2012 Miami Projections: 2nd Round

Every 2nd-rounder in Miami is between a seed and a non-seed, so we’re on full-time upset watch for the next two days.  (Barring withdrawals, anyway.)  There are plenty to keep an eye out for:

  • Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Viktor Troicki.  Troicki has never been a very convincing seed, and GGL is coming off of a big win over Andy Murray at Indian Wells.  Qualifiers don’t come any tougher than the Spainard.
  • Bernard Tomic vs David Ferrer.  The surface is on Tomic’s side; everything else tilts to Ferrer.  But my algorithm like’s the Aussie’s chances, setting the match awfully close to equal.
  • Nicolas Almagro vs David Goffin. 62/38 usually doesn’t qualify as an upset-in-the-making.  This one’s closer than I would’ve expected, thanks to Almagro’s inconsistency on hardcourts.  Goffin doesn’t have much in the way of weapons, but that didn’t stop him from taking out Donald Young yesterday.
  • Kevin Anderson vs Sam Querrey.  Almost dead-even.  As if you didn’t already one this one would be decided in two or three tiebreaks.
  • David Nalbandian vs Janko Tipsarevic. In case you ever need an example of when ATP rankings aren’t enough.  My algorithm gives Nalbandian the slight edge; I have to imagine that any fan would give the Argentine a bigger one.
  • Nikolay Davydenko vs John Isner.  I have this one set at 69/31 in Isner’s favor, but Davydenko does have the sort of game that gives the big man trouble.

Here’s the full table:

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          79.9%  68.5%  57.5%    21.5%  
Marcos Baghdatis           20.1%  12.1%   7.0%     0.5%  
(q)Guillermo Garcia Lopez  46.0%   8.3%   3.8%     0.1%  
(27)Viktor Troicki         54.0%  11.0%   5.4%     0.2%  
(17)Richard Gasquet        65.6%  40.8%  12.6%     0.9%  
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe        34.4%  16.3%   3.3%     0.1%  
Albert Ramos               25.6%   6.5%   0.8%     0.0%  
(15)Feliciano Lopez        74.4%  36.4%   9.5%     0.4%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  77.9%  56.3%  38.7%     6.0%  
Ivo Karlovic               22.1%   9.8%   3.8%     0.1%  
Igor Kunitsyn              22.3%   3.7%   0.9%     0.0%  
(23)Marin Cilic            77.7%  30.3%  15.6%     0.8%  
(30)Julien Benneteau       63.0%  24.0%   8.3%     0.2%  
Benjamin Becker            37.0%   9.8%   2.5%     0.0%  
Bernard Tomic              45.7%  29.3%  12.7%     0.7%  
(5)David Ferrer            54.3%  36.9%  17.6%     1.3%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(3)Roger Federer           81.7%  64.4%  46.7%    12.2%  
(WC)Ryan Harrison          18.3%   8.4%   3.2%     0.1%  
Gilles Muller              30.2%   5.3%   1.6%     0.0%  
(31)Andy Roddick           69.8%  21.9%  10.5%     0.6%  
(21)Juan Monaco            65.0%  26.0%   8.0%     0.3%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                35.0%   9.4%   1.9%     0.0%  
(q)Sergei Bubka            18.9%   7.0%   1.4%     0.0%  
(14)Gael Monfils           81.1%  57.6%  26.6%     3.2%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(12)Nicolas Almagro        62.1%  35.3%  17.3%     0.7%  
(q)David Goffin            37.9%  17.3%   6.3%     0.1%  
(q)Bjorn Phau              24.9%   7.1%   1.8%     0.0%  
(20)Fernando Verdasco      75.1%  40.2%  19.1%     0.7%  
(28)Kevin Anderson         51.3%  23.3%  12.1%     0.4%  
Sam Querrey                48.7%  21.6%  11.0%     0.3%  
(q)Frank Dancevic          23.9%   8.1%   2.9%     0.0%  
(8)Mardy Fish              76.1%  47.1%  29.5%     2.1%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(7)Tomas Berdych           81.5%  63.9%  40.1%     4.6%  
Nicolas Mahut              18.5%   8.8%   2.5%     0.0%  
Grigor Dimitrov            74.3%  23.6%   8.6%     0.1%  
(29)Juan Ignacio Chela     25.7%   3.7%   0.6%     0.0%  
(18)Alexandr Dolgopolov    83.4%  40.1%  19.0%     1.0%  
(q)Antonio Veic            16.6%   2.5%   0.4%     0.0%  
David Nalbandian           51.3%  29.6%  15.0%     0.9%  
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        48.7%  27.8%  13.7%     0.7%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(13)Gilles Simon           73.8%  45.2%  16.6%     1.1%  
(q)Roberto Bautista Agut   26.2%   9.5%   1.8%     0.0%  
Robin Haase                40.9%  16.4%   3.7%     0.1%  
(22)Jurgen Melzer          59.1%  28.9%   8.8%     0.3%  
(26)Milos Raonic           79.5%  26.2%  15.1%     0.9%  
(q)Arnaud Clement          20.5%   2.7%   0.7%     0.0%  
Alejandro Falla            14.1%   5.2%   2.0%     0.0%  
(4)Andy Murray             85.9%  65.9%  51.4%    12.6%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      79.2%  57.5%  36.3%     4.6%  
Xavier Malisse             20.8%   8.8%   2.7%     0.0%  
Frederico Gil              22.4%   3.7%   0.7%     0.0%  
(32)Philipp Kohlschreiber  77.6%  30.1%  13.6%     0.5%  
(19)Florian Mayer          58.7%  26.8%  12.0%     0.6%  
Ivan Dodig                 41.3%  15.7%   5.8%     0.1%  
Nikolay Davydenko          31.4%  14.0%   5.1%     0.1%  
(10)John Isner             68.6%  43.5%  23.7%     2.2%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(16)Kei Nishikori          67.7%  44.1%  18.9%     1.7%  
Lukas Lacko                32.3%  15.3%   4.3%     0.1%  
Lukas Rosol                30.8%   8.6%   1.8%     0.0%  
(24)Marcel Granollers      69.2%  32.0%  11.0%     0.5%  
(25)Radek Stepanek         81.6%  17.4%   6.4%     0.1%  
Tommy Haas                 18.4%   1.1%   0.1%     0.0%  
Santiago Giraldo           17.9%  10.6%   4.4%     0.1%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            82.2%  70.9%  53.1%    13.2%

