.0%
Casey Dellacqua 18.1% 11.1% 4.4% 0.0%
9 Marion Bartoli 81.9% 71.9% 53.0% 2.9%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
14 Ana Ivanovic 67.6% 51.4% 34.2% 1.3%
M Martinez Sanchez 32.4% 19.7% 9.8% 0.1%
Kimiko Date-Krumm 31.7% 6.1% 1.8% 0.0%
Kateryna Bondarenko 68.3% 22.9% 10.5% 0.0%
Anastasiya Yakimova 49.0% 10.2% 2.2% 0.0%
Mandy Minella 51.0% 11.2% 2.5% 0.0%
Shahar Peer 37.1% 26.9% 11.1% 0.1%
22 Julia Goerges 62.9% 51.7% 27.8% 0.6%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
26 A Medina Garrigues 40.2% 27.6% 5.7% 0.0%
Simona Halep 59.8% 46.3% 12.4% 0.2%
Jana Cepelova 45.5% 11.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Kristina Mladenovic 54.5% 15.0% 1.8% 0.0%
Irina-Camelia Begu 34.9% 3.2% 1.0% 0.0%
Romina Oprandi 65.1% 9.6% 4.4% 0.0%
Irina Falconi 7.6% 3.4% 1.3% 0.0%
2 Victoria Azarenka 92.4% 83.8% 72.1% 17.0%