Author: jsackmann

2012 Miami Projections: Quarterfinals

For the second week in a row, Novak Djokovic gets the easy half, as someone cleared out his potential semifinal opponent.  In the other half, Andy Murray gets the easy quarter while Nadal has to get past Tsonga.  Here are my projections for these four matches and beyond:

Player                    SF      F      W  
(1)Novak Djokovic      76.5%  60.8%  38.5%  
(5)David Ferrer        23.5%  12.9%   4.5%  
(21)Juan Monaco        37.0%   7.5%   1.8%  
(8)Mardy Fish          63.0%  18.8%   6.6%  
                                            
(9)Janko Tipsarevic    27.1%   8.3%   2.5%  
(4)Andy Murray         72.9%  39.3%  20.4%  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga  38.7%  17.7%   7.4%  
(2)Rafael Nadal        61.3%  34.7%  18.3%

2012 Miami Projections: Fourth Round

Men’s tennis may be predictable these days, but it’s not that predictable.  Andy Roddick beat Roger Federer last night, handing Federer his first loss in a best-of-three since August, sending home the hottest player in the game.  (It’s also Fed’s first lost to anyone outside of the top 20 in almost two years. The last one was his 2010 loss to Lleyton Hewitt in Halle.) Federer’s exit makes life easier for Novak Djokovic, who would’ve faced Fed in the semis, and does an even bigger favor for Mardy Fish, who would’ve played Roger in the quarters.

11 of the top 16 seeds are still alive, but things have definitely gotten more interesting.

Player                        QF     SF      F      W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          80.5%  56.5%  45.4%  30.0%  
(17)Richard Gasquet        19.5%   7.2%   3.6%   1.2%  
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  62.6%  25.2%  17.1%   8.7%  
(5)David Ferrer            37.4%  11.1%   6.2%   2.4%  

(31)Andy Roddick           55.6%  25.6%   6.8%   2.2%  
(21)Juan Monaco            44.4%  18.0%   4.0%   1.1%  
(12)Nicolas Almagro        41.0%  21.0%   5.4%   1.6%  
(8)Mardy Fish              59.0%  35.5%  11.5%   4.5%  

Player                        QF     SF      F      W  
Grigor Dimitrov            35.3%   7.7%   1.8%   0.4%  
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        64.7%  21.5%   7.4%   2.5%  
(13)Gilles Simon           27.0%  14.9%   5.2%   1.7%  
(4)Andy Murray             73.0%  55.9%  32.5%  17.9%  

(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      65.4%  29.2%  14.9%   6.7%  
(19)Florian Mayer          34.6%  10.5%   3.8%   1.2%  
(16)Kei Nishikori          31.4%  14.9%   6.5%   2.5%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            68.6%  45.4%  27.9%  15.5%

The Unaceables

Last night, Florian Mayer solved the John Isner serve, breaking the American three times en route to a straight-set victory.  Mayer is known as a tricky opponent, but not as a particularly good returner.  He had never played Isner before, though he beat Ivo Karlovic in Miami last year.

One element of his success is that he got his racquet on the Isner serve.  Over the last 52 weeks, Isner has amassed a 17.1% ace rate, meaning that about one in six of his serves are untouchable.  Last night, he barely managed 10%, as Mayer allowed him only six aces.

We might wonder: Is this is a skill of Mayer’s that we’ve failed to notice before?  At first glance, it doesn’t appear to be.  While Mayer often holds his opponents to low ace numbers, he’s had some horrible performances in that department, allowing Feliciano Lopez a 20.4% ace rate in Shanghai last year, Thomaz Bellucci 15.5% in Madrid on clay, and while playing injured, he ignominiously allowed Ivo Karlovic a 50% ace rate at last year’s Cincinnati Masters.

We can answer this question not just for Mayer, but for every regular on the ATP tour.  While some servers hit far more aces than others, ace rate is influenced by both the server and the returner.  Mayer himself is a good example.  In the last 52 weeks, he’s had eight matches in which at least one in ten serves went for an ace.  But in five other matches, he didn’t hit a single one!  Some of the variation is due to good and bad serving performances, but a substantial part can be explained by the man on the other side of the net.

As  it turns out, last night was an aberration for the German.  Mayer is below-average at ace prevention, allowing 8% more aces than an average player, ranking 80th among the 139 active players whose results I analyzed.

I looked at every 2011 and 2012 match, using only those matches in which both players racked up 10 matches in the last fifteen months.  After calculating each player’s ace rate, I generated an “expected” number of aces for each returner.  Simply tallying how many aces a player allowed isn’t good enough–this way, we adjust for the quality of the server.