Why the ATP is More Popular Than the WTA

Last night, Fernando Gonzalez played the last match of his career.  Gonzo is a fan favorite, with a historically great forehand that propelled him to finals at the 2007 Australian Open and the 2008 Olympics.  He won tour-level titles over a ten-year span.

Next month, the man in the limelight will be Ivan Ljubicic.  He doesn’t exactly qualify as a “fan favorite,” but tennis aficionados have grown to appreciate his deadly service accuracy, beautiful one-handed backhand, and intelligence on and off the court.

Men’s tennis is in the age of the veteran.  Even though we’re talking about 20-somethings and a few 30-year-olds, virtually every player at the top of the game five years ago is still in the mix today.  With the exception of Andre Agassi, every top-ranked player from the ten years is still active.

And fans love veterans.  The current state of the ATP is tailor-made for fan interest.

There are two things going on here.  One is simply a matter of familiarity.  If you lost interest in tennis for the last five years, you might be surprised to find Mario Ancic out of the game, Arnaud Clement still in it, and Andy Roddick well out of the top ten, but the cast of characters would be immediately recognizable.  It’s like a television soap opera–you only have to watch an episode or two before you’re back in the swing of things.

The other factor is what we might call the “Agassi effect.”  In the late 80’s and early 90’s, Agassi was the stereotypical brash youngster, offending the effete and challenging Wimbledon’s all-white rule.  A decade and a half later, he was perhaps the most popular player in the game, the very picture of sportsmanship and class.  Few players undergo such a radical transformation in the eyes of the public, but the general direction is very common.

Only a few years ago, Rafael Nadal was a divisive figure, mocked by many for his sleeveless tops and bulging biceps.  More recently, Novak Djokovic was widely disliked.  I’m sure detractors are still out there, but they are much quieter.  Think back to the early days of just about any veteran’s career–Andy Roddick was exciting to American fans, objectionable to most everybody else.  Lleyton Hewitt was another Agassi, and he didn’t grow out of it as quickly.

Yet for all that, can you think of a player who has gotten less popular as he ages?  Perhaps this phenomenon is unique to individual sports.  In team sports, some figures seem to attract fans, but others lose them, as they sign mega-contracts with new teams, becoming viewed as sellouts.  (Or worse, if they take the mega-contract, then never perform as well again.)

The phenomenon of gaining fans with age isn’t limited to men–veteran WTA players experience it, as well.  It seems like Kim Clijsters was better loved upon her return to the game than she was the day she retired.  Even the Williams sisters seem to have fewer detractors these days than they did several years ago.  But while the WTA has its share of vets, it has far fewer players who have persisted at the top of the game.

Only two players from the 2007 year-end top ten (Maria Sharapova and Marion Bartoli) are in the top ten of today’s WTA rankings.  Most of the WTA’s vets have hung around on the fringes of the game’s best for years.  Li Na, Sam Stosur, and Vera Zvonareva have all given us their share of highlights, but to extend my soap opera analogy, they are peripheral characters who star in a few episodes, only to disappear into the background again.  Someone who hasn’t watched women’s tennis for a few years would have a hard time catching up.

Of course, none of this is to say that men’s tennis is inherently better.  At various times in the past, the WTA has had a stronger stable of perennial stars, and when that is the case, it rakes in the ratings.  Victoria Azarenka may not be as obviously bankable as a charmer like Caroline Wozniacki or a cover girl like Maria Sharapova, but by winning consistently, she gives the women’s game a head start toward developing what the ATP possesses right now.  If a few other players rise to the challenge for more than a couple months at a time, we might do more than just talk about Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal all the time.

