Long after retiring from tennis, Marat Safin remains quotable. The Russian captain at the ATP Cup had this to say to his charge, Karen Khachanov, during a match against Taylor Fritz:
This isn’t exactly testable. I don’t know you’d quantify “shock-and-awe,” or how to identify–let alone measure–attempts to scare one’s opponent. Or screwed-ness, for that matter. But if we take “screwed” to mean the same as “not very likely to win,” we’ve got something we can check.
Many fans would agree with the general claim that American men tend to have big serves, aggressive game styles, and not a whole lot of subtlety. Certainly John Isner fits that mold, and Sam Querrey doesn’t deviate much from it. While Fritz is a big hitter who racks up his share of aces and second-shot putaways, his style isn’t so one-dimensional.
Taylor Fritz: not screwed
Using data from the Match Charting Project, I calculated some rally-length stats for the 70 men with at least 20 charted matches in the last decade. That includes five Americans (Fritz, Isner, Querrey, Steve Johnson, and Jack Sock) and most of the other guys we think of as ATP tour regulars.
Safin’s implied definition is that rallies of four shots or fewer are “shock-and-awe” territory, points that are won or lost within either player’s first two shots. Longer rallies are, supposedly, the points where the Americans lose the edge.
That is certainly the case for Isner. He wins only 40% of points when the rally reaches a fifth shot, by far the worst of these tour regulars. Compared to Isner, even Nick Kyrgios (44%) and Ivo Karlovic (45%) look respectable. The range of winning percentages extends as high as 56%, the mark held by Nikoloz Basilashvili. Rafael Nadal is, unsurprisingly, right behind him in second place at 54%, a whisker ahead of Novak Djokovic.
Fritz, at 50.2%, ranks 28th out of 70, roughly equal to the likes of Gael Monfils, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Dominic Thiem. Best of all–if you’re a contrarian like me, anyway–is that Fritz is almost 20 places higher on the list than Khachanov, who wins 48.5% of points that last five shots or more.
More data
Here are 20 of the 70 players, including some from the top and bottom of the list, along with all the Americans and some other characters of interest. I’ve calculated each player’s percentage of points won for 1- or 2-shot rallies (serve and return winners), 3- or 4-shot rallies (serve- and return-plus-one points), and 5- or more-shot rallies. They are ranked by the 5- or more-shot column:
Rank Player 1-2 W% 3-4 W% 5+ W% 1 Nikoloz Basilashvili 43.7% 54.1% 55.8% 2 Rafael Nadal 52.7% 51.6% 54.3% 3 Novak Djokovic 51.8% 54.6% 54.0% 4 Kei Nishikori 45.5% 51.2% 53.9% 11 Roger Federer 52.9% 54.9% 52.1% 22 Philipp Kohlschreiber 50.1% 50.1% 50.7% 28 Taylor Fritz 51.1% 47.2% 50.2% 30 Jack Sock 49.0% 46.5% 50.2% 31 Alexander Zverev 52.8% 50.3% 50.0% 32 Juan Martin del Potro 53.8% 49.1% 50.0% 34 Andy Murray 54.3% 49.5% 49.4% 39 Daniil Medvedev 53.9% 50.4% 49.0% 43 Stefanos Tsitsipas 51.4% 50.5% 48.6% 44 Karen Khachanov 53.7% 48.1% 48.5% 48 Steve Johnson 49.2% 48.8% 48.3% 61 Sam Querrey 53.5% 48.0% 46.2% 62 Matteo Berrettini 53.6% 49.3% 46.1% 66 Ivo Karlovic 51.8% 43.9% 44.9% 68 Nick Kyrgios 54.6% 47.4% 44.2% 70 John Isner 52.3% 48.3% 40.2%
Fritz is one of the few players who win more than half of the shortest rallies and more than half of the longest ones. The first category can be the result of a strong serve, as is probably the case with Fritz, and is definitely the case with Isner. But you don’t have to have a big serve to win more than half of the 1- or 2-shot points. Nadal and Djokovic do well in that category (like they do in virtually all categories) in large part because they negate the advantage of their opponents’ serves.
Shifting focus from the Americans for a moment, you might be surprised by the players with positive winning percentages in all three categories. Nadal, Djokovic, and Roger Federer all make the cut, each with plenty of room to spare. The remaining two are the unexpected ones. Philipp Kohlschreiber is just barely better than neutral in both classes of short points, and a bit better than that (50.7%) on long ones. And Alexander Zverev qualifies by the skin of his teeth, winning very slightly more than half of his long rallies. (Yes, that 50.0% is rounded down, not up.) Match Charting Project data is far from complete, so it’s possible that with a different sample, one or both of the Germans would fall below the 50% mark, but the numbers for both are based on sizable datasets.
Back to Fritz, Isner, and company. Safin may be right that the Americans want to scare you with a couple of big shots. Isner has certainly intimidated his share of opponents with the serve alone. Yet Fritz, the player who prompted the comment, is more well-rounded than the Russian captain gave him credit for. Khachanov won the match on Sunday, and at least at this stage in their careers, the Russian is the better player. But not on longer rallies. Based on our broader look at the data, it’s Khachanov who should try to avoid getting dragged into long exchanges, not Fritz.