Mayer, for instance, played 70 matches in that span against opponents who also played at least 10 matches.  (I excluded guys who played fewer than 10 because their ace rate in such a small number of matches may say more about their opponents than themselves.)  In his 4812 return points, he allowed 345 aces.  But based on the serving abilities of his opponents, he should have allowed only 321.  Those numbers will look a little better after last night, but not enough to move him up very much in the rankings.

By contrast, the best returners get their racquets on just about everything.  Atop the list is Gael Monfils, who allows barely half the aces that we would expect him to.  The top eight returners all reduce expected ace rates by at least a third.

In the table below, I’ve shown these stats for the ten players who appear to be the best at avoiding aces, along with 20 other players of interest.

Player                 Rank  Matches  vAce%  expAce%    Diff  
Gael Monfils              1       62   3.5%     6.8%    -48%  
Benoit Paire              2       23   3.8%     6.3%    -40%  
Andy Murray               3       81   4.4%     7.3%    -39%  
Stanislas Wawrinka        4       61   4.2%     7.0%    -39%  
Cedrik Marcel Stebe       5       12   3.2%     5.2%    -38%  
Viktor Troicki            6       70   4.3%     7.0%    -38%  
Gilles Simon              7       77   4.7%     7.3%    -36%  
David Ferrer              8       90   5.1%     7.8%    -35%  
Carlos Berlocq            9       53   4.7%     7.0%    -32%  
Mardy Fish               10       71   5.7%     8.3%    -31%  

Jo Wilfried Tsonga       14       89   5.7%     7.9%    -28%  
Roger Federer            20       92   6.0%     7.9%    -24%  
Novak Djokovic           22       89   6.4%     8.4%    -24%  
Kei Nishikori            32       63   5.8%     7.0%    -17%  
Rafael Nadal             34       91   7.4%     8.8%    -16%  
Nikolay Davydenko        38       60   5.8%     6.7%    -14%  
Sam Querrey              39       35   6.7%     7.8%    -14%  
Milos Raonic             40       60   6.7%     7.6%    -12%  
Kevin Anderson           53       74   7.5%     8.0%     -6%  
John Isner               59       68   7.6%     7.8%     -2%  

Radek Stepanek           73       62   8.6%     8.0%      6%  
Lukasz Kubot             74       44   8.5%     8.0%      7%  
Ivo Karlovic             78       45   7.9%     7.3%      7%  
Juan Martin Del Potro    81       84   8.8%     8.1%      9%  
Tomas Berdych            91       87   8.5%     7.6%     12%  
David Nalbandian        102       43   9.4%     7.9%     20%  
Arnaud Clement          120       17   9.3%     7.2%     29%  
Andy Roddick            130       55  11.8%     8.3%     42%  
Bernard Tomic           135       38  12.8%     8.5%     50%  
Olivier Rochus          139       36  14.7%     7.2%    103%

Before we go anointing Monfils and Benoit Paire the greatest returners in the game, it’s important to remember the serious limitations of the ace stat.  Much more important is getting the return in play.  But except for Grand Slam matches, we don’t have those numbers. In the meantime, we can use ace rate and return points won as proxies for return skills.

2012 Miami Projections: 3rd Round

The 2nd round went almost precisely according to script, leaving us with some high-profile matchups for a mere third round.  The closest third-rounders on paper (my paper, anyway) are Almagro/Verdasco and Tipsarevic/Dolgopolov.  While Federer and (particularly) Murray have big-serving challenges this round, Djokovic and Nadal are set to coast.  The only question is: How many games will Novak allow Troicki to win this time?

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          85.0%  70.8%  52.1%    25.2%  
(27)Viktor Troicki         15.0%   7.3%   2.5%     0.2%  
(17)Richard Gasquet        79.2%  20.0%   8.4%     1.1%  
Albert Ramos               20.8%   1.9%   0.3%     0.0%  
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  67.7%  45.2%  20.0%     6.0%  
(23)Marin Cilic            32.3%  15.9%   4.7%     0.6%  
(30)Julien Benneteau       36.1%  11.0%   2.6%     0.2%  
(5)David Ferrer            63.9%  27.9%   9.4%     1.6%  

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W  
(3)Roger Federer           75.0%  52.3%  38.6%    12.3%  
(31)Andy Roddick           25.0%  11.1%   5.4%     0.5%  
(21)Juan Monaco            33.2%   9.0%   3.9%     0.3%  
(14)Gael Monfils           66.8%  27.7%  16.8%     2.9%  
(12)Nicolas Almagro        50.8%  23.0%   7.5%     0.7%  
(20)Fernando Verdasco      49.2%  21.8%   7.0%     0.6%  
(28)Kevin Anderson         38.7%  18.7%   5.8%     0.5%  
(8)Mardy Fish              61.3%  36.5%  15.0%     2.2%  