Who Can Stop John Isner?

Last week, John Isner beat world number one Novak Djokovic.  Earlier this year, the victim was Roger Federer.  At least year’s French Open, Rafael Nadal had to go to five sets to eliminate the big man.  Between Isner’s massive serve and the general improvement in his game, it seems that he can beat anybody.

To beat big John, you need either a strong return game or solid tiebreaker skills.  Ideally, you’d have both.  (The only alternatives are to catch him on an off-day or to play him on a slow clay court.)  Let’s take a look at how opponents have fared against the Isner serve over the course of his career.

One surprising indicator of return prowess is ace-rate-against.  We tend to think of ace rate as a function only of the server’s ability, perhaps coupled with surface speed.   But returner’s have plenty to say about it, too.  Simply looking at Isner’s 17 tour-level matches this year, we see a remarkable range of ace rates, from 36.6% of points against Gilles Muller in Memphis down to 5.6% against Federer in Indian Wells.  Surface plays a role, as do a variety of other factors (maybe Isner was tired after beating Djokovic in the semifinal last week), but some players are considerably better than others at getting the ball back in play.

A thorough look at that phenomenon is a subject for another day.  There’s plenty to do simply comparing performances against Isner.  As I’ve noted before, a big serve doesn’t necessarily make a player more unpredictable, though of course such a weapon might make him a better player.

63 players have faced Isner at least twice in tour-level events.  Of those, the most effective has been Lleyton Hewitt, holding Isner’s ace rate under 10% and winning almost half of Isner’s serve points.  However, the most recent of those two matches was almost two years ago.  Still, it’s not surprising to see a world-class counterpuncher atop this list–Hewitt limits aces and service holds against just about everybody.

We find more of the same near the top of the list, with Juan Ignacio Chela, Gilles Simon, and Nikolay Davydenko all in the top 10, ranked by the rate of return points won.  Height might also help in handling the physics-defying bounces of the Isner serve: both Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro are among the top 15, though some other tall guys (Kevin Anderson and Ivo Karlovic are shown below) have generally weak return games, so the argument doesn’t seem to apply to them.

The unexpected contrast on this list is to find Nadal several spots below Djokovic, Federer, and Andy Murray.  Nadal allows about the same ace rate as Djokovic and Murray, but he doesn’t perform as well on the balls he gets back in play.  One popular theory is that because of his height, Isner is able to neutralize some of Rafa’s spin.  Regardless of the reason why, it’s even more unexpected to see Rafa so far down the list, since two of the three Nadal-Isner matches have taken place on clay.

Here are some of the raw results for players who have faced Isner two or more times.  I’ve shown the 20 opponents who have won the most return points, along with ten other notable players, whose ranks (out of 63) are shown in parenthesis.

Opponent                 SvPts  Matches   Ace%  SvPtsWon  
Lleyton Hewitt             124        2   8.9%     53.2%  
Tomas Berdych              300        3  11.7%     57.7%  
Thiemo De Bakker*          165        2   9.1%     60.0%  
Mikhail Youzhny            258        2  16.3%     61.6%  
Juan Ignacio Chela         269        3   6.7%     62.1%  
Novak Djokovic             191        2  14.1%     62.3%  
Andy Murray                224        2  13.8%     62.5%  
Roger Federer              243        3  11.5%     63.0%  
Gilles Simon               244        2  15.2%     63.9%  
Nikolay Davydenko          248        3  18.5%     64.1%  

David Ferrer               326        4  14.7%     64.4%  
Viktor Troicki             234        3   9.0%     64.5%  
Juan Martin Del Potro      201        3  16.4%     64.7%  
Robin Haase                233        2  15.0%     64.8%  
Rafael Nadal               336        3  13.7%     64.9%  
Richard Gasquet            221        2  19.0%     65.2%  
Marat Safin                115        2  13.9%     65.2%  
Mardy Fish                 424        4  13.4%     65.6%  
David Nalbandian           259        2  19.7%     65.6%  
Feliciano Lopez            207        2  19.3%     66.2%  

(22) Jurgen Melzer         177        2  16.4%     66.7%  
(25) Fernando Gonzalez     185        2  16.8%     68.6%  
(27) Gael Monfils          651        6  15.4%     69.1%  
(29) Andy Roddick          466        5  20.0%     69.5%  
(32) Jo Wilfried Tsonga    227        2  13.2%     70.5%  
(40) Kevin Anderson        443        6  16.9%     71.6%  
(41) Ivo Karlovic          289        3  15.9%     71.6%  
(46) Lukasz Kubot          167        2  21.0%     73.1%  
(57) Alex Bogomolov Jr     221        3  23.1%     77.4%  
(63) Andrey Golubev        127        2   9.4%     84.3%

(De Bakker gets an asterisk because one of his two matches immediately followed Isner-Mahut, and John was playing injured.)

