You’ve probably heard the stat by now. When Naomi Osaka reaches the quarter-final of a major, she’s 12-0. That’s unprecedented, and it’s especially unexpected from a player who doesn’t exactly pile up hardware outside of the hard court grand slams. It sure looks like Osaka finds another level as she approaches the business end of … Continue reading How Much Does Naomi Osaka Raise Her Game?
You don’t have to watch tennis for long before hearing a commentator explain that matches can be decided by the slimmest of margins. It’s common for a match winner to tally only 51% or 52% of the total points played. Dozens of times each year, players go even further, triumphing despite winning fewer than half … Continue reading Rethinking Match Results as Probabilities
Key Points GP Conv: Game points converted (as server), as a percentage of game point opportunities. BP Conv: Break points converted (as returner), as a percentage of break point opportunities. SP Conv: Set points converted (as server or returner), as a percentage of set point opportunities. MP Conv: Match points converted (as server or returner), … Continue reading Point-by-Point Stats: Glossary
Italian translation at settesei.it In theory, tiebreaks are a showcase for big serving, the skill that generates enough holds of serve to push a set to 6-6. But no matter how two players get there, the tiebreak itself doesn’t always work out that way. Two examples suffice from Wednesday’s Australian Open action. Roger Federer’s second-round … Continue reading A Closer Look at Tiebreak Tactics
Italian translation at settesei.it Everyone seems to agree that a huge part of tennis is mental. It’s less clear exactly what that means. Pundits and fans often say that certain players are mentally strong or mentally weak, attributes that help explain the gap when there’s a mismatch between talent and results. Here are three more … Continue reading Rethinking the Mental Game
Embed from Getty Images Dominic Thiem has good reason to be frustrated. Italian translation at settesei.it On Tuesday night, Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem delivered the match of the 2018 US Open thus far. After nearly five hours of play, nothing separated them as they battled their way to 5-5 in a fifth-set tiebreak. Nadal … Continue reading Dominic Thiem In Pressure Service Games
Embed from Getty Images Vondrousova sits in awe of her own statistical feat. Italian translation at settesei.it By most measures, Marketa Vondrousova wasn’t supposed to win her third-round encounter with Kiki Bertens at the US Open on Saturday. She won a mere 47.1% of points, 12 fewer than Bertens, and she lost her own service … Continue reading Marketa Vondrousova’s Next-Level Lottery Match
In Toronto last week, Stefanos Tsitsipas was either very clutch, very lucky, or both. Against Alexander Zverev in Friday’s quarter-final, he won fewer than half of all points, claiming only 56.7% of his service points, compared to Zverev’s 61.2%. The next day, beating Kevin Anderson in the semi-final in a third-set tiebreak, he again failed … Continue reading Measuring a Season’s Worth of Luck
We all know that double faults aren’t good, but it’s less clear just how bad they are. Over the course of an entire match, a single point here or there doesn’t seem to matter too much, especially when a double fault creeps in at a harmless moment, like 40-love. Yet many missed second serves are … Continue reading The Cost of a Double Fault
Italian translation at settesei.it Last week, I offered a method to rank smash-hitting skill. I measured the results in “points per 100”–the number of points a player could expect to gain or lose, relative to tour average, thanks to their ability hitting that one shot. The resulting figures were quite small: My calculations showed that … Continue reading The Power of One Point Per Thousand