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W  
(7)Tomas Berdych           74.7%  47.0%  23.3%     4.7%  
Grigor Dimitrov            25.3%   9.0%   2.2%     0.1%  
(18)Alexandr Dolgopolov    48.8%  21.1%   7.8%     0.8%  
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        51.2%  23.0%   8.7%     1.0%  
(13)Gilles Simon           57.8%  19.2%   8.8%     1.0%  
(22)Jurgen Melzer          42.2%  11.3%   4.3%     0.3%  
(26)Milos Raonic           27.1%  14.5%   6.8%     0.8%  
(4)Andy Murray             72.9%  54.9%  38.1%    12.1%  

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      68.1%  40.5%  19.5%     4.4%  
(32)Philipp Kohlschreiber  31.9%  13.1%   4.2%     0.4%  
(19)Florian Mayer          39.8%  16.2%   5.5%     0.6%  
(10)John Isner             60.2%  30.2%  13.0%     2.4%  
(16)Kei Nishikori          77.3%  29.0%  14.1%     2.3%  
Lukas Rosol                22.7%   3.9%   0.9%     0.0%  
(25)Radek Stepanek         16.0%   5.7%   1.6%     0.1%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            84.0%  61.5%  41.2%    13.9%

Seeds Firmly Planted

Italian translation at settesei.it

Unless seeds withdraw at the last minute, every 2nd round match at Indian Wells and Miami is between a seed and a non-seed.  While byes are by no means limited to these two events, Indian Wells and Miami are the only ones that offer us 32 matches pittting a seeded favorite against an unseeded underdog.

Of course, for a variety of reasons, from surface to health to lucky bounces, the favorites don’t always win.  But over the last two days at Crandon Park, it has felt like they do.  All 32 seeds showed up ready to play, and 29 of them advanced to the third round.  Only Juan Ignacio Chela, Feliciano Lopez, and Marcel Granollers lost.

Cue the chorus: That’s got to be some kind of record, right?

Indeed it is, at least back to 1991, which is the current extent of my database.  Miami has had the 96-player draw with 32 seeds (and 32 byes) back to 1986, while Indian Wells got into the act in 2004.  That gives us 30 past tournaments in my database, including last week’s event at Indian Wells, for the 2012 Miami Masters to measure up against.

On average, seeds win approximately two-thirds of their 2nd-round matches in these 96-player draws.  (At tour-level events in general, seeds win 70% of their matches against unseeded players.)  In a typical event, then, 21 or 22 seeds advance to the third round.  As it turns out, that’s what happened last week at Indian Wells–21 wins, 10 losses, one withdrawal.

This week’s 29 seeded winners doesn’t just set a new record–it blows away the old mark.  Three years ago, 25 seeds advanced to the third round in Miami.  In 2008, the same number advanced in Indian Wells, and that’s the best the seeds have ever done.  Five other times (including last year at Indian Wells), 24 seeds advanced.  At the other extreme, the 1997 Miami event was a bloodbath, with only half of the seeds advancing.

It’s remarkable enough that this many seeds won for the first time in 31 tournaments.  But the odds are far lower than that.  Using my projections for the second round–which, of course, aren’t perfect, and may slightly underestimate the odds of the top few players advancing–there was only a 0.37% chance that 29 or more seeds would win their first matches.  That’s roughly 1 in 270.

So, if you were watching yesterday, you were witnessing history.  Rather boring history, but a rare event nonetheless.

2012 Miami Projections: 2nd Round

Every 2nd-rounder in Miami is between a seed and a non-seed, so we’re on full-time upset watch for the next two days.  (Barring withdrawals, anyway.)  There are plenty to keep an eye out for:

  • Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Viktor Troicki.  Troicki has never been a very convincing seed, and GGL is coming off of a big win over Andy Murray at Indian Wells.  Qualifiers don’t come any tougher than the Spainard.
  • Bernard Tomic vs David Ferrer.  The surface is on Tomic’s side; everything else tilts to Ferrer.  But my algorithm like’s the Aussie’s chances, setting the match awfully close to equal.
  • Nicolas Almagro vs David Goffin. 62/38 usually doesn’t qualify as an upset-in-the-making.  This one’s closer than I would’ve expected, thanks to Almagro’s inconsistency on hardcourts.  Goffin doesn’t have much in the way of weapons, but that didn’t stop him from taking out Donald Young yesterday.
  • Kevin Anderson vs Sam Querrey.  Almost dead-even.  As if you didn’t already one this one would be decided in two or three tiebreaks.
  • David Nalbandian vs Janko Tipsarevic. In case you ever need an example of when ATP rankings aren’t enough.  My algorithm gives Nalbandian the slight edge; I have to imagine that any fan would give the Argentine a bigger one.
  • Nikolay Davydenko vs John Isner.  I have this one set at 69/31 in Isner’s favor, but Davydenko does have the sort of game that gives the big man trouble.