An interesting avenue for further research is whether return quality against Isner differs much from return quality against players in general.  Sure, Isner wins more points on serve and hits more aces, but looking at the list above, it doesn’t seem to differ much from a ranking of the game’s best returners.  For all of his uniqueness, he’s simply one very big server in a game full of big servers.  As he goes deeper in more tournaments, perhaps we’ll gain a better grasp of what players need to do to stop him.

2012 Miami Masters Projections

This week, the semifinals are swapped: If Federer is to continue his streak, he’ll need to go through Djokovic just to reach the final.  The most dangerous lower-ranked players seem to be well distributed throughout the draw: Del Potro would face Djokovic in the quarters; Roddick could hit Federer in the third; Raonic could face Murray in the third, and Isner is lurking in Nadal’s quarter.

If Fernando Gonzalez wants to make a run in his final tournament, he’ll have to go through Tomas Berdych in the second round–not exactly the easiest ask, even at the South American slam.

Here are the complete projections for the draw as it stands now, without qualifiers placed:

Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          100.0%  82.4%  71.6%    22.5%  
Leonardo Mayer              17.5%   0.9%   0.2%     0.0%  
Marcos Baghdatis            82.5%  16.8%  10.6%     0.4%  
Qualifier1                  49.9%  16.7%   2.0%     0.0%  
Qualifier2                  50.1%  16.5%   1.9%     0.0%  
(27)Viktor Troicki         100.0%  66.8%  13.7%     0.3%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(17)Richard Gasquet        100.0%  67.7%  42.0%     0.9%  
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe         55.5%  19.2%   9.0%     0.1%  
Flavio Cipolla              44.5%  13.1%   5.5%     0.0%  
Albert Ramos-Vinolas        42.0%  10.7%   2.7%     0.0%  
Qualifier3                  58.0%  18.6%   5.9%     0.0%  
(15)Feliciano Lopez        100.0%  70.6%  34.9%     0.4%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  100.0%  79.0%  57.1%     6.0%  
Lukasz Kubot                45.8%   9.0%   3.7%     0.0%  
Ivo Karlovic                54.2%  12.0%   5.2%     0.0%  
Igor Kunitsyn               42.4%   9.1%   1.6%     0.0%  
(WC)Jesse Levine            57.6%  16.0%   3.3%     0.0%  
(23)Marin Cilic            100.0%  74.9%  29.1%     0.7%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(30)Julien Benneteau       100.0%  61.7%  24.6%     0.2%  
Benjamin Becker             47.4%  17.5%   5.1%     0.0%  
Olivier Rochus              52.6%  20.8%   6.1%     0.0%  
Sergiy Stakhovsky           34.2%  10.4%   4.9%     0.0%  
Bernard Tomic               65.8%  30.0%  19.0%     0.5%  
(5)David Ferrer            100.0%  59.6%  40.4%     1.4%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(3)Roger Federer           100.0%  84.8%  66.5%    12.4%  
(WC)Ryan Harrison           77.5%  13.9%   6.5%     0.1%  
Potito Starace              22.5%   1.4%   0.3%     0.0%  
Alex Bogomolov              54.9%  18.9%   3.7%     0.0%  
Gilles Muller               45.1%  13.6%   2.3%     0.0%  
(31)Andy Roddick           100.0%  67.5%  20.6%     0.6%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(21)Juan Monaco            100.0%  61.3%  23.9%     0.3%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                 43.1%  15.1%   3.9%     0.0%  
Jarkko Nieminen             56.9%  23.6%   7.5%     0.0%  
Qualifier4                  31.8%   6.2%   2.3%     0.0%  
Ernests Gulbis              68.2%  23.7%  13.1%     0.2%  
(14)Gael Monfils           100.0%  70.1%  49.3%     2.6%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(12)Nicolas Almagro        100.0%  64.3%  36.5%     0.7%  
Qualifier5                  38.3%  11.1%   4.1%     0.0%  
Donald Young                61.7%  24.6%  11.6%     0.1%  
Qualifier6                  66.9%  20.1%   6.7%     0.0%  
Carlos Berlocq              33.1%   5.8%   1.2%     0.0%  
(20)Fernando Verdasco      100.0%  74.1%  40.0%     0.7%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(28)Kevin Anderson         100.0%  54.9%  24.6%     0.4%  
Sam Querrey                 59.2%  28.9%  12.5%     0.2%  
Matthew Ebden               40.8%  16.3%   5.8%     0.0%  
Qualifier7                  37.2%   8.2%   2.7%     0.0%  
Jeremy Chardy               62.8%  20.6%   9.3%     0.1%  
(8)Mardy Fish              100.0%  71.2%  45.1%     2.0%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(7)Tomas Berdych           100.0%  83.6%  65.0%     5.0%  
Nicolas Mahut               85.8%  15.9%   7.3%     0.0%  
(WC)Fernando Gonzalez       14.2%   0.5%   0.1%     0.0%  
Grigor Dimitrov             47.7%  35.6%  11.0%     0.1%  
Mikhail Kukushkin           52.3%  39.8%  13.2%     0.1%  
(29)Juan Ignacio Chela     100.0%  24.5%   3.4%     0.0%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(18)Alexandr Dolgopolov    100.0%  69.7%  35.0%     0.8%  
Qualifier8                  43.4%  11.8%   3.3%     0.0%  
(WC)Denis Kudla             56.6%  18.5%   6.2%     0.0%  
David Nalbandian            66.0%  34.0%  19.7%     0.6%  
Steve Darcis                34.0%  11.9%   4.9%     0.0%  
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        100.0%  54.1%  30.8%     0.8%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(13)Gilles Simon           100.0%  66.6%  41.5%     0.9%  
Qualifier9                  36.5%   9.4%   3.5%     0.0%  
Andreas Seppi               63.5%  24.0%  12.2%     0.1%  
Robin Haase                 58.0%  24.0%   9.3%     0.0%  
(WC)Marinko Matosevic       42.0%  14.0%   4.4%     0.0%  
(22)Jurgen Melzer          100.0%  62.0%  29.1%     0.3%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(26)Milos Raonic           100.0%  69.3%  23.2%     0.8%  
Dudi Sela                   59.0%  20.0%   4.3%     0.0%  
Qualifier10                 41.0%  10.7%   1.7%     0.0%  
Alejandro Falla             42.5%   6.0%   2.2%     0.0%  
Denis Istomin               57.5%  10.7%   4.6%     0.1%  
(4)Andy Murray             100.0%  83.3%  64.0%    12.0%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      100.0%  80.8%  57.6%     4.5%  
Qualifier11                 43.8%   7.4%   2.5%     0.0%  
Xavier Malisse              56.2%  11.8%   4.8%     0.0%  
Thomaz Bellucci             70.8%  28.9%   9.0%     0.1%  
Frederico Gil               29.2%   6.5%   1.1%     0.0%  
(32)Philipp Kohlschreiber  100.0%  64.5%  24.9%     0.4%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(19)Florian Mayer          100.0%  60.2%  27.7%     0.6%  
Philipp Petzschner          45.4%  17.0%   5.9%     0.0%  
Ivan Dodig                  54.6%  22.7%   8.7%     0.1%  
Nikolay Davydenko           59.5%  18.7%   8.4%     0.1%  
James Blake                 40.5%   9.7%   3.5%     0.0%  
(10)John Isner             100.0%  71.6%  45.8%     2.2%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(16)Kei Nishikori          100.0%  70.2%  44.6%     1.7%  
Ryan Sweeting               42.7%  11.3%   4.4%     0.0%  
Lukas Lacko                 57.3%  18.5%   8.4%     0.1%  
Michael Llodra              63.8%  27.7%  11.2%     0.1%  
Lukas Rosol                 36.2%  11.0%   3.1%     0.0%  
(24)Marcel Granollers      100.0%  61.3%  28.3%     0.4%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(25)Radek Stepanek         100.0%  64.8%  13.3%     0.1%  
Qualifier12                 75.1%  30.6%   4.8%     0.0%  
Tommy Haas                  24.9%   4.6%   0.3%     0.0%  
Pablo Andujar               28.6%   2.3%   0.9%     0.0%  
Santiago Giraldo            71.4%  12.7%   7.4%     0.1%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            100.0%  84.9%  73.3%    14.0%

