Episode 51 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, starts with a discussion of Roger Federer’s 100th title, and the chances that he’ll reach Jimmy Connors’s record of 109. We also consider the odds that Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will join him in the triple-digit title club. We … Continue reading Podcast Episode 51: 100 For Federer, and 50.4% for Kyrgios
Also today: Wild cards and doping bans; Miami preview podcast It is not easy to analyze the drop shot. Players don’t hit it very often, they sometimes hit it from very favorable or very unfavorable circumstances, and the goal of the shot sometimes extends beyond winning the point at hand. We can point to someone … Continue reading Effects and After-Effects of the Carlos Alcaraz Drop Shot
Also today: Ugo Humbert in the (Elo) top ten; South American Davis Cup hard courts Never underestimate average. Establishing oneself on the top level of the pro tennis circuit is extraordinarily difficult; proving that any particular skill is average among one’s tour-level peers is even harder. Most players are better than the norm in some … Continue reading Elena Rybakina and the Value of Average
Tireless podcaster Alex Gruskin likes to talk about what he calls the “top-ten, top-15, top-20, and top-25 clubs.” He works out the membership of each one by consulting the Tennis Abstract ATP and WTA stats leaderboards, which display dozens of metrics for each of the top 50 ranked players on both tours. To qualify for … Continue reading The Most Exclusive Clubs In Tennis
As draw-probability takes go, this one is pretty spicy: Satisfyingly counterintuitive if true. Is it? A few reasons for skepticism: As an unseeded player, you could get a top-eight seeded opponent in the first round. Or the second. Or, after upsetting a lower seed–you are almost guaranteed to get one in the first or second … Continue reading Is It Ever Better To Be Unseeded?
In 2022, I’m counting down the 128 best players of the last century. With luck, we’ll get to #1 in December. Enjoy! * * * Virginia Wade [GBR] Born: 10 July 1945 Career: 1962-85 Plays: Right-handed (one-handed backhand) Peak rank: 2 (1975) Peak Elo rating: 2,285 (2nd place, 1976) Major singles titles: 3 Total singles … Continue reading The Tennis 128: No. 75, Virginia Wade
In 2022, I’m counting down the 128 best players of the last century. With luck, we’ll get to #1 in December. Enjoy! * * * Goran Ivanišević [CRO] Born: 13 September 1971 Career: 1989-2004 Plays: Left-handed (two-handed backhand) Peak rank: 2 (1994) Peak Elo rating: 2,185 (3rd place, 1993) Major singles titles: 1 (2001 Wimbledon) … Continue reading The Tennis 128: No. 111, Goran Ivanišević
Australian Open qualifying starts in just a few hours. 128 men and 128 women stand three wins away from a spot in a grand slam main draw. Only 16 of each will remain at the end of the week. Forecasting is particularly tricky during qualifying. Unlike most tournaments, when the top seeds far outrank the … Continue reading Picking 32 Qualifiers
Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Berrettini and Novak Djokovic make the most of their first two shots, Karolina Pliskova finds some magic out wide, and the Croatian doubles team of Mektic and Pavic chases the Bryan brothers. Scroll … Continue reading Expected Points, July 9: The Impenetrable Matteo Berrettini
Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Marin Cilic keeps winning on his favorite surface, Vandeweghe is deep sleeper pick for Wimbledon, and Sebastian Korda joins an impressive list of multi-faceted stars. Scroll down for a transcript. You can subscribe … Continue reading Expected Points, June 16: CoCo Vandeweghe is Serving Big