Here’s the full table:

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          79.9%  68.5%  57.5%    21.5%  
Marcos Baghdatis           20.1%  12.1%   7.0%     0.5%  
(q)Guillermo Garcia Lopez  46.0%   8.3%   3.8%     0.1%  
(27)Viktor Troicki         54.0%  11.0%   5.4%     0.2%  
(17)Richard Gasquet        65.6%  40.8%  12.6%     0.9%  
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe        34.4%  16.3%   3.3%     0.1%  
Albert Ramos               25.6%   6.5%   0.8%     0.0%  
(15)Feliciano Lopez        74.4%  36.4%   9.5%     0.4%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  77.9%  56.3%  38.7%     6.0%  
Ivo Karlovic               22.1%   9.8%   3.8%     0.1%  
Igor Kunitsyn              22.3%   3.7%   0.9%     0.0%  
(23)Marin Cilic            77.7%  30.3%  15.6%     0.8%  
(30)Julien Benneteau       63.0%  24.0%   8.3%     0.2%  
Benjamin Becker            37.0%   9.8%   2.5%     0.0%  
Bernard Tomic              45.7%  29.3%  12.7%     0.7%  
(5)David Ferrer            54.3%  36.9%  17.6%     1.3%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(3)Roger Federer           81.7%  64.4%  46.7%    12.2%  
(WC)Ryan Harrison          18.3%   8.4%   3.2%     0.1%  
Gilles Muller              30.2%   5.3%   1.6%     0.0%  
(31)Andy Roddick           69.8%  21.9%  10.5%     0.6%  
(21)Juan Monaco            65.0%  26.0%   8.0%     0.3%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                35.0%   9.4%   1.9%     0.0%  
(q)Sergei Bubka            18.9%   7.0%   1.4%     0.0%  
(14)Gael Monfils           81.1%  57.6%  26.6%     3.2%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(12)Nicolas Almagro        62.1%  35.3%  17.3%     0.7%  
(q)David Goffin            37.9%  17.3%   6.3%     0.1%  
(q)Bjorn Phau              24.9%   7.1%   1.8%     0.0%  
(20)Fernando Verdasco      75.1%  40.2%  19.1%     0.7%  
(28)Kevin Anderson         51.3%  23.3%  12.1%     0.4%  
Sam Querrey                48.7%  21.6%  11.0%     0.3%  
(q)Frank Dancevic          23.9%   8.1%   2.9%     0.0%  
(8)Mardy Fish              76.1%  47.1%  29.5%     2.1%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(7)Tomas Berdych           81.5%  63.9%  40.1%     4.6%  
Nicolas Mahut              18.5%   8.8%   2.5%     0.0%  
Grigor Dimitrov            74.3%  23.6%   8.6%     0.1%  
(29)Juan Ignacio Chela     25.7%   3.7%   0.6%     0.0%  
(18)Alexandr Dolgopolov    83.4%  40.1%  19.0%     1.0%  
(q)Antonio Veic            16.6%   2.5%   0.4%     0.0%  
David Nalbandian           51.3%  29.6%  15.0%     0.9%  
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        48.7%  27.8%  13.7%     0.7%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(13)Gilles Simon           73.8%  45.2%  16.6%     1.1%  
(q)Roberto Bautista Agut   26.2%   9.5%   1.8%     0.0%  
Robin Haase                40.9%  16.4%   3.7%     0.1%  
(22)Jurgen Melzer          59.1%  28.9%   8.8%     0.3%  
(26)Milos Raonic           79.5%  26.2%  15.1%     0.9%  
(q)Arnaud Clement          20.5%   2.7%   0.7%     0.0%  
Alejandro Falla            14.1%   5.2%   2.0%     0.0%  
(4)Andy Murray             85.9%  65.9%  51.4%    12.6%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      79.2%  57.5%  36.3%     4.6%  
Xavier Malisse             20.8%   8.8%   2.7%     0.0%  
Frederico Gil              22.4%   3.7%   0.7%     0.0%  
(32)Philipp Kohlschreiber  77.6%  30.1%  13.6%     0.5%  
(19)Florian Mayer          58.7%  26.8%  12.0%     0.6%  
Ivan Dodig                 41.3%  15.7%   5.8%     0.1%  
Nikolay Davydenko          31.4%  14.0%   5.1%     0.1%  
(10)John Isner             68.6%  43.5%  23.7%     2.2%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(16)Kei Nishikori          67.7%  44.1%  18.9%     1.7%  
Lukas Lacko                32.3%  15.3%   4.3%     0.1%  
Lukas Rosol                30.8%   8.6%   1.8%     0.0%  
(24)Marcel Granollers      69.2%  32.0%  11.0%     0.5%  
(25)Radek Stepanek         81.6%  17.4%   6.4%     0.1%  
Tommy Haas                 18.4%   1.1%   0.1%     0.0%  
Santiago Giraldo           17.9%  10.6%   4.4%     0.1%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            82.2%  70.9%  53.1%    13.2%