2012 Indian Wells Projections: Quarterfinals

A couple of days ago, I wrote about how the cluster of players after the big four was itself cementing its hold on the next few ranking spots.  Since then, Ferrer, Berdych, and Tsonga have all lost.  Oops!

Of that group, only Juan Martin del Potro has survived, and according to my numbers, he poses a serious challenge to Roger Federer tomorrow.  But that isn’t the tightest match.  That honor goes to Isner/Simon, the most dramatic contrast of playing styles in the quarterfinals.  They’ve played once before, at last year’s US Open, when Isner won in four sets, including three tiebreaks.  It was even closer than it sounds–Simon won more than half of the points that day.

Here are the full odds for the rest of the tournament:

Player                       SF      F      W
(1)Novak Djokovic         84.8%  69.0%  44.5%
(12)Nicolas Almagro       15.2%   6.7%   1.6%
(13)Gilles Simon          48.1%  11.5%   3.4%
(11)John Isner            51.9%  12.8%   4.0%  

(9)Juan Martin Del Potro  44.6%  21.0%   8.9%
(3)Roger Federer          55.4%  29.2%  13.9%
David Nalbandian          23.3%   6.5%   1.8%
(2)Rafael Nadal           76.7%  43.2%  21.9%

2012 Indian Wells Projections: Round of 16

As big days in men’s tennis go, Super Wednesday at Indian Wells is right up there.  Six of the top ten are in action, along with ten other guys, some of whom belong here.  According to my simulations, it is increasingly Novak Djokovic’s tournament to win.  At the very least, it’s Novak’s quarterfinal to reach.