Why the ATP is More Popular Than the WTA

Last night, Fernando Gonzalez played the last match of his career.  Gonzo is a fan favorite, with a historically great forehand that propelled him to finals at the 2007 Australian Open and the 2008 Olympics.  He won tour-level titles over a ten-year span.

Next month, the man in the limelight will be Ivan Ljubicic.  He doesn’t exactly qualify as a “fan favorite,” but tennis aficionados have grown to appreciate his deadly service accuracy, beautiful one-handed backhand, and intelligence on and off the court.

Men’s tennis is in the age of the veteran.  Even though we’re talking about 20-somethings and a few 30-year-olds, virtually every player at the top of the game five years ago is still in the mix today.  With the exception of Andre Agassi, every top-ranked player from the ten years is still active.

And fans love veterans.  The current state of the ATP is tailor-made for fan interest.

There are two things going on here.  One is simply a matter of familiarity.  If you lost interest in tennis for the last five years, you might be surprised to find Mario Ancic out of the game, Arnaud Clement still in it, and Andy Roddick well out of the top ten, but the cast of characters would be immediately recognizable.  It’s like a television soap opera–you only have to watch an episode or two before you’re back in the swing of things.

The other factor is what we might call the “Agassi effect.”  In the late 80’s and early 90’s, Agassi was the stereotypical brash youngster, offending the effete and challenging Wimbledon’s all-white rule.  A decade and a half later, he was perhaps the most popular player in the game, the very picture of sportsmanship and class.  Few players undergo such a radical transformation in the eyes of the public, but the general direction is very common.

Only a few years ago, Rafael Nadal was a divisive figure, mocked by many for his sleeveless tops and bulging biceps.  More recently, Novak Djokovic was widely disliked.  I’m sure detractors are still out there, but they are much quieter.  Think back to the early days of just about any veteran’s career–Andy Roddick was exciting to American fans, objectionable to most everybody else.  Lleyton Hewitt was another Agassi, and he didn’t grow out of it as quickly.

Yet for all that, can you think of a player who has gotten less popular as he ages?  Perhaps this phenomenon is unique to individual sports.  In team sports, some figures seem to attract fans, but others lose them, as they sign mega-contracts with new teams, becoming viewed as sellouts.  (Or worse, if they take the mega-contract, then never perform as well again.)

The phenomenon of gaining fans with age isn’t limited to men–veteran WTA players experience it, as well.  It seems like Kim Clijsters was better loved upon her return to the game than she was the day she retired.  Even the Williams sisters seem to have fewer detractors these days than they did several years ago.  But while the WTA has its share of vets, it has far fewer players who have persisted at the top of the game.

Only two players from the 2007 year-end top ten (Maria Sharapova and Marion Bartoli) are in the top ten of today’s WTA rankings.  Most of the WTA’s vets have hung around on the fringes of the game’s best for years.  Li Na, Sam Stosur, and Vera Zvonareva have all given us their share of highlights, but to extend my soap opera analogy, they are peripheral characters who star in a few episodes, only to disappear into the background again.  Someone who hasn’t watched women’s tennis for a few years would have a hard time catching up.

Of course, none of this is to say that men’s tennis is inherently better.  At various times in the past, the WTA has had a stronger stable of perennial stars, and when that is the case, it rakes in the ratings.  Victoria Azarenka may not be as obviously bankable as a charmer like Caroline Wozniacki or a cover girl like Maria Sharapova, but by winning consistently, she gives the women’s game a head start toward developing what the ATP possesses right now.  If a few other players rise to the challenge for more than a couple months at a time, we might do more than just talk about Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal all the time.

Who Can Stop John Isner?

Last week, John Isner beat world number one Novak Djokovic.  Earlier this year, the victim was Roger Federer.  At least year’s French Open, Rafael Nadal had to go to five sets to eliminate the big man.  Between Isner’s massive serve and the general improvement in his game, it seems that he can beat anybody.

To beat big John, you need either a strong return game or solid tiebreaker skills.  Ideally, you’d have both.  (The only alternatives are to catch him on an off-day or to play him on a slow clay court.)  Let’s take a look at how opponents have fared against the Isner serve over the course of his career.

One surprising indicator of return prowess is ace-rate-against.  We tend to think of ace rate as a function only of the server’s ability, perhaps coupled with surface speed.   But returner’s have plenty to say about it, too.  Simply looking at Isner’s 17 tour-level matches this year, we see a remarkable range of ace rates, from 36.6% of points against Gilles Muller in Memphis down to 5.6% against Federer in Indian Wells.  Surface plays a role, as do a variety of other factors (maybe Isner was tired after beating Djokovic in the semifinal last week), but some players are considerably better than others at getting the ball back in play.

A thorough look at that phenomenon is a subject for another day.  There’s plenty to do simply comparing performances against Isner.  As I’ve noted before, a big serve doesn’t necessarily make a player more unpredictable, though of course such a weapon might make him a better player.

63 players have faced Isner at least twice in tour-level events.  Of those, the most effective has been Lleyton Hewitt, holding Isner’s ace rate under 10% and winning almost half of Isner’s serve points.  However, the most recent of those two matches was almost two years ago.  Still, it’s not surprising to see a world-class counterpuncher atop this list–Hewitt limits aces and service holds against just about everybody.

We find more of the same near the top of the list, with Juan Ignacio Chela, Gilles Simon, and Nikolay Davydenko all in the top 10, ranked by the rate of return points won.  Height might also help in handling the physics-defying bounces of the Isner serve: both Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro are among the top 15, though some other tall guys (Kevin Anderson and Ivo Karlovic are shown below) have generally weak return games, so the argument doesn’t seem to apply to them.

The unexpected contrast on this list is to find Nadal several spots below Djokovic, Federer, and Andy Murray.  Nadal allows about the same ace rate as Djokovic and Murray, but he doesn’t perform as well on the balls he gets back in play.  One popular theory is that because of his height, Isner is able to neutralize some of Rafa’s spin.  Regardless of the reason why, it’s even more unexpected to see Rafa so far down the list, since two of the three Nadal-Isner matches have taken place on clay.

Here are some of the raw results for players who have faced Isner two or more times.  I’ve shown the 20 opponents who have won the most return points, along with ten other notable players, whose ranks (out of 63) are shown in parenthesis.

Opponent                 SvPts  Matches   Ace%  SvPtsWon  
Lleyton Hewitt             124        2   8.9%     53.2%  
Tomas Berdych              300        3  11.7%     57.7%  
Thiemo De Bakker*          165        2   9.1%     60.0%  
Mikhail Youzhny            258        2  16.3%     61.6%  
Juan Ignacio Chela         269        3   6.7%     62.1%  
Novak Djokovic             191        2  14.1%     62.3%  
Andy Murray                224        2  13.8%     62.5%  
Roger Federer              243        3  11.5%     63.0%  
Gilles Simon               244        2  15.2%     63.9%  
Nikolay Davydenko          248        3  18.5%     64.1%  

David Ferrer               326        4  14.7%     64.4%  
Viktor Troicki             234        3   9.0%     64.5%  
Juan Martin Del Potro      201        3  16.4%     64.7%  
Robin Haase                233        2  15.0%     64.8%  
Rafael Nadal               336        3  13.7%     64.9%  
Richard Gasquet            221        2  19.0%     65.2%  
Marat Safin                115        2  13.9%     65.2%  
Mardy Fish                 424        4  13.4%     65.6%  
David Nalbandian           259        2  19.7%     65.6%  
Feliciano Lopez            207        2  19.3%     66.2%  

(22) Jurgen Melzer         177        2  16.4%     66.7%  
(25) Fernando Gonzalez     185        2  16.8%     68.6%  
(27) Gael Monfils          651        6  15.4%     69.1%  
(29) Andy Roddick          466        5  20.0%     69.5%  
(32) Jo Wilfried Tsonga    227        2  13.2%     70.5%  
(40) Kevin Anderson        443        6  16.9%     71.6%  
(41) Ivo Karlovic          289        3  15.9%     71.6%  
(46) Lukasz Kubot          167        2  21.0%     73.1%  
(57) Alex Bogomolov Jr     221        3  23.1%     77.4%  
(63) Andrey Golubev        127        2   9.4%     84.3%

(De Bakker gets an asterisk because one of his two matches immediately followed Isner-Mahut, and John was playing injured.)

An interesting avenue for further research is whether return quality against Isner differs much from return quality against players in general.  Sure, Isner wins more points on serve and hits more aces, but looking at the list above, it doesn’t seem to differ much from a ranking of the game’s best returners.  For all of his uniqueness, he’s simply one very big server in a game full of big servers.  As he goes deeper in more tournaments, perhaps we’ll gain a better grasp of what players need to do to stop him.