Player                       QF     SF      F      W  
(1)Novak Djokovic         95.6%  72.6%  60.6%  40.4%  
Pablo Andujar              4.4%   0.6%   0.1%   0.0%  
(12)Nicolas Almagro       31.4%   5.7%   2.7%   0.8%  
(7)Tomas Berdych          68.6%  21.1%  14.1%   6.3%  
                                                      
Ryan Harrison             39.7%  17.5%   3.2%   0.7%  
(13)Gilles Simon          60.3%  32.8%   8.0%   2.6%  
(11)John Isner            70.8%  39.5%  10.1%   3.4%  
(Q)Matthew Ebden          29.2%  10.1%   1.3%   0.2%  
                                                      
Player                       QF     SF      F      W  
Denis Istomin             23.4%   6.1%   1.5%   0.3%  
(9)Juan Martin Del Potro  76.6%  38.9%  19.2%   8.3%  
Thomaz Bellucci           17.5%   4.6%   0.9%   0.2%  
(3)Roger Federer          82.5%  50.4%  27.7%  13.5%  
                                                      
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     67.3%  30.4%  14.7%   6.0%  
David Nalbandian          32.7%   9.6%   3.0%   0.8%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov   25.0%  10.1%   3.3%   1.0%  
(2)Rafael Nadal           75.0%  49.9%  29.7%  15.3%

The Winter of Mardy Fish

Yesterday at Indian Wells, Mardy Fish lost to Matthew Ebden, an Australian counterpuncher barely ranked inside the top 100.  Ebden has played well since last fall, when he reached the quarters in Shanghai by beating Ryan Harrison and Gilles Simon, but that isn’t going to make Fish feel any better.  It’s been a disastrous few months for the American.

How disastrous?  Mardy’s loss yesterday was his 10th in his last 14 matches.  In that time, he’s beaten Andreas Seppi (by retirement), Andreas Beck, Gilles Muller, and Florian Mayer.  He’s lost to Ebden, Albano Olivetti, Alejandro Falla, and James Blake.  Not exactly top ten results.

Looking back through his last 15 months of results, though, it’s questionable whether he ever had what we think of as “top ten” results.  When the big four is winning everything, that leaves only crumbs for the rest, so men like Fish, Janko Tipsarevic, and Nicolas Almagro find themselves in the top ten simply by reaching a bunch of quarterfinals and winning a 250 or two.  It was evident at last year’s World Tour Finals: Fish, as the eight-seed, managed to take a set from both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal,  but went home without a single victory.  (In addition to the elite world of the top four, there seems also to be an elite world of five-through-seven.  David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Tomas Berdych seem to be on a different level than everyone else, with the exception of Juan Martin Del Potro.)

Fish’s most impressive results in all of 2011 were a quarterfinal at Wimbledon (he beat Berdych en route) and semis at Cincinnati and Miami.  (He beat Nadal in Cinci and Ferrer in Miami.)  It was easy to root for Mardy the comeback kid, but the number eight ranking seems to be his ceiling.  And with Tipsarevic, Del Potro, and John Isner chasing him down, a poor performance in Miami this year could mean he’ll never reach that peak again.

2012 Indian Wells Projections: Round of 32

Andy Murray is out, and the clear winner is … Novak Djokovic.  Djokovic’s chances of winning the tournament leapt to 36.2%, almost triple Nadal’s.  The Djokovic factor produces an interesting quirk: the only two players of the remaining 32 whose chances round to 0.0% play each other in the 3rd round.  One of them, of course, is guaranteed to reach the round of 16, but their chances of beating Djokovic (or Kevin Anderson, come to that) are awfully small.

Aside from the top seeds, there aren’t many overwhelming favorites this round, according to my odds.  It often seems to happen that way at Masters and even Grand Slam events–there’s a slew of compelling matchups in the third and fourth rounds, then in the quarters, we watch the top seeds rip apart guys outside of the top four.

Here are the odds for today’s and tomorrow’ matches:

Player                      R16     QF     SF        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic         85.8%  81.6%  64.4%    36.2%  
(29)Kevin Anderson        14.2%  10.8%   4.2%     0.5%  
Pablo Andujar             45.9%   3.2%   0.5%     0.0%  
Albert Ramos              54.1%   4.3%   0.8%     0.0%  
(12)Nicolas Almagro       58.4%  21.2%   5.1%     0.7%  
Santiago Giraldo          41.7%  12.0%   2.3%     0.2%  
(30)Andy Roddick          35.8%  20.8%   5.6%     1.0%  
(7)Tomas Berdych          64.2%  46.0%  17.0%     5.2%  