2012 Miami Masters Projections

This week, the semifinals are swapped: If Federer is to continue his streak, he’ll need to go through Djokovic just to reach the final.  The most dangerous lower-ranked players seem to be well distributed throughout the draw: Del Potro would face Djokovic in the quarters; Roddick could hit Federer in the third; Raonic could face Murray in the third, and Isner is lurking in Nadal’s quarter.

If Fernando Gonzalez wants to make a run in his final tournament, he’ll have to go through Tomas Berdych in the second round–not exactly the easiest ask, even at the South American slam.

Here are the complete projections for the draw as it stands now, without qualifiers placed:

Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          100.0%  82.4%  71.6%    22.5%  
Leonardo Mayer              17.5%   0.9%   0.2%     0.0%  
Marcos Baghdatis            82.5%  16.8%  10.6%     0.4%  
Qualifier1                  49.9%  16.7%   2.0%     0.0%  
Qualifier2                  50.1%  16.5%   1.9%     0.0%  
(27)Viktor Troicki         100.0%  66.8%  13.7%     0.3%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(17)Richard Gasquet        100.0%  67.7%  42.0%     0.9%  
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe         55.5%  19.2%   9.0%     0.1%  
Flavio Cipolla              44.5%  13.1%   5.5%     0.0%  
Albert Ramos-Vinolas        42.0%  10.7%   2.7%     0.0%  
Qualifier3                  58.0%  18.6%   5.9%     0.0%  
(15)Feliciano Lopez        100.0%  70.6%  34.9%     0.4%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  100.0%  79.0%  57.1%     6.0%  
Lukasz Kubot                45.8%   9.0%   3.7%     0.0%  
Ivo Karlovic                54.2%  12.0%   5.2%     0.0%  
Igor Kunitsyn               42.4%   9.1%   1.6%     0.0%  
(WC)Jesse Levine            57.6%  16.0%   3.3%     0.0%  
(23)Marin Cilic            100.0%  74.9%  29.1%     0.7%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(30)Julien Benneteau       100.0%  61.7%  24.6%     0.2%  
Benjamin Becker             47.4%  17.5%   5.1%     0.0%  
Olivier Rochus              52.6%  20.8%   6.1%     0.0%  
Sergiy Stakhovsky           34.2%  10.4%   4.9%     0.0%  
Bernard Tomic               65.8%  30.0%  19.0%     0.5%  
(5)David Ferrer            100.0%  59.6%  40.4%     1.4%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(3)Roger Federer           100.0%  84.8%  66.5%    12.4%  
(WC)Ryan Harrison           77.5%  13.9%   6.5%     0.1%  
Potito Starace              22.5%   1.4%   0.3%     0.0%  
Alex Bogomolov              54.9%  18.9%   3.7%     0.0%  
Gilles Muller               45.1%  13.6%   2.3%     0.0%  
(31)Andy Roddick           100.0%  67.5%  20.6%     0.6%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(21)Juan Monaco            100.0%  61.3%  23.9%     0.3%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                 43.1%  15.1%   3.9%     0.0%  
Jarkko Nieminen             56.9%  23.6%   7.5%     0.0%  
Qualifier4                  31.8%   6.2%   2.3%     0.0%  
Ernests Gulbis              68.2%  23.7%  13.1%     0.2%  
(14)Gael Monfils           100.0%  70.1%  49.3%     2.6%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(12)Nicolas Almagro        100.0%  64.3%  36.5%     0.7%  
Qualifier5                  38.3%  11.1%   4.1%     0.0%  
Donald Young                61.7%  24.6%  11.6%     0.1%  
Qualifier6                  66.9%  20.1%   6.7%     0.0%  
Carlos Berlocq              33.1%   5.8%   1.2%     0.0%  
(20)Fernando Verdasco      100.0%  74.1%  40.0%     0.7%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(28)Kevin Anderson         100.0%  54.9%  24.6%     0.4%  
Sam Querrey                 59.2%  28.9%  12.5%     0.2%  
Matthew Ebden               40.8%  16.3%   5.8%     0.0%  
Qualifier7                  37.2%   8.2%   2.7%     0.0%  
Jeremy Chardy               62.8%  20.6%   9.3%     0.1%  
(8)Mardy Fish              100.0%  71.2%  45.1%     2.0%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(7)Tomas Berdych           100.0%  83.6%  65.0%     5.0%  
Nicolas Mahut               85.8%  15.9%   7.3%     0.0%  
(WC)Fernando Gonzalez       14.2%   0.5%   0.1%     0.0%  
Grigor Dimitrov             47.7%  35.6%  11.0%     0.1%  
Mikhail Kukushkin           52.3%  39.8%  13.2%     0.1%  
(29)Juan Ignacio Chela     100.0%  24.5%   3.4%     0.0%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(18)Alexandr Dolgopolov    100.0%  69.7%  35.0%     0.8%  
Qualifier8                  43.4%  11.8%   3.3%     0.0%  
(WC)Denis Kudla             56.6%  18.5%   6.2%     0.0%  
David Nalbandian            66.0%  34.0%  19.7%     0.6%  
Steve Darcis                34.0%  11.9%   4.9%     0.0%  
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        100.0%  54.1%  30.8%     0.8%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(13)Gilles Simon           100.0%  66.6%  41.5%     0.9%  
Qualifier9                  36.5%   9.4%   3.5%     0.0%  
Andreas Seppi               63.5%  24.0%  12.2%     0.1%  
Robin Haase                 58.0%  24.0%   9.3%     0.0%  
(WC)Marinko Matosevic       42.0%  14.0%   4.4%     0.0%  
(22)Jurgen Melzer          100.0%  62.0%  29.1%     0.3%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(26)Milos Raonic           100.0%  69.3%  23.2%     0.8%  
Dudi Sela                   59.0%  20.0%   4.3%     0.0%  
Qualifier10                 41.0%  10.7%   1.7%     0.0%  
Alejandro Falla             42.5%   6.0%   2.2%     0.0%  
Denis Istomin               57.5%  10.7%   4.6%     0.1%  
(4)Andy Murray             100.0%  83.3%  64.0%    12.0%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      100.0%  80.8%  57.6%     4.5%  
Qualifier11                 43.8%   7.4%   2.5%     0.0%  
Xavier Malisse              56.2%  11.8%   4.8%     0.0%  
Thomaz Bellucci             70.8%  28.9%   9.0%     0.1%  
Frederico Gil               29.2%   6.5%   1.1%     0.0%  
(32)Philipp Kohlschreiber  100.0%  64.5%  24.9%     0.4%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(19)Florian Mayer          100.0%  60.2%  27.7%     0.6%  
Philipp Petzschner          45.4%  17.0%   5.9%     0.0%  
Ivan Dodig                  54.6%  22.7%   8.7%     0.1%  
Nikolay Davydenko           59.5%  18.7%   8.4%     0.1%  
James Blake                 40.5%   9.7%   3.5%     0.0%  
(10)John Isner             100.0%  71.6%  45.8%     2.2%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(16)Kei Nishikori          100.0%  70.2%  44.6%     1.7%  
Ryan Sweeting               42.7%  11.3%   4.4%     0.0%  
Lukas Lacko                 57.3%  18.5%   8.4%     0.1%  
Michael Llodra              63.8%  27.7%  11.2%     0.1%  
Lukas Rosol                 36.2%  11.0%   3.1%     0.0%  
(24)Marcel Granollers      100.0%  61.3%  28.3%     0.4%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(25)Radek Stepanek         100.0%  64.8%  13.3%     0.1%  
Qualifier12                 75.1%  30.6%   4.8%     0.0%  
Tommy Haas                  24.9%   4.6%   0.3%     0.0%  
Pablo Andujar               28.6%   2.3%   0.9%     0.0%  
Santiago Giraldo            71.4%  12.7%   7.4%     0.1%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            100.0%  84.9%  73.3%    14.0%

2012 Indian Wells Projections: Quarterfinals

A couple of days ago, I wrote about how the cluster of players after the big four was itself cementing its hold on the next few ranking spots.  Since then, Ferrer, Berdych, and Tsonga have all lost.  Oops!

Of that group, only Juan Martin del Potro has survived, and according to my numbers, he poses a serious challenge to Roger Federer tomorrow.  But that isn’t the tightest match.  That honor goes to Isner/Simon, the most dramatic contrast of playing styles in the quarterfinals.  They’ve played once before, at last year’s US Open, when Isner won in four sets, including three tiebreaks.  It was even closer than it sounds–Simon won more than half of the points that day.

Here are the full odds for the rest of the tournament:

Player                       SF      F      W
(1)Novak Djokovic         84.8%  69.0%  44.5%
(12)Nicolas Almagro       15.2%   6.7%   1.6%
(13)Gilles Simon          48.1%  11.5%   3.4%
(11)John Isner            51.9%  12.8%   4.0%  

(9)Juan Martin Del Potro  44.6%  21.0%   8.9%
(3)Roger Federer          55.4%  29.2%  13.9%
David Nalbandian          23.3%   6.5%   1.8%
(2)Rafael Nadal           76.7%  43.2%  21.9%