Player                      R16     QF     SF        W  
Guillermo Garcia Lopez    48.2%  16.8%   6.1%     0.3%  
Ryan Harrison             51.8%  19.1%   7.3%     0.4%  
(23)Stanislas Wawrinka    55.0%  36.4%  19.4%     2.4%  
(13)Gilles Simon          45.0%  27.6%  13.4%     1.4%  
(11)John Isner            57.3%  28.5%  15.3%     1.6%  
(22)Juan Monaco           42.7%  18.4%   8.6%     0.7%  
(Q)Matthew Ebden          24.2%   7.8%   2.6%     0.1%  
(8)Mardy Fish             75.8%  45.2%  27.4%     4.1%  

Player                      R16     QF     SF        W  
(5)David Ferrer           69.0%  32.2%  15.2%     2.5%  
Denis Istomin             31.0%   8.9%   2.7%     0.2%  
(19)Fernando Verdasco     30.6%  13.9%   5.3%     0.5%  
(9)Juan Martin Del Potro  69.4%  45.1%  25.3%     6.3%  
Nikolay Davydenko         57.8%  15.9%   5.4%     0.4%  
Thomaz Bellucci           42.3%   9.3%   2.6%     0.1%  
(27)Milos Raonic          31.2%  19.9%   8.9%     1.2%  
(3)Roger Federer          68.8%  54.8%  34.6%    10.3%  

Player                      R16     QF     SF        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     76.9%  50.1%  25.0%     5.9%  
(28)Radek Stepanek        23.1%   8.2%   2.0%     0.1%  
David Nalbandian          44.8%  17.6%   5.9%     0.7%  
(10)Janko Tipsarevic      55.2%  24.1%   9.3%     1.3%  
Marcos Baghdatis          53.5%  18.4%   8.5%     1.2%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov   46.5%  14.7%   6.3%     0.7%  
(26)Marcel Granollers     24.5%  11.4%   4.8%     0.6%  
(2)Rafael Nadal           75.5%  55.5%  38.1%    13.2%

Another Early Exit for Andy Murray

Last night, disaster befell Andy Murray again.  The only good thing you can say about his straight-set loss to 92nd-ranked Guillermo Garcia-Lopez is that it wasn’t quite the embarrassment of his losses to Donald Young and Alex Bogomolov one year ago.  Once again, it raises questions about whether Murray really belongs in the conversation with the rest of the big four.  After all, except for the odd disappointment from semi-injured Rafa, the other three guys aren’t losing in any first or second rounds.

Federer hasn’t lost to anyone outside the top 50 since Indian Wells in 2008, and that was to a comeback-trail Mardy Fish.  Nadal has been perfect against the top 50 since his own (probably injured) loss to Gigi in 2010–before that, you have to go back to Queen’s Club 2007.  Djokovic’s undefeated streak against the top 50 goes back to Queen’s Club 2010.

While it’s disappointing that Murray followed up such an impressive performance in Dubai with such a dud, let’s consider this in context.  Even counting Indian Wells last year, yesterday’s match was only Murray’s fifth loss to a player outside the top 20 (and third outside the top 50) since the beginning of 2011.  (He also lost to Thomaz Bellucci in Madrid and Kevin Anderson in Canada.)  Sure, this is the rung below Rafa/Roger/Novak, but the current level of top three-or-four dominance has raised the bar beyond any realistic expectations.

And perhaps most importantly, do these early exits really matter?  In the locker room, maybe, but what about in the rankings?  Murray trails Federer by 1,260 points.  If Andy had reached the semis in both Indian Wells and Miami last year (and remember, simply playing up to one’s seed can’t reasonably be expected), he would have 670 more points, barely cutting that lead in half.  Count the early exit at the Canada Masters as well and assume that he reached the semifinal there as well–still only 1005 additional points, and not enough to catch Federer.  (Though he would’ve held the #3 ranking before Fed’s win in Dubai.)

These counterfactuals are reminders that, given the current level of competition, it’s the big matches that really matter.  Winning a grand slam semifinal is worth almost as much as reaching the semis of two Masters events.  If Murray is to displace one of the top three, he’s much more likely to do so by winning a slam (or at least reaching more finals) than by simply playing up to his seed everywhere else.

2012 Indian Wells Projections: Field of 64

When I initially posted odds for Indian Wells, the qualifiers weren’t placed.  In the space of a couple days, the draw was filled out, and then most of the qualifiers were gone.  Frederico Gil, Marinko Matosevic, and Andrey Golubev got from qualifying to the second round, but they faced other qualifiers in the first round.  The only other qualifying survivor was Matthew Ebden, who advanced past the always-beatable Igor Kunitsyn.

With the big names, little has changed–after all, the top 32 have yet to play a match.  The simulation is just a little more nuanced, now that the actual rating of each player is included.

Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic         89.6%  75.8%  62.3%    25.8%  
(Q)Andrey Golubev         10.4%   4.1%   1.5%     0.0%  
Philipp Kohlschreiber     53.7%  11.4%   5.5%     0.3%  
(29)Kevin Anderson        46.3%   8.8%   3.9%     0.2%  
(18)Florian Mayer         82.7%  44.6%  12.4%     0.9%  
Pablo Andujar             17.3%   3.7%   0.3%     0.0%  
Albert Ramos              18.4%   4.7%   0.4%     0.0%  
Richard Gasquet           81.6%  47.0%  13.7%     1.1%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(12)Nicolas Almagro       51.3%  21.9%   9.0%     0.3%  
(WC)Sam Querrey           48.7%  19.9%   7.9%     0.2%  
Santiago Giraldo          28.6%  12.1%   4.0%     0.1%  
(17)Kei Nishikori         71.4%  46.1%  25.2%     2.2%  
(30)Andy Roddick          64.6%  27.3%  13.5%     0.6%  
Lukasz Kubot              35.4%  10.5%   3.8%     0.1%  
Sergiy Stakhovsky         24.8%  10.5%   3.8%     0.1%  
(7)Tomas Berdych          75.2%  51.7%  32.8%     3.8%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(4)Andy Murray            80.7%  62.3%  44.5%     9.7%  
Guillermo Garcia Lopez    19.3%   8.5%   3.3%     0.1%  
Ryan Harrison             44.2%  11.8%   4.8%     0.1%  
(25)Viktor Troicki        55.8%  17.4%   8.0%     0.3%  
(23)Stanislas Wawrinka    84.0%  50.8%  22.5%     1.9%  
(WC)Robby Ginepri         16.0%   3.8%   0.6%     0.0%  
Dudi Sela                 33.8%  11.8%   3.2%     0.0%  
(13)Gilles Simon          66.2%  33.6%  13.2%     0.8%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(11)John Isner            84.1%  52.4%  27.7%     1.5%  
(LL)Federico Gil          15.9%   3.9%   0.7%     0.0%  
Nicolas Mahut             34.4%  11.8%   3.8%     0.0%  
(22)Juan Monaco           65.6%  31.9%  14.7%     0.5%  
(32)Julien Benneteau      63.7%  26.7%  12.9%     0.4%  
(Q)Matthew Ebden          36.3%  10.7%   3.7%     0.0%  
Andreas Seppi             32.2%  16.3%   7.3%     0.1%  
(8)Mardy Fish             67.8%  46.3%  29.1%     2.4%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(5)David Ferrer           70.0%  51.3%  25.6%     2.1%  
Grigor Dimitrov           30.0%  16.5%   5.2%     0.1%  
Denis Istomin             73.6%  27.5%   8.9%     0.2%  
(31)Juan Ignacio Chela    26.4%   4.7%   0.7%     0.0%  
(19)Fernando Verdasco     65.3%  24.1%  12.1%     0.5%  
Ryan Sweeting             34.7%   8.6%   3.1%     0.0%  
(Q)Marinko Matosevic      14.3%   4.6%   1.3%     0.0%  
(9)Juan Martin Del Potro  85.7%  62.8%  43.2%     6.4%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(14)Gael Monfils          69.1%  48.2%  23.2%     2.7%  
Nikolay Davydenko         30.9%  15.8%   4.8%     0.1%  
Thomaz Bellucci           39.1%  11.8%   3.0%     0.0%  
(20)Jurgen Melzer         60.9%  24.2%   8.2%     0.3%  
(27)Milos Raonic          86.8%  32.7%  16.9%     1.1%  
Carlos Berlocq            13.2%   1.3%   0.2%     0.0%  
(WC)Denis Kudla           16.6%   6.0%   1.9%     0.0%  
(3)Roger Federer          83.4%  60.1%  41.8%     8.5%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     72.4%  56.4%  36.9%     4.8%  
Michael Llodra            27.6%  15.9%   6.7%     0.2%  
Xavier Malisse            47.2%  12.7%   4.3%     0.0%  
(28)Radek Stepanek        52.8%  15.0%   5.4%     0.1%  
(24)Marin Cilic           54.8%  30.7%  15.1%     0.8%  
David Nalbandian          45.2%  23.2%  10.3%     0.4%  
Gilles Muller             26.5%   7.6%   2.2%     0.0%  
(10)Janko Tipsarevic      73.5%  38.4%  19.2%     1.1%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(15)Feliciano Lopez       42.6%  21.8%   6.6%     0.3%  
Marcos Baghdatis          57.4%  33.5%  12.0%     0.9%  
Steve Darcis              35.9%  12.8%   2.9%     0.1%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov   64.1%  31.9%  10.6%     0.6%  
(26)Marcel Granollers     91.1%  25.9%  13.0%     0.7%  
Tommy Haas                 8.9%   0.4%   0.0%     0.0%  
Leonardo Mayer             7.4%   1.8%   0.4%     0.0%  
(2)Rafael Nadal           92.7%  71.9%  54.5%    14.3%